So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?
I'll give you my take on things. Books, unfortunately, are simply not so glamorous these days. And I do think that booksellers are going to have a hard time this holiday season. With all the competition from video games and other media, the printed page just isn't that exciting to a lot of consumers. I don't think that books will be a top priority as the wallet continues to get squeezed and while job security remains an issue. Our attention spans have been cut so short these days, and they're only getting shorter. In an era of MTV quick-edits and PowerPoint presentations, 100,000-word diversions don't feel so diverting anymore.
Books are probably even less exciting to young people. Seriously, how many kids have books on their Christmas lists this year? They may want the latest Blu-ray cartoon from Disney (NYSE: DIS), or the latest Call of Duty game from Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), but I'm not so sure they want the latest Stephen King novel (as for me, I picked up King's latest short-story collection Just After Sunset at my local Barnes & Noble). Many kids have been introduced to the joys of reading through the Harry Potter series, but I don't think Potter will be working his magic this season. If parents do cut back this year on presents, I figure they're going to err on the side of making sure that all the non-book gifts are acquired.
Is there anything the booksellers can do about this?
Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) as investors look for any sign that the housing sector has bottomed (home sales numbers are also due out this week; see below). Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial anticipate that both companies will report that they narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter.
KB Home's expected $1.25 per share loss, on revenue of $725.5 million, compares to the previous quarter loss of $3.30 and to a year-ago loss of $6.19. However, KB Home's losses in the past few quarters have been deeper than expected. The Los Angeles-based homebuilder's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.5%, less than the S&P 500. Analysts continue to recommend holding KB Home, and have for at least 120 days. Shares, however, reached a new 52-week high of $31.69 on Friday, and they are up 10.5% year to date.
Lennar is expected to post a loss of 52 cents per share, on revenue of $1.1 billion. That compares to the previous quarter's per-share loss of 76 cents and to a year-ago loss of $3.25. While Lennar also has tended in the past few quarters to miss expectations, the Miami-based company managed a positive surprise in the first quarter of 2008. Lennar's long-range earnings growth forecast is 10.3%, about the same as KB Home's. Analysts also recommend holding Lennar. Friday, shares of Lennar also reached a 52-week high, $27.75, but they are down 6.4% year to date.
U.S. District Judge Robert P. Patterson has ruled Steven Vander Ark's "Harry Potter Lexicon" website and proposed book infringe on copyrights held by author J.K. Rowling, and awarded Rowling and Warner Bros. -- a division of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) -- $6,750 in statutory damages. Given that Rowling earned an estimated $300 million last year, it's doubtful she was in this one for the money.
While authors are generally allowed to use material from other books in reference titles, the judge ruled that this case went beyond fair use because it "appropriates too much of Rowling's creative work for its purposes as a reference guide."
Rowling had testified that the pending release of the guide had caused her great stress and interfered with her work on a new novel.
The hp-lexicon.org site has already been taken down. It's a little bit disenchanting to see Ms. Rowling suing a former school librarian for producing a work that is clearly designed to appeal to die-hard Harry Potter fans, but she's certainly within her rights.
Warner Bros. -- a division of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) -- made the surprising announcement that it's delaying the release of the sixth installment in the Harry Potter saga: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Price.
The release is being pushed back from November 11 of 2008 to July 17 of 2009. Warner Bros. President Alan Horn blamed the writers' strike, saying that "We agreed the best strategy was to move 'Half-Blood Prince' to July, where it perfectly fills the gap for a major tentpole release for mid-summer."
I'm not convinced -- isn't it a little close to the previously scheduled opening for the writers' strike that ended on February 12 to be the reason? Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield wrote that "We believe TWX is shifting the film to help it achieve earnings expectations in 2008 (moving expensive P & A out of Q4 2008, at the same time that several successful films are set to hit DVD for Warner)."
If that's the case, investors should be concerned. Any time that a company starts messing with its operations in order to improve short-term earnings reports, you have a situation where long-term objectives could be neglected in favor of satisfying Wall Street expectations. In the long run, such a strategy will neither please Wall Street nor set the stage for long-term growth.
If you have children in elementary school, then you know Scholastic Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHL), operator of the annnual school book fair. Scholastic does an excellent job publishing high-quality children's literature and other educational materials. If only it could do so at a profit. Scholastic has been the U.S. publisher for the Harry Potter series these past few years. But even during the height of Pottermania, Scholastic did not turn much of a profit. This year is no exception. The company recently released 3Q 2008 results. Revenue increased $12 million to $458 million, yet losses continue to widen to $4.6 million for the quarter in which there was no Harry Potter release.
