It looks like the recession is hurting mobile phones sales. According to The Wall Street Journal, "For the full year, Gartner said it expects handset sales to grow 11% to 1.28 billion phones, slowing from last year's 16% growth."

A trend of that magnitude is bound to hit every company in the industry, but some have the financial strength and market share to weather the storm, That is especially true of Nokia (NYSE: NOK), which has a global market share of 40% of handset sales. Samsung, which has 15% of the market and is one of the largest companies in Asia, should also be fine.

Motorola (NYSE: MOT) is another matter. Its global share has dropped from nearly 15% to just above 10% in a year. More financial pressure could poison its chances of spinning off its handset operation in 2009. It is already questionable whether the division has any value at all.

The Motorola 10-Q shows that revenue at the company's mobile device operation fell 22% last quarter to $3.33 billion. The operating loss for the unit was $346 million. If the handset market as a whole is reaching a challenging period, what is to become of the weakest player in the industry?

The answer is that Motorola may not be able to get rid of its handset operation. It may be faced with the much harder task of fixing it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) shares are high flying this morning, opening over 8% higher at $8.43. Motorola reported second quarter financial results, posting an unexpected modest profit, beating sales estimate and saying the planned spinoff is on track (see more of today's earnings news).

By the numbers, the largest U.S. mobile-phone maker net income was $4 million, or break-even on a per-share basis, an improvement over last year's quarter loss of $28 million, or 1 cent a share as the company cut jobs. Excluding costs from job cuts, earnings came at 2 cents a share, surprising analysts who had expected a loss of 3 cents per share! Revenue fell 7.4% to $8.08 billion, but beat estimates.

Even the handset division with its widening losses as phone sales slumped 21% actually sold more phones than was expected and sequentially even showed sales growth. The $346 million loss in this division was offset by profit at the two-way radio and set-top box businesses. These units performed well with sales growth and operating profits. A positive operating cash flow and reduced cost structure were other good elements in the report.

Motorola (NYSE: MOT) pre-announced a second quarter shortfall and also indicated that the rest of 2007 will be difficult and non-profitable. The stock will more than likely be dead money for the next six to nine months as this company has yet to find its footing.

I wrote back on June 26th that Motorola would probably miss this quarter and perhaps the year. It has come true. Motorola is a company that is in trouble as it cannot make an operating profit on almost $9 billion of quarterly revenues. Motorola is attacking the European markets with mid-level product that is constantly under pricing pressures. The Motorola approach in Asia and China has been to penetrate the low-end of the cellular market which is also contending with evaporating margins.

Motorola had success with the Razr line-up of phones but has yet to come up with a killer-replacement phone and the Razr cycle has worn out its welcome.CEO Ed Zander, rightfully, is under huge pressure to perform as this once bellwether company is facing not only a tough 2007 but a challenging 2008. With Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone capturing market share and headlines, Motorola is hard pressed to maintain its competitive positioning in the United States.

Motorola's stock closed at $17 yesterday and I see little to any near term prospects of it lifting higher. Motorola stock may start to be interesting at the $14 level, but not until then.

Georges Yared is the Chief Investment Strategist of Yared Investment Research.

Today, Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK) and Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) announced their collaboration on the development of S60 software on Symbian OS, with the release of the first Vodafone specific software package to all S60 licensees.

Yesterday, Comverse Technology Inc (OTC: CMVT) announced the expansion of its Converged Messaging portfolio with the launch of Comverse Instant SMS, which combines the worlds of SMS and Mobile Instant Messaging, or MIM.

Additionally, Openwave Systems Inc (NASDAQ: OPWV) is launching a whole line of new products.

2007 and 2008 will be the battle between handsets and smartphones, those with the best software will win out. Wireless service providers have been slow to bring PC functionality to handset devices for fear of losing control of the handset. In the PC business, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) make all the money, with little left over for anyone else.

This means industry consolidation in the wireless software market is about to begin. Look for everyone to start making wireless software acquisitions, either acquiring or partnering, with Openwave, Comverse and Symbian. Also look for the big software companies like Microsoft and Sun Microsystems Inc (NASDAQ: SUNW), with its Java platform, to get into the M&A spirit.

National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: NSM) reported weak results last week and also gave a weaker profit guidance for the current quarter. Quarterly revenue fell 8% to $501.6 million from $544 million last year.

Brian Halla, National Semi's CEO, said there was no seasonal uptick for the holidays, which is not a good sign for the handset industry. National Semi makes system-on-a-chip semiconductors that go into many wireless phones. If National Semi's demand is down, that means demand is most likely down for Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Samsung and Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK).

Halla expects revenue to drop another 8% to 11% in this quarter. There is no reason for investors to bottom fish semiconductor stocks yet. It appears it will take a few quarters for the industry to bottom.

Observing the world of mobile phones, Jim Cramer said that handsets have been one of the greatest growth drivers around and best money-makers. He thinks the uncertainty presented by international governments just helps cell phone makers. The company that can produce the cheapest, he says, and deliver that into the third world will be the winner. He thinks that Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) can do this, and he thinks that NOK is the one to buy. He likes NOK for this reason more than he likes Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) or Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT).

Cramer said they are the lowest-cost provider and they might be selling them at subsidy levels, but he thinks they are establishing brand loyalty in those markets. He thinks Nokia will have the biggest footprint out of the cellphone makers, and as their middle classes grow so will Nokia.

Do those in international markets have brand loyalty? If they go cheap now and that gets established as "the cheap intro brand" then won't the upwardly mobile go look for sa step-up? He might be right here, and he might not. The stock may even go up from here, but I would be willing to bet that it is for different reasons. We'll see.