Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) is looking at every possible way to increase sales and discount store market share this year. Part of that plan will soon be to sell fresh food and products in up to 100 of its normal merchandise stores to supplant sales at its merchandise/grocery SuperTarget locations that already exist.

Call me sentimental, but there are many things I miss about my old stomping grounds of Cincinnati, Ohio. The trendy but well-run restaurants lining the Hyde Park neighborhood. Joseph-Beth, the best bookstore I've ever entered. Certain karaoke bars. Cincinnati chili, of course.

And Kroger. Yes, Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), headquartered in the Queen City, is the top grocery chain in the country, but has no locations in Chicago. I miss its store-brand crackers, its salad bar, and occasionally, even its commercials.

Is it really possible to make money in this market?

Surprisingly, the answer is yes. Despite the market being down more than 10% at the start of this year, there have been a number of winners that have done quite well.

As I have said many times, the current environment is very unique. Nobody has ever seen anything like this. To survive, one must throw out the old playbook and adapt to the new reality.

Time was, we all felt rich. And we all felt entitled to spend money on ridiculous items at chocolate stores like Godiva, coffee shops like Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX) and, yes, upscale supermarkets like Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFMI).

Those days are long gone, and even today's reduced expectations for this extremely well-run company are possibly too optimistic. EPS for 2008 were down 20% and company shares, floating in the $7-$10 range, are well off of 52-week highs.

A basket of 16 basic food items costs $48.68, up 10.5% from a year ago, the American Farm Bureau Federation said in a press release that marketwatch.com covered on Friday.

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Friday many factors are driving grocery prices higher, including higher ingredient costs, higher energy prices, and rising demand for food in developing countries around the world (especially China, India, Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East).

A few grocery store tips:

Wang says that while there are many savvy shoppers in the states, many others are new to shopping. Wang, who worked in a grocery for three years while in college, offered his tips on how to lower your grocery bill:

• Stick to a shopping list and shun 'impulse' buys: Wang says this is perhaps the biggest money saver. "From the moment you walk in the store, grocery stores are designed to get you to buy more items than you plan to buy," Wang said. "You are bombarded with stimuli that tempts you to spend, and it works, so stick to your list. If it's not on the list, ask yourself if you need the item, or are buying merely on impulse."

• Coupon card: Most grocery chains offer a coupon card that automatically deducts for items on sale. Sign up for one and use it. But evaluate the coupons some cash registers dispense with a sales receipt. "Ask yourself if you need it or if it is on your list," Wang said.
  

• Evaluate buying in bulk. "Buying larger sizes usually lowers cost per food purchased but ask yourself if you will need and use the item," Wang said. "If the item is not your list, don't buy it, as you could be succumbing to an impulse buy, which will drive your food bill up."

Much of the U.S. economy -- save the oil/oil services sector -- is in a consolidation and right-sizing mode, or something resembling it. Retail chains, home builders, auto manufacturers etc. are all thinning their employee and production ranks, in anticipation of a period ahead with lighter demand. And most investors and readers all familiar with the consolidation in the investment banking sector.

Add another sector to the list: the grocery store sector. After more than a decade of building bigger and bigger stores (and superstores) retailers are experimenting with considerably smaller grocery stores that feature prepared meals in gourmet delis, and fresh produce, The New York Times reported Wednesday.

Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) has opened a smaller-format store in Southern California, Jewel-Osco is building one in Chicago and Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NYSE: WFMI) is considering opening smaller stores, The Times reported.

The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (NYSE: GAP), better known as SuperFresh and Pathmark grocery stores, is in the midst of a remodel and turnaround that seems to be working.

It is, however, a bit difficult to parse an earnings release that states "our annualized run-rate of synergies is approximately $100 million." Good thing that the "format driven capital investment program" continues to improve. Clearly, CEO Eric Claus wants investors to believe these factoids are positive and meaningful pieces of information.

In more concrete terms, same store sales are up 3% and the company is remodeling many of its locations in the New York-New Jersey area in order to expand its market share. Sales increased $1.2 billion to $2.9 billion, so the trend is in the right direction. Quarterly adjusted income from operations was $16 million, compared to an $8 million adjusted loss from operations one year ago. 1Q loss per share was $0.51 compared to $1.54 loss per share one year ago.

Given the steep rise in food prices, forecast to worsen into the winter, A&P is well positioned to attract value-driven grocery shoppers. The stock has recently fallen under $18, though it is inching back up today.

Mammoth grocery-store chain The Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR) recently posted very solid third quarter (3Q) results. Total sales increased 10% to $16 billion for the quarter. This marks the 10th quarter in a row that Kroger has posted sales increases of at least 3%. Year-to-date (YTD) total sales increased 7.6% to $53 billion. 3Q net earnings were equally impressive, $253.8 million or $0.37 per diluted share. This represents a $39 million improvement over 3Q 2006 net earnings. Grocery stores have notoriously low profit margins, so it speaks well of Kroger management that Kroger earned these good numbers while increasing profit margins slightly, expanding capital investment to $555 million, growing its own line of organic goods, while simultaneously decreasing general administrative expenses.

