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Fed pause could be break for the Dollar

With investors awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, the focus of the decision will be felt in the currency markets. In an AP report: "The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver another interest rate cut to millions of people and businesses this week, although that could be the last break they get for a while."

This scenario may be just what the doctor ordered for the dollar. In anticipation of the announcement, the greenback has staged a minor technical rally, albeit on lackluster volume. If the currency market would get the news that future rate cuts are on hold, the dollar may very well start a recovery.

The reason for the recovery is twofold: Firstly, there is interest rate differential. This has been the major driver in the currency market over the last few years. If the Fed would signal an end to rate cuts, by definition this would mean that the differential would no longer widen. The second reason is economic growth. The US was the first major country in the world to enter this period of lackluster growth and with the steps taken( fiscal stimulus and rate cuts), the right measures were implemented to make sure that the US is the first country to get out of the mess. My hunch is that we will see currency markets move away from the 'interest rate differential trade' to that of one focused more on growth.

As I have mentioned many times, the situation in the Euro-zone is nothing to write home about. Surging inflation, slow growth, the banking sector in turmoil. Sounds familiar. The only difference is that the ECB has done nothing to try and right the ship, while the Fed has. Ultimately, when the US gets back to above-average growth late this year or early '09, the aggressive stance the Fed took will be viewed as the reason for the recovery.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/29/08

New $5 bill: Lincoln 'greenback' is purple and gray

The term "greenback" may be going out of style when it comes to the new $5 bill. The newest, high-tech Lincoln five-dollar bill was unveiled this morning by U.S. government officials just as the U.S. dollar hit an all-time low against the euro. How charming!

The newest $5 bill represents the latest technology in the ongoing quest to thwart global counterfeiters, as it features newer pastel colors and watermarks of the number 5 instead of a watermark like the one used on the $100 bill (featuring Benjamin Franklin's head).

Of course, those are not the only changes. The security thread (seen when you hold a $5 bill up to a light) has been moved to a different location than in the $100 bill. The $5 bill was not actually going to be redesigned until U.S. customs officials saw that counterfeiters were bleaching existing $5 bills and printing $100 values on them due to the security thread being in the same place on both bills. Also, the border around Lincoln's head has been removed and a series of purple stars (with small, yellow 5 numerals) will take its place. The center of the bill also features a purple color that fades into gray at the bill's edges.

It's interesting that the launch will not happen until next spring, to give vending machine operators time to upgrade for the new bill, among other things (heh). Until then, government officials can continue to add to the roster of 3,945 arrests related to counterfeit bill production in 2006, with an estimated loss of $62 million. That means the average loss would be about $15,716 per arrested offender. Newsflash to the government: $15,000? I'm quite sure the loss was more than that. Not a good ROI especially when you consider the costs of the newest color laser printers, eh?

Comfort Zone Investing: What the falling dollar means to you

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

As of this writing, a Euro costs $1.37. That's the most one has ever cost. A pound costs $2.02, not seen for decades. What's with the dollar, and as an investor, should you care?

The answer is, of course you should. You know the BMW you lust for? That will cost you more. It's paid for with Euros. How about Earl Grey tea? That will be going up in price, too. You need pounds to buy that. Not here in the U.S. We still transact with good ol' greenbacks here. But the store selling the tea or the auto dealer prepping your new ride has to pay the manufacturers in Pound Sterling and Euros respectively. That means less of those items will be sold because the law of supply and demand says that when prices go up, fewer things are sold.

As an investor, you have to check your portfolio for any holdings headquartered in Europe. If they have large sales to the U.S., those revenues are going to shrink. Profits will follow.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: What the falling dollar means to you

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 28, 2012: 03:24 PM

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