BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com BloggingStocks http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/media/feedlogo.gif BloggingStocks http://www.bloggingstocks.com en-us Copyright 2012 Weblogs, Inc. The contents of this feed are available for non-commercial use only. Blogsmith http://www.blogsmith.com/<![CDATA[Manufacturing Bright Spot Found in Food Production]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/11/16/manufacturing-bright-spot-found-in-food-production/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/11/16/manufacturing-bright-spot-found-in-food-production/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/11/16/manufacturing-bright-spot-found-in-food-production/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

As is often the case, growth and recovery in America begins at ground level. Current upbeat news from regional food producers is signaling good news for many companies, including Deere & Company (DE). While developing industrial bases such as China and India have taken on the lion's share of mid to heavy manufacturing duties, they are also developing increased needs to feed hungry work forces. Indeed, they are also developing the capital to feed those needs.

The spin-off from this morphing consumption dynamic is a surge of growth in America's agricultural and food production sectors. Indications are that the increased demands being put upon American agricultural output is fueling an increased demand for heavy weight farm tractors and is requiring food processing facility expansions. "Sales of 100-horsepower tractors, which cost about $75,000 to $100,000 each, were up 27 percent last month over the same month last year, said Charlie O'Brien, vice president of agricultural services for The Association of Equipment Manufacturers, in an Associated Press interview.

Continue reading Manufacturing Bright Spot Found in Food Production

Manufacturing Bright Spot Found in Food Production originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Nov 2010 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>expansionexportsfeaturedfoodgrowthinthenewsproductionTue, 16 Nov 2010 17:00:00 EST<![CDATA[Key U.S. Durable Goods Stat Suggests Better Days Ahead for Expansion, Earnings]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/10/07/key-u-s-durable-goods-stat-suggests-better-days-ahead-for-expan/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/10/07/key-u-s-durable-goods-stat-suggests-better-days-ahead-for-expan/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/10/07/key-u-s-durable-goods-stat-suggests-better-days-ahead-for-expan/#commentsFiled under: , ,

durable goods ordersInstitutional investors are sometimes chastised for placing too much emphasis on a given economic statistic.

And with good reason: one positive or negative data point doesn't make a trend, and equally significant -- the very data point investors claim 'signals' the start of new bullish (or bearish) trend, frequently is revised, sometimes substantially -- making the previous bullish or bearish conclusion look premature, if not irrational.

That said, there are those 'telling stats' that offer a binocular view -- what may be ahead for the U.S. economy down the road. And one is: durable goods orders excluding transportation goods [PDF download].

Continue reading Key U.S. Durable Goods Stat Suggests Better Days Ahead for Expansion, Earnings

Key U.S. Durable Goods Stat Suggests Better Days Ahead for Expansion, Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 07 Oct 2010 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>durable goods orderseconomygrowthinthenewsThu, 07 Oct 2010 17:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Investing Strategy: Find the Growth First, Then Invest]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/15/investing-strategy-find-the-growth-first-then-invest/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/15/investing-strategy-find-the-growth-first-then-invest/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/07/15/investing-strategy-find-the-growth-first-then-invest/#commentsFiled under: ,

With the New York Times' headlines from Prechter's version of the Elliott Wave calling for a Dow 1000 tsunami to Krugman promoting a Third Depression, and with everyone trumpeting safe havens at any price, I continue to like our contrarian stance suggesting that near-term pessimism has peaked, making growth today's best investment.

The stage for such growth is obviously located where economic activity and job creation are on the rise (without the aid of stimulus plans). Looking at the IMF's recently released and upgraded 2010 global growth forecast, and as set against our more balanced mix, I'll wager growth makes even sound near-term investment sense... and at today's fretful prices, bargains buffer some of such a venture's risk.