YTD net earnings stand at $857.6 million or $1.22 per diluted share, a 20% increase over 2006 results. Given the strong comparable stores sales growth, Kroger CEO David Dillon has raised FY 2007 guidance to reflect 5% overall sales growth, which will exceed the previous guidance figure of $1.67 per diluted share. Kroger repurchased 16.5 million shares in 3Q 2007, for a total of $442 million, with $200 million leftover for 4Q buybacks.

Investors were perhaps hoping for even better news from Kroger. The stock lost over 8% of its value in the previous week, and closed at $25.88 on 19 December, down $0.29.

The market's choppy/consolidating pattern (or perhaps worse) continues, with several unknowns weighing on the minds of investors. It goes without saying then, that in this market defensive stocks represent a prudent addition to almost any portfolio. The grocery store sector is a dependable defensive, and in this category, Safeway is worth a review.

Safeway Inc. (NYSE: SWY) is one of North America's largest grocery store chains, with more than 1,700 stores, primarily in the West, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic United States. Safeway also operates the Vons, Dominick's Finer Foods, Carr-Gottstein (Alaska), Genuardi's, and Randall's Food Market Chains (Texas). SWY also has an international presence via ownership of about 125 Casa Ley food/variety stores in Mexico.

Analysts expect 2008 sales to increase about 3%-5% to about $44 billion, up from about $41.8 billion in 2007, as Safeway increasingly sees the fruits of a store remodeling campaign. Gross margins should remain adequate. The Reuters fiscal year (FY) 2007/2008 earnings per share (EPS) consensus estimates for SWY are $2.01 to $2.24.

Other positives: Safeway has struck the right balance between its high quality/wide selection Safeway stores and Safeway supercenters: the former, via remodeling, better reflect middle-income customers' needs, and the later have displayed solid traffic. This winning formula leads many analysts to conclude that Safeway should be able to build on its 8% grocery store sector market share.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on intensifying competition: wholesale operations and warehouses represent the biggest threat, as they boast comparable economies of scale.

The First Call mean rating for SWY is: Hold [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $39.00 [high: $42, low: $34].

Stock Analysis: Safeway is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 2 years should be rewarded from SWY's shares. Sell/Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $23.

Grocery store chain Winn Dixie Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: WINN) is emerging from bankruptcy with remodeled stores, better shopping conditions and product mix, improved customer service, and strict attention to cost management. Same store sales for 1Q 2008 are essentially flat, but the company posted a huge reduction in net loss, $800,000, down from $24.6 million net loss one year ago, a $23.8 million improvement. Net income for 1Q 2008 was $1.6 billion, up $11 million. Gross profits increased $22 million to $446.4 million, and the 30 remodeled stores have registered increased foot traffic. Winn Dixie plans to remodel a total of 75 stores in 2008.

Winn Dixie is also focusing on cost control as it emerges from Chapter 11. Administrative and promotional expenses have been slashed, as have costs at the company's distribution facilities. Winn Dixie still faces significant capital expenditures for store remodeling, at least $140 million. Legal costs to emerge from bankruptcy will run in the $5 million to $7 million range.

Even in the midst of a difficult and complex multi-year turnaround, Winn Dixie has acted to gain the goodwill of consumers and investors. Winn Dixie remodeled and reopened one of the first full-service grocery stores in lower east side New Orleans to help the city rebuild. The company is on the front lines in the fight against breast cancer, providing educational materials in its stores and sponsoring free mammograms for women without access to health care services.

The stock currently trades around $19. Given the success of the company's turnaround thus far, this is a stock for bargain hunters to investigate.

A piece in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) looks at how Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) decision to cut back on its supercenter expansion will effect the revenues and earnings of grocery stores as well as companies that supply grocery stores.

Some suggest that Wal-Mart's biggest suppliers, companies like Kellogg (NYSE: K) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS), could be hurt by the cutback in expansion. But it seems like it could just as easily swing the other way: Will people really consume less cereal because there isn't a new Wal-Mart in town? I doubt it, and suppliers could benefit from the greater pricing power that they enjoy with smaller companies as opposed to Wal-Mart, which wants to buy everything a little (and sometimes a lot) cheaper than everyone else.

I'm a little bit puzzled at how negatively analysts are seeing this news as being for the suppliers. While it's true that Wal-Mart makes up a huge portion of the business of many food companies, the sales that were going to go to Wal-Mart will now go to its competitors, who will be able to move more product without a new competitor in town. And, with few exceptions, sales to companies like Kroger will probably carry higher gross margins than sales to the world's biggest retailer.

