As is often the case, growth and recovery in America begins at ground level. Current upbeat news from regional food producers is signaling good news for many companies, including Deere & Company (DE). While developing industrial bases such as China and India have taken on the lion's share of mid to heavy manufacturing duties, they are also developing increased needs to feed hungry work forces. Indeed, they are also developing the capital to feed those needs.

The spin-off from this morphing consumption dynamic is a surge of growth in America's agricultural and food production sectors. Indications are that the increased demands being put upon American agricultural output is fueling an increased demand for heavy weight farm tractors and is requiring food processing facility expansions. "Sales of 100-horsepower tractors, which cost about $75,000 to $100,000 each, were up 27 percent last month over the same month last year, said Charlie O'Brien, vice president of agricultural services for The Association of Equipment Manufacturers, in an Associated Press interview.

Institutional investors are sometimes chastised for placing too much emphasis on a given economic statistic.

And with good reason: one positive or negative data point doesn't make a trend, and equally significant -- the very data point investors claim 'signals' the start of new bullish (or bearish) trend, frequently is revised, sometimes substantially -- making the previous bullish or bearish conclusion look premature, if not irrational.

That said, there are those 'telling stats' that offer a binocular view -- what may be ahead for the U.S. economy down the road. And one is: durable goods orders excluding transportation goods [PDF download].

With the New York Times' headlines from Prechter's version of the Elliott Wave calling for a Dow 1000 tsunami to Krugman promoting a Third Depression, and with everyone trumpeting safe havens at any price, I continue to like our contrarian stance suggesting that near-term pessimism has peaked, making growth today's best investment.

The stage for such growth is obviously located where economic activity and job creation are on the rise (without the aid of stimulus plans). Looking at the IMF's recently released and upgraded 2010 global growth forecast, and as set against our more balanced mix, I'll wager growth makes even sound near-term investment sense... and at today's fretful prices, bargains buffer some of such a venture's risk.

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and are visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: The normal labor market pattern is for initial jobless claims to decline substantially as company lay-offs subside, and as more companies maintain current staffing levels and start hiring. But what if jobless claims persist at a high level, even after the U.S. economy reaches the condition of a strong expansion? That would be indicative of another dynamic in the U.S. job market.

Back in the late '90s all you had to do was put a ".com" after your official name, and you were golden. Investors bought your stock with a frenzy, never mind the details. It was the fact that the company was on the Internet, that's what mattered. Basic stock analysis? Forget about it. Didn't need it. The company was on the Web. Good enough for investors.

Analysts were digging deep into rationalizations on how to pump these stocks even higher. The usual numbers didn't apply, like price to earnings, because, well, there were no earnings. They were coming. Sometime. Way in the future. What mattered was the number of eyeballs that a site grabbed. The reasoning: the more eyeballs that looked at a site, the bigger the potential to convert those viewers into buyers. The only problem: very few viewers clicked on the banner ads. They saw them, but simply ignored them, much like hitting the mute button on their TVs.

Tuesday's upbeat data point: the International Monetary Fund is now forecasting that the global economy will grow 3.9% in 2010, up from the earlier forecast of 3.1% growth in October 2009.

The global economy grew a scant 1.3% in 2009, equivalent to a global recession -- the world's first since the end of World War II. The IMF also expects the global economy to growth 4.3% in 2011.

What's more, the IMF also raised its 2010 GDP growth forecast for the United States to 2.7%, up from the earlier 2.6% estimate. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in 2009, using the IMF's methodology and data. Meanwhile, the developed world is expected to growth 2.1%, in 2010, after an -0.7% contraction in 2009.

China's economy is expected to grow 10.0% in 2010, leading a 6.0% emerging market rebound. The IMF sees India growing 7.7%; Russia, 3.6%; Brazil, 4.7%; Mexico, 4.0%.

New York Times (NYT) Columnist Paul Krugman, among others, has pointed out that it's way too early to think in terms of ending fiscal/stimulus. The economic expansion has barely begun -- let alone achieved self-sustaining status -- and the premature withdrawal of stimulus increases the likelihood of a double-dip recession, Krugman said.