Continue reading Investing Strategy: Find the Growth First, Then Invest

Investing Strategy: Find the Growth First, Then Invest originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Jul 2010 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>economygrowthinvestingjames lowellpessimismThu, 15 Jul 2010 16:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Under the Radar: Is Globalization Keeping U.S. Jobless Claims High?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/05/13/under-the-radar-is-globalization-keeping-u-s-jobless-claims-hi/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/05/13/under-the-radar-is-globalization-keeping-u-s-jobless-claims-hi/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/05/13/under-the-radar-is-globalization-keeping-u-s-jobless-claims-hi/#commentsFiled under: ,

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and are visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: The normal labor market pattern is for initial jobless claims to decline substantially as company lay-offs subside, and as more companies maintain current staffing levels and start hiring. But what if jobless claims persist at a high level, even after the U.S. economy reaches the condition of a strong expansion? That would be indicative of another dynamic in the U.S. job market.

Continue reading Under the Radar: Is Globalization Keeping U.S. Jobless Claims High?

Under the Radar: Is Globalization Keeping U.S. Jobless Claims High? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 May 2010 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>globalizationgrowthinthenewsjobless claimsThu, 13 May 2010 17:40:00 EST<![CDATA[Comfort Zone Investing: Is China the Next Dot-Com?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/03/27/comfort-zone-investing-is-china-the-next-dot-com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/03/27/comfort-zone-investing-is-china-the-next-dot-com/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/03/27/comfort-zone-investing-is-china-the-next-dot-com/#commentsFiled under: ,

Comfort Zone Investing: is China the next dot.com?Back in the late '90s all you had to do was put a ".com" after your official name, and you were golden. Investors bought your stock with a frenzy, never mind the details. It was the fact that the company was on the Internet, that's what mattered. Basic stock analysis? Forget about it. Didn't need it. The company was on the Web. Good enough for investors.

Analysts were digging deep into rationalizations on how to pump these stocks even higher. The usual numbers didn't apply, like price to earnings, because, well, there were no earnings. They were coming. Sometime. Way in the future. What mattered was the number of eyeballs that a site grabbed. The reasoning: the more eyeballs that looked at a site, the bigger the potential to convert those viewers into buyers. The only problem: very few viewers clicked on the banner ads. They saw them, but simply ignored them, much like hitting the mute button on their TVs.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Is China the Next Dot-Com?

Comfort Zone Investing: Is China the Next Dot-Com? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 27 Mar 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bubbleChinaComfort Zone Investingfeaturedforeign investinggrowthSat, 27 Mar 2010 10:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Ray of Light: IMF Ups 2010 Global Growth Forecast to 3.9%]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/26/ray-of-light-imf-ups-2010-global-growth-forecast-to-3-9/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/26/ray-of-light-imf-ups-2010-global-growth-forecast-to-3-9/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/26/ray-of-light-imf-ups-2010-global-growth-forecast-to-3-9/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Tuesday's upbeat data point: the International Monetary Fund is now forecasting that the global economy will grow 3.9% in 2010, up from the earlier forecast of 3.1% growth in October 2009.

The global economy grew a scant 1.3% in 2009, equivalent to a global recession -- the world's first since the end of World War II. The IMF also expects the global economy to growth 4.3% in 2011.

What's more, the IMF also raised its 2010 GDP growth forecast for the United States to 2.7%, up from the earlier 2.6% estimate. The U.S. economy contracted 0.3% in 2009, using the IMF's methodology and data. Meanwhile, the developed world is expected to growth 2.1%, in 2010, after an -0.7% contraction in 2009.

China's economy is expected to grow 10.0% in 2010, leading a 6.0% emerging market rebound. The IMF sees India growing 7.7%; Russia, 3.6%; Brazil, 4.7%; Mexico, 4.0%.