YTD 2008 figures show revenue increased 20% and net income more than doubled due to the last Harry Potter release in the previous quarter. Yet YTD net loss now totals $9.3 million or $0.24 per share compared to net income of $20.5 million in the previous year. To be fair, Scholastic has taken huge losses -- $82 million in Q3 2008 alone -- to exit its direct-to-home sales channel. This led to a $77.5 million net loss in Q3. But even with all business segments "performing solidly," according to CEO Richard Robinson, the company continues to bleed money.
Bloomsbury Publishing PLC, the British publisher of Harry Potter, recently reported robust sales and profit from Harry Potter books. Given that Scholastic also published this year's Caldecott Medal winner, Brain Selznick's The Invention of Hugo Cabret, why is the company still drownding in red ink? S&P Equity downgraded the comapny from Buy to Hold.
As a former English teacher, I can't count the times that I had to listen to a student complain about the "relevance" of this book or that book. I usually tried to explain how literature affects culture and books change the world. I only wish that I'd thought to check out Scholastic Corporation's finances.
On Thursday, citing a tough economy, Scholastic Corporation stated that its expectations for the forthcoming year were somewhat dark. This, combined with a considerable quarterly loss, led to a 13.5% drop in its stock value, leaving it at $30.69 per share. Today, it dropped slightly more, and is currently at $30.25.
I have fond memories of reading Scholastic's books when I was a kid, and I certainly don't like to see the company in pain. However, as an author, I have to admit a certain amount of wondrous amazement at the situation currently unfolding. You see, Scholastic's dire predictions for 2008 center around the fact that it will not have a "Harry Potter" book to give its sales a shot of adrenalin.
Sometimes in a period of uncertainty, a look back can provide some perspective. So here are a few highlights from BloggingStocks on March 16, 2007,a year ago today.
The Wall Street Journalreported [subscription required] this morning that Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros. Pictures plans to film the adaptation of the seventh "Harry Potter" book in two parts. The first part of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows will be released during the holiday season of 2010 and the second part will follow six months later. A similar proposal was made for the filming of the fourth book, before enough material was cut from the book to facilitate a single film. Warner Bros. Pictures said that filming the book in two parts was "necessary to stay true to the tome."
The five "Harry Potter" films released thus far have grossed $4.5 billion according to the Journal, and expectations are high that the sixth film, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, will repeat that success when it is released later this year. Current director David Yates will stay on board for the final two installments, after directing the fifth film and the upcoming sixth film. In addition to "staying true to the tome," WB President Jeff Robinov admitted that "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows is 'packed with vital plot points' and that 'the best way to do the book, and its many fans, justice is to expand the screen adaptation.'"
Clearly, part of the scheme of adding an eighth film to the series is to continue the success the films have seen, as well as the record-breaking sales that the book's have enjoyed as well. Fans will likely welcome the decision, although not the time lag between the films, and question why similar methods were not taken for the longer fourth and fifth books. At the same time, they may also question the economics of it but the films will likely still do quite well and bring in further revenue that Warner Bros. looks toward.
All movie studios want to find their own Lord of the Rings/Harry Potter franchise. Disney (NYSE: DIS), for example, seems to be headed on the right track with its Narnia brand. Viacom (NYSE: VIA) made a solid effort this past weekend by releasing The Spiderwick Chronicles to the mass multiplex marketplace -- unfortunately, things didn't turn out so well, at least as I'm seeing it.
According to Boxofficemojo, Spiderwick is in a battle with Disney's Step Up 2 the Streets for second place. The latter is right now estimated to have grossed $19.7 million for the three-day weekend of February 15 through February 17; the former has just over $19 million to its credit. So, Spiderwick could exit its current third-place showing and move up in the rankings, but it won't catch up to the big winner, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Jumper. I'll tell you, I had no idea this one was going to "jump" -- what a horrible, horrible pun, huh? -- to the top of the box office charts this weekend with a $27 million take.
Final numbers will be coming later today, and we'll get a better indication of how all the movies did once Monday's holiday figures are added; also, the second weekend is always the ultimate tell. But, as of now, I don't think Viacom's Spiderwick fantasy -- which is distributed by Paramount and is co-branded with Nickelodeon Movies -- will approach the economic prestige of Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Potter property. Better luck next time.
The Tales of Beedle the Bard, a book of fairy tales created, hand-written and illustrated by Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, sold for nearly $4 million at a Sotheby's (NYSE: BID) auction on Thursday.
The book is one of seven copies Rowling made, and she gave the other six away to people involved with the Harry Potter collection. The book had only been expected to fetch about $100,000, but soared far beyond that and was eventually sold to a London art agent for $4 million.