Further, the view from here argues that investors need to keep in mind that U.S. economic fundamentals have not placed the economy on a steady-growth track -- not yet. What we have is one quarter (Q3 2009) of GDP growth. That's it.

For months now the dreaded "R" word has been floating around, and while most analysts are quick to point out that the technical definition of a recession has not been reached at this point, the signs are definitely pointing to a looming recession on the horizon. Now, there are a large selection of economists who are stating that the economy has already slid into a recession.

According to a poll by the Wall Street Journal, 70% of 51 economists who were polled over the past week are now reporting that the economy has moved into a recession.

Before we move ahead, let's take a look at the technical definition of a recession:

In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year

Fellow writer Zac Bissonnette highlighted the interesting (but somewhat controversial) story in American Apparel (AMEX: APP) about a week ago. He did a good job of explaining the company itself as well as the perverted CEO.

Although I think the questions surrounding the CEO's "lifestyle" are pertinent, I think they should be overlooked in favor of getting a piece of this high growth name at such an opportunistic time to buy. In short, I think the stock makes sense after a recent pullback.

Fundamentally, American Apparel appears very confusing at first. The older generation of readers is probably very baffled as to why a company that sells light-colored, tight fitting clothes is in the middle of a humongous growth cycle, understandably so. However, I'm more aiming this post towards those members of the younger generation who know just how powerful this concept is.

You've been hearing and reading all the bad news about the credit industry and all the nasty things that its difficulties might mean to you, but is anyone considering the positive outcome that this major reset of the American economy could mean in the long run? Being that I'm a cynical optimist (an oxymoron, I know), I have a perspective on this mess which many people might not be thinking about.

I've been telling you since late 2006 that we have entered a world economic shake down and that the biggest hindrance to further growth in the American economy is the fact that the balance sheets of American corporations are full. I cite the sudden spate of major acquisitions in pursuit of profit creation via consolidation as support for my opinion. As modern economics are conventionally structured, the only basis for economic health is steady growth. That makes the case for the necessity of this period of down slide only too palpable.

If we as a nation can financially hold it together for the next couple of years and swallow the huge bitter pill of a recession, when we come out on the other side of this mess we shall reap the incredible rewards of the "green economy" which is now in the process of being built. Today we are planting the seeds of America's next economic boom and I'm sorry to report that most of the rest of the world has mistakenly adopted our old patterns.

Evidence of a successful product transition for Savvis Inc (NASDAQ: SVVS) should come out in its October earnings conference call. The data-center company had a nice run post-restructuring, but I blogged as the stock was hitting $50 per share that it was worth taking some money off of the table.

With the stock having corrected to $36, it is worth chipping away at this growth company.

Savvis is building four new state-of-the-art centers which will expand capacity by 160,000 sq. ft. around the country. The company also has utilized options to take back below-market-rate contracts which it is in the process of re-marketing and repricing. Further, the data-center company is upgrading its network with new Cisco equipment, getting rid of older Nortel gear, and will link its metropolitan data centers with fiber to improve service for customers.

Savvis also has completely overhauled its balance sheet with lower cost-of-capital converts.

Earnings from these new investments and balance sheet changes should begin to be seen when the company reports in October. It is worth considering bottom fishing at this price level. If the product transition is slow, the stock has limited downside; if it is ahead of schedule, you can potentially make some good money.

Yesterday, Newell Rubbermaid Inc (NYSE: NWL) raised third quarter revenue and profit guidance. Revenue growth is expected to come in at the high end of the previously announced range of 5% to 7%, citing strength in Home & Family, Tools & Hardware segments, as well as favorable forex. Also, Newell said gross margins are expected to jump by 125 to 175 basis points, another big increase for the company, which showed good gross margin improvement earlier this year.