Continue reading Ray of Light: IMF Ups 2010 Global Growth Forecast to 3.9%

Ray of Light: IMF Ups 2010 Global Growth Forecast to 3.9% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jan 2010 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>emerging marketsEmergingMarketseurozoneglobal growthGlobalGrowthgrowthIMFrecessionTue, 26 Jan 2010 18:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Is It Time for the U.S. to Remove Fiscal/Monetary Stimulus?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/05/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-remove-fiscal-monetary-stimulus/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/05/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-remove-fiscal-monetary-stimulus/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/01/05/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-remove-fiscal-monetary-stimulus/#commentsFiled under: ,

New York Times (NYT) Columnist Paul Krugman, among others, has pointed out that it's way too early to think in terms of ending fiscal/stimulus. The economic expansion has barely begun -- let alone achieved self-sustaining status -- and the premature withdrawal of stimulus increases the likelihood of a double-dip recession, Krugman said.

Further, the view from here argues that investors need to keep in mind that U.S. economic fundamentals have not placed the economy on a steady-growth track -- not yet. What we have is one quarter (Q3 2009) of GDP growth. That's it.

Continue reading Is It Time for the U.S. to Remove Fiscal/Monetary Stimulus?

Is It Time for the U.S. to Remove Fiscal/Monetary Stimulus? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>featuredfiscal policyFiscalPolicygrowthKrugmanstimulusTue, 05 Jan 2010 18:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Recession or not?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/14/recession-or-not/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/14/recession-or-not/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/03/14/recession-or-not/#commentsFiled under: , , ,

For months now the dreaded "R" word has been floating around, and while most analysts are quick to point out that the technical definition of a recession has not been reached at this point, the signs are definitely pointing to a looming recession on the horizon. Now, there are a large selection of economists who are stating that the economy has already slid into a recession.

According to a poll by the Wall Street Journal, 70% of 51 economists who were polled over the past week are now reporting that the economy has moved into a recession.

Before we move ahead, let's take a look at the technical definition of a recession:
In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year

Continue reading Recession or not?

Recession or not? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Mar 2008 12:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>featuredforecastsGDPgrowthinflationinterest ratesInterestRatesrecessionStephen StanleyStephenStanleyunemploymentWarren BuffettWarrenBuffettFri, 14 Mar 2008 12:48:00 EST<![CDATA[Now is the time to buy American Apparel]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/21/now-is-the-time-to-buy-american-apparel/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/21/now-is-the-time-to-buy-american-apparel/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/21/now-is-the-time-to-buy-american-apparel/#commentsFiled under: ,

Fellow writer Zac Bissonnette highlighted the interesting (but somewhat controversial) story in American Apparel (AMEX: APP) about a week ago. He did a good job of explaining the company itself as well as the perverted CEO.

Although I think the questions surrounding the CEO's "lifestyle" are pertinent, I think they should be overlooked in favor of getting a piece of this high growth name at such an opportunistic time to buy. In short, I think the stock makes sense after a recent pullback.

Fundamentally, American Apparel appears very confusing at first. The older generation of readers is probably very baffled as to why a company that sells light-colored, tight fitting clothes is in the middle of a humongous growth cycle, understandably so. However, I'm more aiming this post towards those members of the younger generation who know just how powerful this concept is.

Continue reading Now is the time to buy American Apparel

Now is the time to buy American Apparel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>american apparelAmericanApparelappfeaturedgrowthlululululemonFri, 21 Dec 2007 15:13:00 EST<![CDATA[Credit industry woes: One man's perspective]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/17/credit-industry-woes-one-mans-perspective/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/17/credit-industry-woes-one-mans-perspective/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/12/17/credit-industry-woes-one-mans-perspective/#commentsFiled under: , , , , , , , , , ,

You've been hearing and reading all the bad news about the credit industry and all the nasty things that its difficulties might mean to you, but is anyone considering the positive outcome that this major reset of the American economy could mean in the long run? Being that I'm a cynical optimist (an oxymoron, I know), I have a perspective on this mess which many people might not be thinking about.

I've been telling you since late 2006 that we have entered a world economic shake down and that the biggest hindrance to further growth in the American economy is the fact that the balance sheets of American corporations are full. I cite the sudden spate of major acquisitions in pursuit of profit creation via consolidation as support for my opinion. As modern economics are conventionally structured, the only basis for economic health is steady growth. That makes the case for the necessity of this period of down slide only too palpable.

