The general consensus on yesterday's announced partnership between Google and Dell to pre-load Google's search toolbar and homepage on Dell PCs seems to be: Google + , Microsoft - and Dell ~. According to Moors & Cabot research VP Cindy Shaw, as quoted in the New York Times, "It's a slight positive for Dell ... But it will not solve Dell's larger issues. It's not going to be what gets people to buy a Dell."

Dell's bigger issues include a major decline in profit, and no one seems to think this partnership will result in huge additional revenues for the nation's biggest PC manufacturer. Good Morning Silicon Valley puts most of the analysis in their headline regarding the deal, wondering, "How soon can we get these Google apps added to the Dell De-crapifier?", and mentioning that it's a net positive for Google in the search wars: "It's a turnkey solution for Google as well, at least when it comes to wresting control of PC users' default settings away from Microsoft." Meanwhile, Garett Rogers at Googling Google "didn't realize this was news" and hopes for Google software on every Dell sold and -- no, that's not all -- wants even more deals in the future.

For Amit Agarwal, it's not the smiley happy party it seems to be for the Google fans 'round the net. He warns glumly in a tantalizing headline that the deal is "Dangerous for Desktop Search Industry." He worries that default-setting-not-changing users will "miss the innovations from other desktop search companies" and wonders how long it is until Microsoft runs to the DOJ, as Google just did in anger over Vista's default-happy browser. Steve Bryant from Infoweek seems to agree with the general negative feelings towards Google, calling the company an "infovore."

It seems only yesterday when Microsoft's position atop the lucrative desktop software market was so unassailable that the FTC had to bust them for monopolistic behavior. Oh wait: it was yesterday. That's why news of Dell and Google agreeing to install Google software on Dell PCs met with a round of gasps heard from Wall Street to Fleet Street.

It's been 10 years since Microsoft first began making deals to pre-install its software on home computers, and the bet was a good one, prompting Microsoft to a seemingly insurmountable lead in the desktop software market. But now Google software will sit in Microsoft's place.

The impact on Microsoft could be stunning. While sales from the "Client" division only make up about 29% of Microsoft's sales as of the most recent quarter's results, those sales represent 63% of the company's operating income. Were the client sales to be impacted only by 10% as a result of this Dell/Google deal, or about 3% of the overall revenue, 7% or more of the operating income would be erased: a serious threat indeed. Fortunes are made or lost on high-single-digit drops in operating income.