We blogged last week that investors should jump into Newell stock at $25 as it had gotten too cheap. Newell, which has been showing signs of beginning a sustainable turn around, has gotten hit hard in the recent stock market correction, with shares dropping from $30 to around $25, for a 17% decline.

However, we thought recent comments by Mark Ketchum, Newell's CEO, to analysts indicating it could meet its growth targets held some merit. Ketchum bought 20,000 shares of stock, according to a SEC filing a week ago Friday. Since blogging last week that investors should scoop up shares, Newell is up 12%.

Georges Yared notes in his insightful post about Amazon.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN):

Amazon has been what Wall Streeters call a "stalled-story". That means the company took most of 2004-2006 to build very expensive infrastructure and spent heavily on heavy marketing expenses to acquire customers. This spending spree took the winds out of Amazon's sails for those three years. Earnings growth, visibility and momentum suffered as did the share price.

Throughout the rest of the post, Georges explains the very interesting growth long-term growth story in Amazon, as he responds to my recent post about the short-term price action I expect in Amazon.

I believe this entire situation is a perfect example of two things: 1) How a mindset going into a position can affect what the investor is looking for; and 2) How two different people, with different perspectives, can potentially be right about a stock.

I've noted the different mindsets between going into a trade and going into an investment before on BloggingStocks. Something like Earthlink (NASDAQ: ELNK) would be an investment, while something like PF Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) or Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), would be pure trades, meaning there's no intent to hold the stock. PF Chang's trade I've discusses was event-driven with the belief that the company would cut guidance, which it did. Google's was a sentiment play due to the belief that stockholders would get nervous with the company's performance, and so far it seems they have.

It's important that people remember this concept because oftentimes when I have a thought on a trade it could be different from my long-term view of a stock.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), the global internet on-line retailer, reported amazing results once again. Some highlights include:

• Free cash flow for the quarter was $700 million, up from $375 million last year, or up 86%
• Return on invested capital (ROIC) jumped from 23% to 39%, with the on-line retailer forecasting it to jump triple digits
• Revenue growth was 35%, with operating profit growth up 149%

What is also interesting, from a company that is reaching its high-growth phase perspective, is that Amazon's shares outstanding for the past year are down 2%. WOW! Typically, the opposite is true and shares outstanding goes up to reward employees with stock options.

Another interesting point is Amazon's forecast for triple digit ROIC, which is a very similar path Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) followed in the late 1990s. During this period as Dell's ROIC ramped, the stock went through the roof for a good three or four years.

I'd stay with Amazon as it enters its hyper growth phase.

Add another data point to the "sluggish growth" argument.

Wall Street, which typically has fewer and fewer institutional players actively trading the market as July stretches into August, due to summer vacations and travel, is currently split among those lingering around who see sluggish U.S. GDP growth up ahead, and those who see solid,
+2% U.S. GDP growth for 2007.

Well, Home Depot's (NYSE: HD) lowered F2008 EPS guidance to $2.30-$2.36 versus the Reuters consensus estimate of $2.59, represents an item of evidence for the sluggish growth camp. Home Depot's shares were virtually unchanged on the news, up 4c to $40.27 in Tuesday afternoon trading.

Home Depot said in a statement that it expects the housing market to remain sluggish through 2008. Both new and existing homes sales fell in May and the inventories rose. A sluggish housing market acts as drag on the U.S. economy not solely due to transaction value of homes, but because housing drives economic activity in many companion sectors, most importantly: furniture, and big-ticket appliances. Hence, sustained sluggishness in housing suggests a strong headwind for the U.S. economy.

Further, theoretically, it's not impossible for the U.S. economy to grow at a rapid rate despite a sluggish housing sector: other sectors could experience hyper-growth and offset a contraction in housing. Or a new technology could emerge that could substantially increase productivity and/or lower costs, leading to faster U.S. economic growth.

But historically those occasions are rare. Hence, Home Depot's lowered guidance suggests a housing-induced, slow-growth U.S. economy for at least 1 or 2 more quarters, and perhaps longer - - a fact that Wall Street's slow-growth analysts have no-doubt made abundantly clear today.