If we as a nation can financially hold it together for the next couple of years and swallow the huge bitter pill of a recession, when we come out on the other side of this mess we shall reap the incredible rewards of the "green economy" which is now in the process of being built. Today we are planting the seeds of America's next economic boom and I'm sorry to report that most of the rest of the world has mistakenly adopted our old patterns.

Continue reading Credit industry woes: One man's perspective

Credit industry woes: One man's perspective originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Dec 2007 18:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>creditdevelopmenteconomicgreen-economygrowthnew-agerecessionresetMon, 17 Dec 2007 18:42:00 EST<![CDATA[Bottom fishing for Savvis (SVVS)]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/27/evidence-of-successful-product-transition-for-savvis/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/27/evidence-of-successful-product-transition-for-savvis/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/27/evidence-of-successful-product-transition-for-savvis/#commentsFiled under:

Evidence of a successful product transition for Savvis Inc (NASDAQ: SVVS) should come out in its October earnings conference call. The data-center company had a nice run post-restructuring, but I blogged as the stock was hitting $50 per share that it was worth taking some money off of the table.

With the stock having corrected to $36, it is worth chipping away at this growth company.

Savvis is building four new state-of-the-art centers which will expand capacity by 160,000 sq. ft. around the country. The company also has utilized options to take back below-market-rate contracts which it is in the process of re-marketing and repricing. Further, the data-center company is upgrading its network with new Cisco equipment, getting rid of older Nortel gear, and will link its metropolitan data centers with fiber to improve service for customers.

Savvis also has completely overhauled its balance sheet with lower cost-of-capital converts.

Earnings from these new investments and balance sheet changes should begin to be seen when the company reports in October. It is worth considering bottom fishing at this price level. If the product transition is slow, the stock has limited downside; if it is ahead of schedule, you can potentially make some good money.

Bottom fishing for Savvis (SVVS) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Sep 2007 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>balance sheetBalanceSheetearningsgrowthsavvissvvsThu, 27 Sep 2007 14:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Rubbermaid (NWL) ups guidance despite evidence of economic slowdown]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/18/rubbermaid-ups-guidance-despite-evidence-of-economic-slowdown/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/18/rubbermaid-ups-guidance-despite-evidence-of-economic-slowdown/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/09/18/rubbermaid-ups-guidance-despite-evidence-of-economic-slowdown/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Yesterday, Newell Rubbermaid Inc (NYSE: NWL) raised third quarter revenue and profit guidance. Revenue growth is expected to come in at the high end of the previously announced range of 5% to 7%, citing strength in Home & Family, Tools & Hardware segments, as well as favorable forex. Also, Newell said gross margins are expected to jump by 125 to 175 basis points, another big increase for the company, which showed good gross margin improvement earlier this year.

We blogged last week that investors should jump into Newell stock at $25 as it had gotten too cheap. Newell, which has been showing signs of beginning a sustainable turn around, has gotten hit hard in the recent stock market correction, with shares dropping from $30 to around $25, for a 17% decline.

However, we thought recent comments by Mark Ketchum, Newell's CEO, to analysts indicating it could meet its growth targets held some merit. Ketchum bought 20,000 shares of stock, according to a SEC filing a week ago Friday. Since blogging last week that investors should scoop up shares, Newell is up 12%.

