Export orders were on the rise in October in China, suggesting a strengthening recovery and an opportunity to cut back on stimulus spending. The manufacturing measure grew at its fastest rate in the past year and a half, according to the HSBC (NYSE: HBC) purchasing managers' index. It increased to a seasonally adjusted 55.4 from 55 in September.

If you're looking for a reason behind the gain, it's all in the flow of capital. In addition to the government's economic stimulus package, $1.27 trillion in new loans were written to help deliver the country from the global financial crisis.

U.S. stock markets may be poised to rise, extending their gains from earlier this week, as traders bet that the worst of the steepest economic decline since the Great Depression is ending. Then again, they may end their recent winning streak.

It's one of those days.

S&P Futures expiring in September were little changed as investors digested the latest batch of earnings news. These recent quarterly reports have been largely viewed positively. Some investors may be worrying if stock valuations have gotten too rich.

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the company's inventory and SG&A control should help earnings and the stock's risk/reward is compelling at current levels. The firm raised its target on shares to $7 from $5.
• ThinkEquity upgraded Human Genome (NASDAQ: HGSI) to Buy from Accumulate to reflect higher assumptions for the company's Lupus treatment Benlysta. The firm raised its target on shares to $26 from $18.
• KeyBanc upgraded Parkway Properties (NYSE: PKY) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, improving fundamentals, and stable capital position. The firm has a $17 target on the stock.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan.
• BioScrip (NASDAQ: BIOS) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says existing players would give better deals to the taxpayers here.

If the FDIC is poised to split banks to lure buyers, which is the headline from last week's papers, the buyers worth luring are not only the NewAlliances (NYSE: NAL) (Cramer's Take) and the First Niagaras (NASDAQ: FNFG) (Cramer's Take) but also Chinese banks and HSBC (NYSE: HBC) (Cramer's Take) and Barclays (NYSE: BCS) (Cramer's Take), both of which reported great quarters yesterday.

We keep focusing on these private-equity entrees that need to be intrigued to get in. I say to heck with them. That's nonsense. We need deep-pocketed existing banks that want to be bigger in the United States, not more handouts to private-equity firms that then bring them public in our faces and make a ton of money off us. We need ones that know how to run banks and know how to compete against the new colossuses like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take), JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded KBW, Inc (NYSE: KBW) to Market Perform from Underperform as it sees increased capital-raising opportunities for small and mid-sized banks and believes the company's quarter is off to a strong start. The firm raised its target price to $23 from $18.
• Pali Capital upgraded Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) to Buy from Neutral on expectations the company's strategic shift towards advisory, distribution and retail will be monetized sooner than expected and its capital markets business is gaining traction. The firm set a $33 target on the stock.
• Baird upgraded Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $58 from $55 based on valuation predictable earnings, and its market leading platform.
• Apollo Investment (NYSE: AINV) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) was lifted at Goldman to Buy from Neutral.
• Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Analyst upgrades:

• Stephens upgraded Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) to Overweight from Equal Weight following the company's Q1 results and raised its target on shares to $15 from $8.
  
• Goldman upgraded Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) to Neutral from Sell and raised their target to $11 from $7 citing better earnings prospects and stabilizing volumes.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Parkway Properties (NYSE: PKY) to Hold from Underweight citing the company's improved balance sheet and valuation.
• Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) was raised to Buy from Sell at Royal Bank of Scotland.
  
• First Potomac (NYSE: FPO) was upgraded at RBC Capital to Sector Perform from Underperform.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Home Depot (NYSE: HD) to Buy from Hold as they expect significant multiple expansion as earnings revisions start to bottom out and the market starts to factor in a recovery. The firm raised its price target to $24 from $18-$20.
  
• Goldman upgraded HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Neutral from Sell and removed the stock from their Asia Pacific Sell List given the company's plans to stop making new loans at its U.S. unit.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Ensco International (NYSE: ESV) to Hold from Sell on valuation as it believes weakening shallow water demand is priced into shares at current levels. The firm raised its target price to $32 from $30.
• Liberty Global (NASDAQ: LBTYA) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) was lifted to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.

