Hartford Financial (HIG) is one of the largest providers of investment products, individual life, group life and group disability insurance products, as well as property and casualty insurance products in the U.S. In addition to the U.S., the company has operations in Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Brazil and Ireland. Its main competitors include large insurers like MetLife (MET), Prudential (PRU) and AIG (AIG).

We have a price estimate of $23.68 on Hartford Financial's stock, which is about 20% below the current market price. We estimate that property and casualty insurance in the U.S. constitutes about 37% of the company's stock value.

Analyst Upgrades

• Goldman upgraded Citigroup (C) to conviction buy from buy, Principal Financial (PFG) to buy from neutral, and Stancorp Financial (SFG) and Hartford Financial (HIG) to neutral from sell.
• JetBlue (JBLU) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Barclays upgraded Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Carnival (CCL) upgraded to overweight from equal weight.
• Hollysys Automation (HOLI) was upgraded to buy from hold at Roth Capital.
• RBC Capital upgraded Alliance Data Systems (ADS) to outperform from sector perform.
• RRI Energy (RRI) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup.

Catastrophe bond capacity is maturing, and not much of it is coming back. In the first quarter, $1.8 billion in cat bond risk capital matured, and only $508 million returned in the form of new issuances, according to Thomson Reuters. This quarter, $2.77 billion is maturing, and the absence of first-time issuers makes it unlikely that the market will replace it all. More than a billion of it was from State Farm's Merna Re transaction. The successor to it has already been issued, cleverly named Merna Re II, at only a fraction of the previous bond.

Merna Re, the largest catastrophe bond of all time, is set to mature in June, and State Farm is already putting together its replacement, the creatively named Merna Re II. The successor, planned for issuance in April, is said to be for $400 million in risk capital, though investor demand could push it as high as $700 million. This still pales in comparison to the $1.2 billion that the original brought in the door.

If State Farm is able to stimulate demand for Merna Re II, which would protect the company from non-California earthquake risk in the U.S., it will be third cat bond to come to market in 2010, which is expected to be a strong year for this form of risk transfer. The cat bond market fell silent after the near-collapse of American International Group (AIG) in September 2008 but was still the third busiest in terms of capital issued in the history of the cat bond market. Heading into 2009, prospects for the cat bond space seemed uncertain, but a robust fourth quarter eventually resulted in a year-over-year increase, driven mostly by repeat issuers.

Nine catastrophe bonds have matured so far in the first quarter of 2010, removing $1.8 billion in risk-transfer capacity, according to data from Reuters. The insurance industry has compensated with $508 million in new cat bond risk capital, with the busy fourth quarter helping to absorb what is maturing now. Only one cat bond has closed so far this year, The Hartford's (HIG) $180 million Foundation Re III. But, the first quarter is usually a quiet one for the cat bond market.

It partly replaces the $105 million in protection that Foundation Re D afforded. Swiss Re (SWCEY) and SCOR (SCRYY) are also among the insurance companies with bonds maturing that have at least partial coverage from new cat bond issuances. Another four bonds have matured, however, with no new related issuance, affecting Munich Re (MURGY), AXA (AXA) and others.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Akamai Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) earnings prospects garnered an analyst's upgrade.
• Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) warned of a loss for the quarter due to the economic slowdown.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted lower Q2 profit and revenue that missed estimates.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) Q2 profit fell but beat estimates, and it reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
• Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) swung to a Q4 loss and warned that low demand will continue.
• Hartford Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) posted a loss, cut its dividend, and offered weak guidance.

If you've been watching earnings this past week, or if you read last week's Week in Preview, then this coming week may leave you feeling a bit like Bill Murray in Groundhog's Day. That is, again analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect earnings declines to be more frequent and deeper than earnings gains.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), IAC Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IACI), Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, and they're all expected to report double-digit declines in earnings.