Rubbermaid (NWL) ups guidance despite evidence of economic slowdown originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 Sep 2007 10:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>earningsgrowthhardwareimprovementincreaseinthenewsNewll RubbermaidNewllRubbermaidNWLRubbermaidTue, 18 Sep 2007 10:25:00 EST<![CDATA[Amazon: A long-term investment or a short-term trade?]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/26/amazon-a-long-term-investment-or-a-short-term-trade/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/26/amazon-a-long-term-investment-or-a-short-term-trade/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/26/amazon-a-long-term-investment-or-a-short-term-trade/#commentsFiled under: ,

Georges Yared notes in his insightful post about Amazon.com, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN):
    Amazon has been what Wall Streeters call a "stalled-story". That means the company took most of 2004-2006 to build very expensive infrastructure and spent heavily on heavy marketing expenses to acquire customers. This spending spree took the winds out of Amazon's sails for those three years. Earnings growth, visibility and momentum suffered as did the share price.
Throughout the rest of the post, Georges explains the very interesting growth long-term growth story in Amazon, as he responds to my recent post about the short-term price action I expect in Amazon.

I believe this entire situation is a perfect example of two things: 1) How a mindset going into a position can affect what the investor is looking for; and 2) How two different people, with different perspectives, can potentially be right about a stock.

I've noted the different mindsets between going into a trade and going into an investment before on BloggingStocks. Something like Earthlink (NASDAQ: ELNK) would be an investment, while something like PF Chang's (NASDAQ: PFCB) or Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), would be pure trades, meaning there's no intent to hold the stock. PF Chang's trade I've discusses was event-driven with the belief that the company would cut guidance, which it did. Google's was a sentiment play due to the belief that stockholders would get nervous with the company's performance, and so far it seems they have.

It's important that people remember this concept because oftentimes when I have a thought on a trade it could be different from my long-term view of a stock.

Amazon: A long-term investment or a short-term trade? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Jul 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>amazonamznearthlinkelnkgooggooglegrowthlong-term investmentLong-termInvestmentpf ChangpfcbPfChangshort-term tradeShort-termTradetradevalueThu, 26 Jul 2007 14:05:00 EST<![CDATA[Amazing results from Amazon]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/25/amazing-results-from-amazon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/25/amazing-results-from-amazon/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/25/amazing-results-from-amazon/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), the global internet on-line retailer, reported amazing results once again. Some highlights include:
  • Free cash flow for the quarter was $700 million, up from $375 million last year, or up 86%
  • Return on invested capital (ROIC) jumped from 23% to 39%, with the on-line retailer forecasting it to jump triple digits
  • Revenue growth was 35%, with operating profit growth up 149%
What is also interesting, from a company that is reaching its high-growth phase perspective, is that Amazon's shares outstanding for the past year are down 2%. WOW! Typically, the opposite is true and shares outstanding goes up to reward employees with stock options.

Another interesting point is Amazon's forecast for triple digit ROIC, which is a very similar path Dell Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) followed in the late 1990s. During this period as Dell's ROIC ramped, the stock went through the roof for a good three or four years.

I'd stay with Amazon as it enters its hyper growth phase.

Amazing results from Amazon originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>amazonamazon.comamzndellearningsgrowthinternetretailerWed, 25 Jul 2007 12:30:00 EST<![CDATA[Home Depot's lowered EPS guidance: headwinds remain]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/10/home-depots-lowered-eps-guidance-headwinds-remain/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/10/home-depots-lowered-eps-guidance-headwinds-remain/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/07/10/home-depots-lowered-eps-guidance-headwinds-remain/#commentsFiled under: , , , ,

Add another data point to the "sluggish growth" argument.

Wall Street, which typically has fewer and fewer institutional players actively trading the market as July stretches into August, due to summer vacations and travel, is currently split among those lingering around who see sluggish U.S. GDP growth up ahead, and those who see solid,
+2% U.S. GDP growth for 2007.

Well, Home Depot's (NYSE: HD) lowered F2008 EPS guidance to $2.30-$2.36 versus the Reuters consensus estimate of $2.59, represents an item of evidence for the sluggish growth camp. Home Depot's shares were virtually unchanged on the news, up 4c to $40.27 in Tuesday afternoon trading.

Home Depot said in a statement that it expects the housing market to remain sluggish through 2008. Both new and existing homes sales fell in May and the inventories rose. A sluggish housing market acts as drag on the U.S. economy not solely due to transaction value of homes, but because housing drives economic activity in many companion sectors, most importantly: furniture, and big-ticket appliances. Hence, sustained sluggishness in housing suggests a strong headwind for the U.S. economy.