If stocks continue in the direction indicated this morning by U.S. stock futures, then Wall Street may be in for a fourth day of gain, following three days that had the markets spike 11%. The question on most minds is whether it is yet another sucker rally or a sustainable one, that is -- have we seen the bottom?

With confidence in the banking sector resuming somewhat after both Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) said they were profitable so far this year, and with what might be an indication consumer spending has bottomed with Thursday's better-than-expected retail sales numbers, some think this rally is for real. Other signs investors point to are GM (NYSE: GM)'s announcement it wouldn't need the last of the government loans, or GE (NYSE: GE)'s jump despite a rating downgrade, as well as the recent Big Pharma mega-deals. Even the chip industry may be rebounding.

Sorry, hedgies. Headhunters think you have another 20,000 job losses ahead in 2009, representing a 10% industry contraction. As if it wasn't bad enough that your base salaries were getting hammered.

Yet Vikram Pandit shocked with news that Citigroup, Inc. (NYS: C) may run a profit. The question -- for how long? Credit cards, commercial real estate, and many other shoes still dropping. Our Piqqem Sentiment on TARP recipients shows neutral across the board, so could Vik be right, and could it be that the gloom is lifting? Has TARP really been great coverage?

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) was upgraded following its Q1 release and guidance.
• America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) posted higher earnings in Q3 and same-store sales growth.
• AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) was upgraded by an analysts who felt that consensus estimates are beatable.
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE BRK.A) suffered a big profit decline, its fifth straight quarterly decline.
• Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) posted horrible Q4 results as the values of its portfolio shrank.

In the infamous words of Rod Roddy, HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) come on down! You're next on the Earnings are Falling (or The Price is Wrong if you like).

The banking firm announced this morning that its 2008 profit fell some 70%, which is prompting the firm to halt most of its U.S. consumer lending business. HSBC's net profit fell to $5.73 billion from $19.13 billion a year ago. In North America, HSBC took a goodwill charge of $10.6 billion stemming from the restructure of the region. Taking this charge out of the equation, HSBC's profit dropped 18% to $19.9 billion. Experts had expected a pretax profit of roughly $20 billion.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Check Point Software (NASDAQ: CHKP) to Buy from Hold as they believe the recently acquired Nokia security appliance business should drive 2009 revenue and EPS meaningfully higher. The firm raised their target price to $27 from $20.
  
• Goldman upgraded Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to its Conviction Buy List. The firm expects shares to outperform even if phones don't given the overly negative value for the business.
  
• Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital. The firm cites improving margin visibility and execution, and lowered expectations for the upgrade.
• Ares Capital (NASDAQ: ARCC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) was raised at Canaccord to Buy from Hold.
  
• Lloyds TSB (NYSE: LYG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded Venoco (NYSE: VQ) to Underweight from Overweight based on valuation and debt concerns.
  
• UBS downgraded MEMC Electronic (NYSE: WFR) to Neutral from Buy, added shares to the Short-Term Sell List and lowered their target to $14.50 from $20. The firm believes 2009 wafer sales will be much worse than expected.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded SINA (NASDAQ: SINA) to Hold from Buy to reflect integration risks from the recent acquisition of Focus Media's digital OOH assets as they see little room for near-term upside.
• Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) was cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Telus (NYSE: TU) was downgraded at Banc of America/Merrill to Underperform from Neutral.

Analyst initiations:

• Societe Generale believes HSBC (NYSE: HBC) will need to cut its dividend and raise additional capital in order to strengthen its capital base. Shares were initiated with a Sell rating.
  
• Citigroup initiated United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) with a Hold rating and $55 target. The firm sees downside risk to the company's guidance and believes consensus estimates could be too high.
  
• B. Riley assumed Matrixx Initiatives (NASDAQ: MTXX) with a Buy rating and $22 target. The firm finds shares attractively valued and sees limited downside risk from current levels.
• ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) was initiated at Deutsche Bank with a Hold rating.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they find the risk/reward compelling at current levels. Jefferies has a $2 target on the stock.
  
