With gold trading down sharply from its highs, Keith-Fitzerald offers a special report on gold stocks in Money Morning, highlighting three companies that he consider to be the "very best of the best."
"Gold remains a key profit opportunity -- especially if inflation, or even stagflation, is taking hold. It should also help that economic uncertainty is escalating. However, since the economic outlook has grown more uncertain, we've decided to our recommended list down to just three picks:
"The StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is an ETF that tracks the price of gold directly, making it the simplest way to invest in the yellow metal via an ETF. And with a market cap approaching $17 billion, this fund has ample liquidity.
"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is a Toronto-based company with mostly North American production, as well as properties in South America and Africa, and some copper and zinc add-ons. It has a $38 billion market capitalization, so there's plenty of liquidity.
"The recent pullback in commodity prices has opened up this window of opportunity," says resources expert Larry Edelson who reaffirms his long-term bullishness on gold.
In his Real Wealth newsletter, he explains, "If you think the slowdown in the U.S. economy is impacting China and other emerging markets - ground zero for the natural resources boom - think again." Here, he discusses his favorite gold plays.
"Not only are the Chinese and Indian economies expected to surge more than 9% this year, countless other economies throughout Asia, the former Soviet states and Latin American countries are also growing by leaps and bounds.
"As long as this massive new demand continues, natural resources and commodities will continue to soar And investors who use temporary pull-backs in this long-term bull market stand to multiply their money - over and over again - for years to come.
"You must own some gold in this economic environment. Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom because it is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."
"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.
"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.
"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.
"The current environment is one of the most challenging I have seen in the twenty years I have been following the market," says Nate Pile, who has added some ETF hedges to his Nate's Notes portfolio.
"I am also introducing two ETFs this month that can be thought of as 'indirect hedges.' Rather than being a 'short' fund, we are choosing funds that track commodity prices, which in turn, will provide a hedge against any market declines that may result from investor concern about rising inflation.
"In addition, these two new ETFs is may appreciate in value even if the market does rally from here. I actually think there is a very good chance we will make money on these 'commodity ETFs' regardless of what the stock market does next. Anyhow, without further ado, I present to you the following two ETFs:
"The PowerShares Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund (ASE: DBC) is designed to reflect the performance of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, an index that tracks six important commodities (current index weightings approximated in parentheses): light crude (33%), heating oil (19%), wheat (14%), corn (12%), aluminum (12%), and gold (10%).
"Keep your gold for the long-term; it's today's best investment," says Mary Anne and Pamela Aden in The Aden Forecast. "Despite normal ups and downs, we strongly believe you'll be glad that you held hold onto your gold."
"Gold, silver and most of the gold shares are about the only markets to show gains so far this year. Everything else is down, and in many cases down sharply. Gold has recently been hitting new, or multi-year highs against the euro, the Dow Industrials, bonds and oil.
"In other words, it's stronger than these other markets. Gold is outperforming them and the percentage gains are greater in gold compared to all of the other markets.
"Simply put, gold is where you want to be. Silver is good too. These are the best markets. That's why we've consistently stressed keeping a large part of your investments in gold, silver and their shares.
"Will there be a recession or not?" asks Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. In The Aden Forecast they note, "The scales are now tipping to inflation," which they view as bullish for gold and silver.
"Sure, the economy will probably slow down in the months ahead and stagflation is also a likelihood. That is, slower economic growth combined with inflation.
"The Fed and the world's largest central banks are working together in a massive, historical concerted intervention to provide all the money and liquidity that's globally needed to keep things rolling along. Money supply, for instance, is soaring at a 16% growth rate, the most in 47 years.
"The latest producer price figure strongly supported our view since it was the highest in 34 years, showing inflation running at a 38% annualized rate. Since producer prices lead consumer prices, this is a huge red flag that big inflation is coming.
"The new record high in the gold price is telling us the same thing, and so are the record highs in oil and the commodity markets. In other words, if a serious recession were coming, gold and commodities would not be soaring.
"Gold is an inflation barometer and the action in this market alone is signaling that inflation will very likely dominate the economic scene in 2008. Inflation is bad for bond prices. It usually means higher interest rates and this time is not an exception.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Fear or war or nuclear conflagration is not the main reason for owning gold; rather, investors should buy gold to protect against inflation," explains Vivian Lewis, editor of Global Investing Pro, and the top stock picker in last year's Best Stocks report, with her selection of DryShips.
"This is not advice only for US investors. All central banks face a dilemma: On one hand, they can cut interest rates and print money to deflect subprime and credit crunch dangers while letting inflation rip. On the other, they can insist on discipline and inflation fighting, letting the economy's chips fall where they may.
