Sam Zell has gotten really rich without my help. But I have to wonder what is motivating the "grave dancer" to buy Tribune Co. (NYSE:TRB).
Of all of the things that that Zell could spend with the billions he's earned from the sale of his Equity Office Properties company, Tribune seems to be an odd choice. I know he's from Chicago and Tribune, owner of the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, is based there. But it's going to take more than civic pride to turn around Tribune.
The trends in the newspaper business are lousy. Though publishers are gaining Internet advertising revenue, it's not at a fast enough rate to off-set the decline in their core print business. Young people don't read papers and probably aren't going to start anytime soon.
Maybe Zell can prove naysayers like me wrong. Maybe private equity players will take an interest in Gannett Co. (NYSE:GCI), New York Times Co. (NYSE:NYT), and other publishers. But the newspapers continue to decline at faster rates than even the most pessimistic forecasts.
As the New York Times points out today, newspapers had an awful February. Advertising plunged 14 percent at USA Today, 7.5 percent at the Times (where I've done freelance writing), 5 percent at Tribune and McClatchy Co. (NYSE:MNI). Believe it or not before investors LIKED McClatchy before it acquired Knight Ridder last year.
I don't know what Zell and the members of the billionaire boys club who suddenly fancy themselves as William Randolph Hearst think they can do as publishers that the current crop of managers haven't already tried. Tribune, whose papers are mostly based in big cities where competition for readers is intense, seems like a particularly difficult company to turn around.
Like I said earlier, Zell has done fine in his career without my help. I only hope he understands the rough road ahead for Tribune.