But again this week, let's take a look who Wall Street feels may have done well in the past quarter.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) posted a large-than-expected earnings decline due to bad investments.
• AmeriCredit Corp.(NYSE: ACF) was downgraded despite topping Q1 expectations.
• BP (NYSE: BP) Q3 earnings and revenue soared due to surging energy prices.
• CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) Q3 results included some big charges and no free cash.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) posted strong Q1 results that easily topped Wall Street expectations.
• Colgate-Palmolive Co. (NYSE: CL) posted better-than-expected Q3 profits lifted by price increases.
• DivX Inc. (NASDAQ: DIVX) topped earnings expectations and offered revised guidance.
• Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) narrowed its net loss in Q2 and matched expectations.
• First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Q3 revenue more than doubled, results easily topping estimates.
• Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) posted its first quarterly loss in five years.
• Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) topped Q3 earnings estimates and offered full-year guidance.
• Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) solid Q3 results were helped by higher prices and offered neutral guidance.
• McAfee Inc. (NYSE: MFE) reported that it topped earnings estimates, sending shares higher.
• Nintendo Co. (OTC: NTDOY) posted solid results driven by popularity of the Wii and DS systems.
• Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) topped Q1 expectations but lowered its full-year forecast.
• Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) Q3 earnings tumbled on the recession and exchange rate issues.
• Symantec Corp. (NASDAQ: SYMC) earnings were affected a loss of market share and currency issues.
• U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) reported the most profitable quarter in its history and beat estimates.
• Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) Q3 earnings matched expectations but shares rose.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Thomas Weisel downgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe the company's growth will be more muted given high existing market share and overall industry growth.
  
• Baird downgraded Nortel (NYSE: NT) to Neutral from Outperform citing checks that indicate deteriorating US Enterprise sales in the last few weeks of Q1. The firm now expects companies to guide flat QoQ instead of up and to make cautious 2H08 comments.
  
• Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper to reflect concerns over the LOFT division as well as consumer spending.

• Citigroup lowered TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) to Hold from Buy.
  
• WestLB downgraded to Hold from Add Novartis (NYSE: NVS).
  
• Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Lehman upgraded Cott Corp (NYSE: COT) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing recent management changes, a focus on CSD business, and new product discipline.
  
• Bernstein believes the entire non-life insurance group is oversold and that it is time to buy; the firm upgraded Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) and Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank on valuation with the stock trading at a -30% discount to NAV while the asset market for U.S. refineries is strong.

• Goldman added Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to its Conviction Buy List.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector to Overweight from Market Weight.

How vulnerable is your mutual fund to the ongoing mortgage meltdown? In this series, BloggingStocks contributor Lita Epstein, author of more than 20 books including Trading for Dummies and The Complete Idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score, digs into mutual funds' holdings looking for securities with exposure to the currently shaky credit markets.

After reviewing funds from Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Fidelity, companies that have been mentioned in some of the SIV bailout stories, I looked to see if other bond mutual funds also had significant exposure to the credit markets tied to this mortgage and asset-backed securities mess. While I can't guarantee that I located all the ones with significant exposure to this mess, here are some key players:

Eaton Vance Low Duration A has the riskiest position by far of all the ones I look at this morning. As of 04/30/07, this fund held 79.93% of its assets in mortgage pass-through securities. More than 75% of its holdings are in bonds rated BB and B. Its yield of 5.5% certainly doesn't justify this risk. If you are holding this fund, you could find a safer bet with similar yields.

As of 9/30/2007, Credit Suisse Short Duration A held 15.43% of its assets in mortgage pass-through securities, 13.86% in collateralized mortgage obligations, and 12.82% in asset-back securities. That's slightly more than 40% of its portfolio in the type of credit markets now showing signs of trouble.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• JP Morgan upgraded two defense stocks today: Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight on valuation;

• Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) was raised to Overweight from Neutral, with expectations for the company to post above average organic growth driven by strong bookings. The firm also raised Raytheon's 2008 EPS estimate to $3.80 from $3.60, well above the consensus estimate.

• AG Edwards believes Hartford Financial's (NYSE: HIG) recent weakness has created a buying opportunity and upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.

• Seagate (NYSE: STX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Murray as checks indicate a healthy seasonal uptick in demand for drives and PCs in 2H07.

• CommScope (NYSE: CTV) was Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan based on higher 2007 and 2008 expectations along with accretion from the Andrew acquisition...

• BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

• Friedman Billings raised Kimco Realty (NYSE: KIM) to Outperform from Market Perform.

• Merck (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards.

• Int'l Speedway (NASDAQ: ISCA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Matrix USA.

• JP Morgan added Cognizant Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: CTSH) to its JP Morgan Focus List.