Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) stock is falling after GPS chipmaker SiRF Technology Holdings (NASADQ: SIRF) cut its first-quarter revenue forecast due to lower-than-expected demand in a weakened economic environment. This is bad news for GRMN, since it implies lower sales for it as well. GRMN is also under pressure from news that consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on GRMN.
After hitting a one-year low of $52.18 in April, the stock hit a one-year high of $125.68 in October. This morning, GRMN opened at $59.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $57.70 and a high of $59.97. As of 12:15, GRMN is trading at $59.78, down $2.60 (-4.2%). The chart for GRMN looks bearish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $75 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in two months as long as GRMN is below $75 at May expiration. Garmin would have to rise by more than 24% before we would start to lose money.


Boston Globe reporter Hiawatha Bray is 

