Luxury jewelry store chain Tiffany & Co. (TIF) is trading lower today as Wall Street awaits its fourth quarter earnings report on Monday, but by most accounts analysts are expecting to see strong earnings from the company.

Going into Monday's earnings report, analysts are forecasting the company to report $1.13 a share. For the same period last year Tiffany had earnings of $0.85 per share, so if it is able to match analyst estimates it would mark a very respectable 32% jump year over year.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Southern Copper (SCCO) to buy from hold to reflect valuation and positive near-term catalysts. The firm raised its target for shares to $38 from $35.
• JMP Securities upgraded Ultimate Software (ULTI) to outperform from market perform. The firm cites the company's expanding employee base for the upgrade. The firm has a $40 target on the stock.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Aeropostale (ARO) to neutral from underweight following the company's Q4 results and raised its target for shares to $31 from $24.
• Kennametal (KMT) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman.
• Lifetime Brands (LCUT) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Barrington.
• Volvo (VOLVY) was upgraded to overweight from underweight at JPMorgan.

While the past couple years have been tough for private equity firms, the problems at Cerberus Capital Management have been quite painful. After all, the firm got crushed on investments in companies like GMAC and Chrysler.

But this does not mean everything has been bad. For example, Cerberus has filed for a $100 million IPO of Tower Automotive.

Thanks to a trillion dollars in credit losses write-downs on mortgage-related securities in 2007 and 2008, financial companies around the world had a lot of capital to recapture. So, in the first half of 2009, they issued stock. More than half the new shares to come out worldwide in those six months were issued by banks and brokers. All this stock, of course, translated to fees for investment banks. In a strange way, consequently, the financial industry healed itself.

According to Bloomberg, investment banking fees surged 13% in 2009, from $53.1 billion to $59.8 billion. This is still far short of the $86.9 billion record set in 2007, but it's at least a step in the right direction. Even with the surge of bank and broker shares issued in the first two quarters last year, total activity was still lower than in 2008.

Goldman Sachs (GS) has topped its previous record of $100 million dollar trading days. According to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the bank made at least $100 million in net trading revenue on 131 days last year. Its previous record, set in 2008, was for 90 days of $100 million plus revenue.

Last year, during 263 trading days, Goldman lost money on only 19 days. Otherwise, it hit the jackpot pretty much every other day.

Yes it can. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) can outperform Apple Inc. (AAPL) in 2010. That was my thesis in December (see Buffett's Berkshire vs Jobs' Apple for 2010?) and I still believe all the Apple hype in the world will still succumb to a solid value proposition in the long run.

While Apple was reaching new all time highs Berkshire was treading water through 2009. However, after a monster run-up Apple is taking a breather.

New York State comptroller Thomas DiNapoli has issued the numbers for Wall Street bonuses in 2009. The total was $20.3 billion, up 17% from the previous year.

Wall Street profits totaled an unprecedented $55 billion in 2009. The average bonus was $123,850 dollars.

The odds that you'll have a long, healthy life are better than ever ... and that creates a pretty hefty problem for pension funds. They need to find new ways to meet their obligations in a turbulent market, and the risk that you'll hang on forever is approaching every day. So, unless we're able to pass legislation encouraging mass suicide among the Baby Boomers (it's a joke, people, read Christopher Buckley's Boomsday to see how it shakes out), pension fund managers have a hefty dose of risk to offload -- fast. They're looking at the insurance-linked securities market as a way to handle the problem.

All joking aside, pension funds and insurers are translating to total pension liabilities of $19 trillion in the U.S. and $3 trillion in the UK, according to a Reuters report using data from International Financial Services London. And, an increase in longevity by one year could translate into a 3% jump in liabilities. Put simply, the IFSL's data means another $600 billion in the U.S. and $90 billion in the UK. Basically, everything we do to stick around longer (not that I'm discouraging it) leads to a higher and higher price tag.

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

Paul Volcker was chairman of the Federal Reserve during the 1970s and 1980s when OPEC raised the price of oil from about $2.50 per barrel to $30.00 per barrel overnight. Since oil is integral to all parts of our economy, we saw the worst inflation ever. Volcker had to raise interest rates to near 20% to break the back of the inflation. He is no shrinking violet.

Now, again, he is center stage. His latest proposal, called the "Volcker Rule," calls for banks that do proprietary trading to give up their banking status. Goldman Sachs (GS) and other financial institutions acquired bank status during the financial crisis. One condition for receiving TARP money was that institutions had to be a bank. The Treasury department allowed them to become banks, and they did receive TARP money.

If you were to calculate a headlines/efficacy ratio for government and corporate leaders, executive pay czar Kenneth Feinberg would have to rank pretty high on the "most press for least accomplished" list.

Now that Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are out from the somewhat watchful eye of Mr. Feinberg, he has only American International Group (AIG), the car companies, and GMAC to meddle with at little benefit to anyone.

So what does he do to keep himself occupied? He chats on the phone with Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein about how that company can better align pay for its executives, even though he has no authority over -- or interest in -- that company's policies.

The catastrophe bond market will be heating up over the next few months, thanks to a combination of favorable market conditions and new investors. Michael Halsband, Vice President at Goldman Sachs (GS), said to Reuters that the cat bond issuance market got off to an early start in January, despite the fact that the first quarter is usually rather quiet. This follows the recent closing of the year's first cat bond, Foundation Re III, by The Hartford (HIG).

According to Halsband, "From January to June this year, $2.7 billion of transactions will mature and most of that is expected to be placed straight back into the ILS [insurance-linked securities] sector," continuing, "In addition, we believe between $1.5 and $2.5 billion of new capital has flowed into dedicated ILS funds and along with the $2.7 billion of maturities. Around $5 billion will be available to be put to work in the cat bond sector."

This is a fascinating story -- a behind-the-scenes scenario that is the stuff of conspiracies.

During the housing bubble, a huge number of questionable mortgages were created in what is called the subprime market. Many of the home buyers had shaky credit and, eventually, fell into foreclosure. Goldman Sachs (GS) held some of these securities but wanted protection against default. Where do you buy such insurance? American International Group (AIG), of course.

Under the terms of the insurance, Goldman was entitled to collect payments if the securities fell below certain agreed-upon values. You guessed it. When the housing bubble started to burst, Goldman demanded $2 billion from AIG to cover its losses.

Goldman Sachs has elevated McDonald's (MCD) to conviction buy from buy and upped its 12-month price target to $75 from $73.

According to the brokerage, McDonald's is weathering the current economic crisis thanks to a combination of positive same-store sales and accelerating margin gains. Goldman added that consensus estimates underappreciate this fact, which should bring about some upward earnings revisions during 2010.

The current investigation of the American International Group (AIG) bailout by Congress has brought to light the inner workings and secret deals that were made.

Center stage in the investigation is the New York Federal Reserve. There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks that operate under the supervision of Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, chaired by Ben Bernanke. Member bank presidents are appointed by the nine member board, who themselves are appointed by other bankers.