Further, theoretically, it's not impossible for the U.S. economy to grow at a rapid rate despite a sluggish housing sector: other sectors could experience hyper-growth and offset a contraction in housing. Or a new technology could emerge that could substantially increase productivity and/or lower costs, leading to faster U.S. economic growth.

But historically those occasions are rare. Hence, Home Depot's lowered guidance suggests a housing-induced, slow-growth U.S. economy for at least 1 or 2 more quarters, and perhaps longer - - a fact that Wall Street's slow-growth analysts have no-doubt made abundantly clear today.

Home Depot's lowered EPS guidance: headwinds remain originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Jul 2007 17:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>EconomygrowthHDHomeDepotHousingLOWLowesTue, 10 Jul 2007 17:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Oracle needs organic growth to drive stock]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/26/oracle-needs-organic-growth-to-drive-stock/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/26/oracle-needs-organic-growth-to-drive-stock/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/26/oracle-needs-organic-growth-to-drive-stock/#commentsFiled under: ,

If Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) is going to get investor's attention, it will have to demonstrate some organic growth, and not growth from simply adding on more sales from the recent slew of acquisitions.

Oracle reports results following the market's close tonight with profits expected to rise to $1.81 billion, or 35 cents a share, excluding one-time items for the May 31 quarter. Net income was $1.3 billion, or 24 cents, a year earlier.

Ellison set a target of $50 billion in annual sales by 2012 in a recent meeting with his sales force. Hitting that target would require a 23 percent annual sales increase, a huge number. That figure exceeds Oracle's recent growth rate of about 20 percent.

The Redwood City-based software company will once again post massive cash flow generation, however, if investors sense intense pricing pressure by combining product offerings and dropping prices, do not expect much upside in Oracle's stock price. Conversely, if price compression is not too bad, investors may be all over this stock.

Oracle needs organic growth to drive stock originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 11:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>earningsellisongrowthoracleorclorganicTue, 26 Jun 2007 11:01:00 EST<![CDATA[Archie MacAllaster picks bank stocks]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/18/archie-macalaster-picks-bank-stocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/18/archie-macalaster-picks-bank-stocks/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/06/18/archie-macalaster-picks-bank-stocks/#commentsFiled under: ,

Archie MacAllaster, long-term participant in Barron's round table, is saying go long bank stocks. MacAllaster says he owns four of the five largest due to their cheap valuation.

The one MacAllaster is concentrated on is Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) which has a 3.15% yield and has averaged 14% average earnings growth on 12% revenue growth for the past twenty years. During the past five years, earnings have grown 21% annually versus revenue 11%, with, the stock selling for just 12x 2008 estimated earnings versus 16x to 17x for the S&P 500.

Further, with the yield curve attempting to turn positively sloped this will allow banks to earn money from the yield within the next year or so. With the stock trading at $36, MacAllaster has a $42 price target.

Archie MacAllaster picks bank stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 18 Jun 2007 15:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Archie MacAlasterArchieMacalasterbank stocksBankStocksBarron'sgrowthWells FargoWellsFargoWFCMon, 18 Jun 2007 15:20:00 EST<![CDATA[Inflationary concerns in overheating Chinese economy warranted]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/23/inflationary-concerns-in-overheating-chinese-economy-warranted/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/23/inflationary-concerns-in-overheating-chinese-economy-warranted/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/23/inflationary-concerns-in-overheating-chinese-economy-warranted/#commentsFiled under: ,

China GDP growth of 11.1% for the first quarter is not a good number for the world's central bankers.

What is most worrisome about the recent economic reports is that China's monetary authorities have been attempting to slow down growth for quite some time. Short-term rates have been pushed up over 100 basis points during the past year with little effect. The stock market continues to boom with retail investors opening more than one million stock trading accounts the last week and 10 million the last four months -- greater than the previous four years combined, according to the Financial Times.