The proceeds will benefit The Children's Voice, which campaigns for rights of children who grow up in institutions, particularly in Eastern Europe. To learn more about the charity, or perhaps make it part of your holiday giving plan, visit its website.
It's impressive to see that the first thing that Rowling released upon the completion of the Harry Potter series was not another book to cash in on her name. In fact, Rowling, who is already a billionaire, won't be making any money from this book.
J.K. Rowling has conducted herself with unbelievable class, and her good works and wariness of diving right into another book should only help build anticipation for her next project.
Harry Potter fans looking for a peak of what the book consists of should head over to Amazon.com, which has a terrific series of photos and a video about the book. More photos and reviews of the stories will be uploaded.
If you have a child younger than high-school age, then you know about Scholastic Corporation (NASDAQ: SCHL), the world's largest publisher of children's literature and educational material, and the sponsor of the annual school book fair.
Not incidentally, Scholastic also is Harry Potter's publisher, which one would think would be a fairly lucrative revenue stream. Apparently not. Ellie Berger has been named President of Trade for Scholastic in part to figure out how to turn over a new (and hopefully profitable) leaf for Scholastic. Despite record-setting revenue in 1Q FY 2008, which included the release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Scholastic still managed to post a loss. On revenues of $587 million, a 75% increase, Scholastic posted a net loss of $2.8 million for the quarter. But this loss is a huge improvement over the $47 million net loss a year earlier.
Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) is seeing its shares being reiterated with an Overweight rating at Thomas Weisel, and the brokerage firm has a $24.00 price target on the stock.
One of the winning issues was the success of the latest Harry Potter film Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix that could help the media giant beat earnings estimates. The note also lists positive home video sales as a catalyst that could lift earnings.
Thomas Weisel's analyst Gordon Hodge also notes the likelihood that over the next 18 months the media conglomerate may spin off its cable, AOL, or even publishing units. Does this sound familiar or what? I wrote about both scenarios numerous times, mentioning the possible stake sale in cable, and how AOL can become its own tracking stock as well.
Last week Time Warner was started with a Neutral rating at Credit Suisse. There is obviously a lot of value that can be unlocked, and it seems analyst are slowly getting around the "unlocking value" story.
This summer was a very profitable one for box offices nationwide, with four movies grossing over $300M, and at least another nine grossing over $100M -- signaling in a big way the resurgence of the movie industry, which had been struggling for the last few years.
The four big $300M+ winners of the summer were Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE) 'sSpider-Man 3, which grossed $336M in the U.S., Viacom, Inc (NYSE: VIA)'s Paramount's Shrek the Third, which grossed $320M, Transformers, also from Paramount, which grossed $311M, and The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)'s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, which grossed $308M.
Three of the four were third installments of well established big-budget franchises, so their success is hardly shocking, but the Transformers success clearly marks the start of a new blockbuster franchise (the release date of the sequel has been announced -- June 26, 2009). The robot-action extravaganza, which was directed by Michael Bay, was definitely a surprise, as I remarked in my summer movie preview that Transformers "has flop written all over it... there cannot possibly be enough substance in a story about alien robots that transform into vehicles to make this a hit with the general public." I was wrong -- very wrong. The movie killed at the box office, grossing over $330M on a $150M budget, and prompting a re-release on IMAX, which opened last week.
This post is part of our Money Face-Offs feature. Let us know who you think comes out ahead in this head-to-head match-up, and check out our other Money Face-Off posts.
"I will take the Ring," he said, "though I do not know the way." -- Frodo Baggins, The Fellowship of the Ring
"There is no good and evil, there is only power, and those too weak to seek it." -- Voldemort, Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone
In the late 1920s, J.R.R. Tolkien started writing a fantastical story about magical creatures known as hobbits, elves, and dwarves, in a made up world he called Middle Earth, for the benefit of his children. The work he completed, The Hobbit, became the prelude to one of the great literary masterpieces of all time -- The Lord of the Rings trilogy. Some 70 years later, J.K. Rowling started writing a fantastical story about a different set of magical creatures known as witches and wizards, in a not so made up world called England, for the benefit of her daughter. That book, Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone (Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone here in the States), and the six books that followed in the series, have made Rowling the wealthiest woman in the world.
The authors share many similarities. Both are British, use initials in place of their first names, are famous for one major literary contribution (although Rowling, having the benefit of still being alive, will have many years to change that), and have had cinematic empires based on their works.
So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?
Earnings reports continue to dribble in as the quarter winds down. Much of the attention this week will be on homebuilders 
U.S. District Judge Robert P. Patterson 
Warner Bros. -- a division of 
The Wall Street Journal 
The Tales of Beedle the Bard, a book of fairy tales created, hand-written and illustrated by Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, 
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"I will take the Ring," he said, "though I do not know the way."
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