• Dresdner upgraded HSBC (NYSE: HBC) to Buy from hold on valuation as they believe the dividend cut is fully priced in at current levels.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) to Neutral from Underweight on valuation as they recommend short positions take profits at current levels.
• Kellogg (K) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• RPM, Inc (NYSE: RPM) and Valspar (NYSE: VAL) were upgraded at KeyBanc to Buy from Hold.
  
• Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded Dune Energy (AXE: DNE) to Underperform from Hold to reflect weak commodity prices and the company's reduced financial flexibility. The firm lowered its target price to 10c from 30c.
• Baird downgraded NeuStar (NYSE: NSR) to Neutral from Outperform and lowered their target to $20 from $22 based on 2009 revenue concerns and the CFO's departure.
  
• UBS cut Viacom (NYSE: VIA) to Neutral from Buy and lowered its target to $18 from $27. The firm believes advertising declines will be worst than expected and that Film expectations are too high.
• Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) was lowered to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Kindred Healthcare (NYSE: KND) and Tenet Healthcare (THC) were downgraded at Barclays to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  
• Cynosure (NASDAQ: CYNO) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup.

Analyst initiations:

• Keefe Bruyette believes Blackstone's (NYSE: BX) operating results and cash flow generation are likely to remain depressed well into 2009 given the weakening economy. The firm started shares with a Market Perform rating and $6 target.
  
• Oppenheimer views Brinks (NYSE: BCO) as a pure-play secure logistics company and feels it is well positioned to take advantage of a recent decline in acquisition prices. The firm has an Outperform rating and $32 target on the stock.
• Kellogg (NYSE: K) was initiated with a Buy rating and $52 target at Janney Montgomery.
• Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) was started at Barclays with an Equal Weight rating.
• Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) was initiated with a Market Perform rating and $59 target at Bernstein.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) announced Tuesday it had hired Carol Bartz, former Autodesk CEO, as its new CEO. Already from the start, her style and address were apparently different from her predecessor's. Yahoo also said President Sue Decker will resign after a transitional period. YHOO shares gained over 2% in premarket trading.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) warned of a fourth-quarter loss of some $6.4 billion, mostly due to poor performance in its credit business but also because of some equity trading losses. It expects to have further write-downs on its exposure to bond insurers. DB shares were nearly 10% lower in premarket trade.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Citigroup (NYSE: C) late Tuesday announced their plan for a brokerage joint venture. Citi sold to Morgan a 51% stake in its Smith Barney unit for $2.7 billion. When the deal closes, Citi said it will recognize a gain of roughly $5.8 billion after taxes. There were no real surprises there. With that, Citi, which has become a financial supermarket, is now seen as trying to save its core banking unit by shrinking itself by one-third, according to the Wall Street Journal, which also reported that "Citi will also announce steps to shed two consumer-finance units and the company's private-label credit-card business, and scale back on the trading the company does on its own behalf." MS shares were over 3% lower in premarket trading, Citi' over 4.5% lower.

HSBC (NYSE: HBC) may have to raise $14 billion due to more losses from mortgage-related securities and other credit instruments. Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group has cut Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to Underperform and set a new price target of $9. According to Reuters, Friedman said Bank of America's equity ratio is so low that the bank will have to raise a "substantial" amount of capital, diluting existing shareholders.

Since BAC trades at $14 and has a 52-week low of $9, the new target is shocking. But it may be a reasonable assumption about all big banks. They may be headed toward new multi-year lows even after cash injections from the Treasury.

Most analysts see banks posting further large losses for the fourth quarter and few expect a recovery in early 2009 as housing prices continue to drop, corporate lending and underwriting dry up, and consumer credit defaults rise. At $7.40, Citigroup (NYSE: C) trades at about twice its low, but a really bad quarter could change that. The same holds true for Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), which several stock analysts say will have to raise more money. It trades at $26, not far from its 52-week low of $19.89.

Two months ago, owning bank stocks looked like a very good way to make some quick money. Now, it is time to dump them.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.