The major grocery chains are, of course, jumping for joy at this news. Trying to compete with Wal-Mart, especially on price, is extremely difficult for every one of its competitors, and grocery stores normally lose a massive amount of market share when a new Wal-Mart supercenter moves in.

The only loser here may be the consumer, who will have to pay more for groceries.

The best way to beat Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is to avoid trying to copy it, and some grocery stores are finally figuring that out. After years of trying to compete with the big box on price, which is impossible, they're now trying to offer consumers what Wal-Mart can't offer: A less hectic shopping environment, better service, and a generally more pleasant experience. And they're finding out that many, many consumers are willing to pay a a little extra for that.

Grocers are finding that they can beat Wal-Mart with services like prepared foods, and consumers like that stores like Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) are rarely out of stock on items, a common problem at Wal-Mart supercenters. Some consumers are also realizing that by following the weekly specials, they can sometimes save money by shopping at traditional grocery stores.

The moral of the story is clear: Most mom and pop stores, and even huge chains like Kroger, will never really be able to compete with Wal-Mart on price. So why bother trying? When a Wal-Mart opens up nearby, they will lose some customers. But there is an ample market for quality service and a good shopping experience, the two things that Wal-Mart really can't provide.

When looking at ways to compete, companies have to ask themselves "What can I do that my competitor can't?" After finally realizing that they won't win in a price-war with Wal-Mart, they've given up that battle. And that just might be the first step toward victory.

Who says you can't save the planet and be stylish?

Last month, the city of San Francisco banned the use of nonbiodegradable plastic grocery bags, and other metropolitan areas are considering similar proposals. Just in time, designers Hermes and Stella McCartney have gotten into the reusable grocery-tote business, created for shoppers who need to show off their haute couture while they dash out for Romaine and instant oatmeal. The Hermes version will hit U.S. stores this summer. Made of "hand-wrought" silk, it carries a price tag of $960 (roughly equal to the amount I spend on groceries over the course of six months). McCartney's offering is a bargain, at just $495 for organic canvas.

A fan of committing to help the environment without the highway robbery? For 60 bucks, you can get a FEED Bag, the proceeds from which provide enough nourishment for one child for an entire school year (where, exactly, do the profits for the Hermes and McCartney bags wind up?). Endorsed by first niece Lauren Bush, the FEED Bag craze seems to be sweeping the nation; there's a four-to-six week wait for the canvas tote on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN).

For the bargain price of $1.99 each, you can pick up a reusable canvas tote or two at Trader Joe's. Next time I'm at my favorite natural-foods chain, I must remember to do so. I already have a great one, five years old and solid as ever, from The Strand. And it didn't even cost me a week's paycheck.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and watch out for more Battle of the Brands posts.

There exists, somewhere between the fearsome mass-ness of the mainstream grocery store and the high-pitched good works of the coop, farmer's market, or CSA, a world in which low prices are valued slightly higher than locality of the source but, more than anything, the products must be good. Fair-trade, organic, without trans-fatty acids, with fewer artificial colorings or preservatives or Disney characters than all the other products.

It's the world of the natural foods market. A world dominated by two very dissimilar and yet, from a target market perspective, nearly identical competitors: Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Trader Joe's, a unit of German private company Aldi Group.

Walking into a store -- or simply gazing at one from across the street -- you have a very different picture. On one corner, in the midst of a posh shopping area or trendy boutique-spattered neighborhood, Whole Foods, with its glistening crates of fresh produce, honeydew melons, purple potatoes, and blood oranges piled high in an abundance of exoticism. The doors open smoothly, the merchandise is displayed beautifully, and a high-ceilinged eating area is often overflowing with customers enjoying their deli purchases. Customers enter slowly, looking around as if discovering a stunning architectural landmark for the first time.

Grocery stores are no strangers to leveraged buyouts. Back in the roaring 1980s, they were a juicy target for private equity firms.

Well, according to a piece in the Wall Street Journal, we may see a comeback in activity in the sector. The paper says that Kroger (NYSE: KR) is a buyout target.

I can see why. In light of the competition – such as from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.(NYSE: WMT) – there is lots of pressure on traditional grocery stores to make changes. Also, valuations are reasonable.

Kroger certainly has a big footprint. There are 2,468 stores in 31 states (with more than two dozen brands such as Ralph's and Fred Meyer). The company is either ranked #1 or #2 in 38 of its 44 biggest markets.

Lately, Kroger's stock price has been rallying and sports a market cap of $20 billion. If you throw in the long term debt, the company has an enterprise value of $27 billion. That means the company is selling at about 8X EBITDA, which is at a level where a deal can get done.

Who are the buyers? None were mentioned. Although, it looks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is the financial advisor for Kroger.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.