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FedEx's decline isn't suprising

In the latest sign of the slowing economy, FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) today reported a decline in fiscal third quarter profit and gave disappointing guidance.

Profit was $420 million, or $1.35 per share, compared with $428 million, or $1.38 per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 7 percent or $8.59 billion. The company was expected to earn $1.33 on sales of $8.77 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Though firms often blame the macro environment for their troubles, FedEx has a good excuse. The company said that the economy grew at a slower rate than it expected during the third quarter though it expected a more sustainable growth rate going forward.

Investors, though, weren't so understanding.

Shares of FedEx traded down after the company shaved 5 cents off its forecast for the current quarter. FedEx did reiterate its long-term goal of growing earnings per share by 10 to 15 percent per year though it company said it may not be able to hit that target for fiscal 2008 because of slower economic growth and planned investments in the business, according to Reuters.

Wall Street didn't punish the stock as much as one might expect. Shares were only off about 2 percent in the latest trading, indicating that investors are still bullish on FedEx's prospects. Its shares have declined 4 percent over the past year compared with an 11 percent decline for United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS).

A detailed review of the global economy

Jonathan Laing of Barron's did an interview (subscription required) with GaveKal, a global adviser to financial services firms. GaveKal gave some great stats:
  • Research & development now dwarfs capital spending -- Danaher Corp.'s research spending has jumped from 150% of capital outlays to 300% during this decade. And Analog Devices has also seen a big jump in its R&D-to-capex ratio, increasing from 1.5-to-1 to 6-to-1 this year. Big increases in R&D and the shift of manufacturing to Asia will continue to translate into a more productive U.S. corporation.
  • Concerns about consumer debt levels -- mortgage, credit card and auto debt has plunged from 6% of totals outstanding at the beginning of the 1990s to 1.5% to 2.5% the past few years.
  • Corporate profits remain very strong -- after-tax profits and cash flow as a percentage of GDP exceed 8.5% and 15%, respectively -- very high by historical standards.
  • Trade Deficit at 7% of GDP -- not a concern when measured against U.S. total household net worth which grows about $2.5 trillion per year. A traded deficit of $800 billion is more than offset by growth in U.S. net household wealth.
  • Net foreign debt as a percentage of national net worth is only 4.6%.
  • The earning-yield and dividends for stocks earn investors 9% versus 6% for private equity to borrow money. That is what is fueling the private equity boom. Stocks should do well as long as this disparity exists.
Laing titled his piece Sizzle Inc, referring to GaveKal's optimistic outlook. The premise behind the positive outlook is that the global economy is "on a cusp of a decades-long" deflationary boom. It is a very compelling argument to invest in U.S. stocks.

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Last updated: May 28, 2012: 03:10 PM

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