In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Gold at $1,000. Better buy now or you will miss the greatest invention since tulips in the 1800s.

Or so they say. I say, what a bunch of baloney. Why on earth would I want to put hard-earned cash on something that may look pretty but has no real tangible value?

That's right, gold has no tangible value. Well, that's not entirely true since there is a vast cult of worshipers out there that say gold is the only thing with value. As a result of their die-hard belief, gold actually does have value, as we now see with AU trading for $1,000 per ounce.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $32.30. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.86% to $50.65 a barrel according to Bloomberg. April option implied volatility is at 69; July is at 66; below its 26-week average of 80, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), the fifth largest gold producer globally, closed at $12.15. Gold is recently down .47% to $954.30 according to Bloomberg. HMY April option implied volatility of 67 is below its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"The Fed's bailout of the mortgage markets has reignited fears of inflation and of a slow-motion meltdown of the dollar," says Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies.

"That makes now a good time to own mining stocks, particularly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), which made a very smart move in March when it bought Phelps Dodge for $26 billion. The purchase made Freeport the world's largest publicly-traded copper company.

"It now has a huge, long-lived, geographically diverse portfolio of mining assets. And the acquisition of Phelps is producing tens of millions of dollars in unexpected savings. The buy will result in an immediate 30% spike in Freeport's annual sales.

"With Freeport opening a new copper mine in Arizona ahead of schedule this year -- one that will produce at least 240 million pounds of copper per annum -- and the new company enjoying huge new economies of scale, expect this stock to continue its rapid run."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Semiconductor sector was the most notable upgrade today, made by the Stephens Group; the firm believes the risk of a severe downturn is moderating and that 2007 will likely be an up year rather than a down year.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Credit Suisse upgraded Safeway Stores Inc. (NYSE:SWY) to Neutral from Underperform, a move that comes after yesterday's analyst meeting provided new information that shows Blackhawk is a meaningful initiative and 2007 guidance exceeded expectations. Additionally, Safeway's target was raised to $35 from $25.
• JP Morgan upgraded Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. (NYSE:HMY) to Overweight from Neutral, increasing L-T gold price forecasts to $575/0z from $525/oz , expecting shares to outperform the sector.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Palm Inc. (PALM) and SiRF Technology (SIRF) topped today's list of upgrades.

• ThinkEquity upgraded Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM) to Buy from Accumulate and said that the delay in 750 certification, Palm's shortfall, should be resolved by the early part of the third quarter.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of SiRF Technology Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRF) to Equal-Weight from Underweight; they now believe consensus estimates are in-line with their own.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• The Bombay Co. (NYSE:BBA) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Friedman Billings Ramsey; they believe management has worked hard to turn the company around and that Bombay has the ability to make money over time.
• Pacific Crest upgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS) to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $16 target and said BEA System's sell-off is overdone.
• Harmony Gold (HMY) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and Newmont Mining (NEM) to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
• Lehman Bros. upgraded Electronic Data Systems (EDS) to Overweight from Equal-Weight with a $32 target; following discussions with management, Lehman's confidence in the company's ability to cut costs and increase margins have improved.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).