Getting economic growth down to the 9% targeted growth rate has remained elusive as the most recent above-par GDP growth rate follows a 10.6% reading for the first quarter of 2006.

U.S. investors have added more fuel to the fire purchasing $5.2 billion of Chinese equities. While this might not seem like a lot by U.S. stock market standards, this level of investment can often be too much for an emerging market to handle. Further, the appreciating yuan is somewhat of a liability this late in an economic expansion. As the yuan appreciates versus the dollar, Chinese companies convert dollar to yuan to profit from the currency appreciation, adding further liquidity to the economy.

Both government and monetary heads were hoping not to have to take a sledgehammer to the Chinese economy prior to the 2008 Olympics. However, they might not have a choice. This also means the Fed will remain on hold until the U.S. economy shows data indicating meaningful economic weakness, not wanting to add more fuel to China's overheating economy.

From a US investment perspective, if stronger than expected economic data come out the next month or so, take some money off of the table. This means central bankers around the world will tighten to keep world-wide inflation from taking off.

Inflationary concerns in overheating Chinese economy warranted originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Apr 2007 14:03:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>chinagdpgrowthinflationMon, 23 Apr 2007 14:03:00 EST<![CDATA[Chico's growth returning, gross margins still in question]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chicos-sss-growth-returning-gross-margins-still-a-question/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chicos-sss-growth-returning-gross-margins-still-a-question/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/chicos-sss-growth-returning-gross-margins-still-a-question/#commentsFiled under: , ,

Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS), the great growth stock that has run into hard times this past year, appears to be successfully addressing its lack of growth. Same-store-sales growth has returned after a prolonged period of big declines for this women's retailer.

Last night, Chico's reported same store sales increased 5.2% and total company-wide sales increased 22%. However, one of the flaws of retail monthly sales data is that it does not tell investors what gross margins were. Did management slash prices to get sales growth or did the company successfully change its product mix?

Look for analyst reports today to see if Chico's successfully changed its product mix and did not slash prices to get sales going. If improved product mix was the reason for the sales jump, it may be time to jump back into this stock.

When Chico's has its product mix right, its loyal, high-end customer base will use its deep pockets to buy a lot of stuff, which amounts to huge free cash flow generation for shareholders. With the stock trading for around $25, down from $48 in early 2006, this stock could revisit its former highs if sustainable growth has returned.

Chico's growth returning, gross margins still in question originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Apr 2007 11:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>chico'schicoschsgrowthretailsame store salesSameStoreSalessssWed, 11 Apr 2007 11:24:00 EST<![CDATA[Chico's same store sales growth bottoming]]>http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/07/chicos-same-store-sales-growth-bottoming/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/07/chicos-same-store-sales-growth-bottoming/http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/07/chicos-same-store-sales-growth-bottoming/#commentsFiled under: ,

Chico's FAS (NYSE: CHS), the once high flying retailer, hit a serious bump in the road in early 2006. The outstanding same store sales growth that drove the stock to record heights rolled over and so did the stock. After peaking in early 2006 at $49, the stock is now down to $20, a 60% drop.

Last night, Chico's reported results and it appears the worst in same store sales (SSS) could be coming to an end. The much watched industry metric could turn positive by the Spring.

SSS for the Chico's stores came in flat, which is a big improvement from 2006 figures. However, management said February SSS were down 3%. Therefore, Chico's is still going through a bumpy period.

With the stock down 60% from its high, it is time to start getting into this stock. Chico's is debt fee, is a cash flow machine and could be a private equity candidate if SSS improves in the Spring and the investment community doesn't drive the stock higher.

Retailer with a loyal clientele come back in droves when the company gets the product mix right.

Chico's same store sales growth bottoming originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 07 Mar 2007 08:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>bottomchico'schicoschsearningsgrowthsame store salesSameStoreSalessssWed, 07 Mar 2007 08:35:00 EST