"My top conservative investment idea for 2008 is StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), which is an exchange-traded fund. In fact, the amount of gold held by StreetTracks now exceeds the gold reserves of China. It holds 602.37 tonnes of the yellow metal, whereas China only holds 600 tonnes. (A tonne is a metric measure equal to about 3,520 ounces.)
"US investors can also consider iShares Comex Gold (ASE: IAU). Both are ETFs that own physical gold bullion. However, they track different gold market prices.
"GLD tracks the London fixing and Comex ETF tracks the Chicago commodity price. You can buy whichever one is cheaper at the moment you decide on going for the gold."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Everyone should have some gold, but it is an individual decision as to what best fits one's risk tolerance and personal financial makeup," says resources expert Curtis Hesler, editor of Professional Timing Service.
"Bullion in some form, be it bullion coins or bullion ETF's like StreetTracks Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD), should be fitted into one's portfolio -- for diversification, if no other reason. I would consider this a top speculative idea for 2008.
"However, be mindful that bullion profits, even in the ETF form, are taxed at a higher rate than gold-mining stocks. So, bullion ETF's are perhaps best held in a tax-sheltered account, but that is an individual call."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"The commodity markets have been rising strongly in recent years, propelled by growing demand," says Mary Anne Aden, editor of The Aden Forecast.
"The ongoing boom in China and other emerging markets has been driving these markets higher and there's no sign this will end any time soon. This has consistently placed commodity-related stocks like energy, natural resource and precious metals into the top performing stock category. The same will likely apply in 2008.
"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 for investors to take advantage of the rise in precious metals is by buying the StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an exchange-traded fund. Since gold's rise still appears to be in its early phase, it should do well in the year ahead based on demand alone.
"The same is also true of energy. China's demand has been a primary factor driving the oil price higher. With the Olympics coming to China this Summer, this demand is unlikely to diminish. A good way to benefit is to buy the Energy Select SPDR (ASE: XLE), my favorite speculative ideas for 2008."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My top conservative play for 2008 is a repeat of my top pick from last year, StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD)," says Mark Leibovit, editor of VRYTrader and last year's #1 rated market timer by Timer Digest.
"StreetTracks Gold seeks to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses. The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets.
"The gold held by the trust will only be sold on an as-needed basis to pay trust expenses, in the event the trust terminates and liquidates its assets, or as otherwise required by law or regulation. The trust is not managed like an active investment vehicle, and it's not registered as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
The allure of gold in an uncertain market has driven its price up precipitously in the past few years, to the point that many are speculating $1,000 an ounce is within reach. Is this the right time for you to move some of your investment into the metal?
According to John Hathaway of Toqueville Asset Management's Gold Fund, as interviewed by Barron's, gold still has a lot of upside. For investors looking for alternatives during the liquidity squeeze and nervous over the Fed rate cuts and its potential inflationary effect, gold offers an interesting opportunity. He believes that, if consumer confidence in the market continues to wane, gold could certainly reach $1,000 an ounce. He also makes the interesting observation that in 1980 the ratio of all gold ever mined to the sum value of all stocks and bonds was around 20%. The same ratio today is around 3%. Scarcity, therefore, works to support gold prices. Increasing environmental regulations, questionable governments and the growing costs of mining all suggest the metal will remain scarce for the foreseeable future.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Pamela Anne Aden, turns to gold for both her favorites for 2007 -- selecting the exchange-traded fund streetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) as her conservative investment and Market Vectors Gold Miners Trust (ASE: GDX), also an ETF, as her top speculation.
In The Aden Forecast, the resource sector advisor notes, "There are several reasons why the metals and commodities markets are likely headed higher in the upcoming years. Aside from the ongoing demand out of China and other emerging nations, gross financial imbalances are taking their toll too.
"In recent years, the U.S. has gone heavily into debt. At the same time, China has built up the largest cash reserves in the world. The end result is the largest U.S. budget and trade deficits in history, and this has caused the U.S. dollar to fall over the past five years.
"Since gold and the dollar generally move in opposite directions, these imbalances have also been an important factor driving gold higher. This major financial shift is unlikely to be resolved soon. That means gold and gold shares are poised to rise further in 2007.
"One way to take advantage of these trends is buying the gold ETF, streetTracks Gold, which tracks the price of gold bullion and is a conservative way to invest in this market. The ETF for gold shares -- Market Vectors Gold Miners -- which tracks individual gold mining companies, is a more speculative way to play the sector."