Banks around the world have been raising capital in the last few months. If the market is efficient, then the cost of capital for these banks should tell us something about how risky they are. Based on the relative cost of capital of banks in the U.S. compared to those in France, Germany and Switzerland, the world's riskiest banks are right here in the good old USA. The safest banks? French ones.

How so? Here is the rough (due to different capital structures) after-tax cost of capital for the banks in different countries:

• U.S.: Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is paying a 17% interest rate and Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) pays almost 17%
• UK: Barclays pays 16%; HBOS, Lloyds TSB; and Royal Bank of Scotland pay about 12%
• Germany: Commerzbank pays 10%
• Switzerland: UBS's interest rate is relative bargain of 9.9%
• France: BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and four others pay the lowest rate -- 5% -- for their capital

Maybe there's some sort of trading opportunity to short U.S banks and go long French ones. C'est la vie!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book, You Can't Order Change: Lessons From Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, will be published by Portfolio on December 26, 2008. He has no financial interest in Goldman or Morgan Stanley securities.

I am the Global Editor at MoneyShow.com and each week I interview an investing expert. This week, I spoke with John Snowden, contributor to The IRS Report newsletter, who says the British economy will slide deeper into recession and the markets will move lower, too.

Q. What is your outlook for Great Britain's economy in the next 12 months?

A. We are on the cusp of a recession, but we have yet to feel the real crunch from a retailing viewpoint. The forthcoming all-important Christmas trading period will give more of a guideline by [the middle or end of] January. There is as yet no real sign of confidence returning, which would suggest we are in for a long haul. Borrowings are at an all-time high and will probably double again next year. This may mean higher taxes as well as labor unrest which would be detrimental for the economy.

Lower oil prices do help and commodity prices are falling, and will start to be reflected in government statistics by early next year. Hence, economy fears are turning towards deflation rather than inflation

Q: So, at what point do you expect to see actual recession in the UK?

A: My guess is that Christmas festivities may distort the reality, but I am sure that by February 2009, we in the UK will be feeling the full weight of recession.

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB) to Outperform from Market Perform as they find AB's risk/reward attractive given its attractive long-term business model. Wachovia upgraded Watson Pharma (NYSE: WPI) and Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Outperform from Market Perform citing valuations and positive drivers for generics that include patent expirations and market share expansion.
• UBS raised Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) to Neutral from Sell on expected pricing power following the HBOS (OTC: HBOOY) acquisition.
• Otter Tail (NASDAQ: OTTR) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
• GFI Group (NASDAQ: GFIG) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
• Merrill upgraded Logitech (NASDAQ: LOGI) to Neutral from Underperform.

Analyst downgrades:

• JP Morgan downgraded shares of Lloyds TSB Group to Underweight from Neutral on capital concerns and believes the HBOS acquisition is not in the best interest of shareholders.
• Stephens downgraded Universal Truckload (NASDAQ: UACL) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation and concerns about a slowdown in the flatbed sector. The firm's target remains $28.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Corinthian Colleges, MSC Industrial and HBOS Plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Piper downgraded shares of Corinthian Colleges (NASDAQ: COCO) to Neutral from Buy as they expect the company to face difficulty maintaining Title IV lending at its high default rate schools.
  
• Jefferies downgraded shares of MSC Industrial (NYSE: MSM) to Hold from Buy on valuation, as there is not enough upside to their $50 target to maintain a Buy rating
  
• Credit Suisse lowered HBOS Plc (OTC: HBOOY) to Underperform from Neutral to reflect the weakening housing and mortgage environment.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein.
  
• B. Riley lowered Iomega (NYSE: IOM) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman downgraded Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ: BARE) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) to Neutral from Buy and Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) to Sell from Neutral.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Brokers and asset managers, Credit Suisse, Barclays and HBOS PLC were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Lehman downgraded the brokers and asset managers sector to Neutral from Positive and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) to Equal Weight from Overweight. The firm cited weakness in the credit markets for the Bear Stearns downgrade and potential further write downs at Merrill Lynch for its downgrade.
  
• Bear Stearns downgraded shares of Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Peer Perform from Outperform as they see risks to 2008 estimates from an expected decline in investment-banking revenue.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral and HBOS PLC (OTC: HBOOY) was downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at HSBC to reflect the potential for higher write downs on debt securities and slower revenue growth.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• British Airways (OTC: BAIRY) was downgraded to Sell from Hold at ABN Amro.
  
• Merrill downgraded British Sky Broadcasting (NYSE: BSY) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Merriman downgraded Zoran (NASDAQ: ZRAN) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) to Hold from Buy.