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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Missing the big picture

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says don't heed the pundits -- allow yourself to believe things are improving.

Skeptical, or impossible? That's how I am posing the dilemma of the "pull through" argument whether it involves Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and "Cash for Clunkers" or Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and the $8,000 tax credit.

Right now any time there is a stimulus program of any sort, the pundits/media/money managers all decide the most important single issue isn't what it will do to the numbers, or whether it will work at all, but what will it do to the "pull through." How much of future sales will it "steal"?

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Missing the big picture

Durable goods numbers may bode well for some stocks (SHLD, HD, AAPL)

Durable goods are products that should last more than 3 years. That usually includes things like appliances, furnishings, and heavy equipment. The Commerce Department tracks this data and the number of orders for these things popped up an extra 4.9% in July, which was a nice surprise.

Why do I care whether North Americans are buying a new fridge? This is actually a metric you should watch for insight into potential corporate profits. If durable goods (which tend to cost a lot) are being purchased at an increasing rate, it bodes well for the companies that produce and sell those products.

Continue reading Durable goods numbers may bode well for some stocks (SHLD, HD, AAPL)

Earnings highlights: B&N, Deere, Heinz, Home Depot, HP, Sears, Target ...

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: B&N, Deere, Heinz, Home Depot, HP, Sears, Target ...

Home Depot quarter better than expected; shares set to recover

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) didn't have the best quarter when it reported this morning, but it was better than the market expected. The largest home improvement retailer in the U.S. saw net income of $1.12 billion, down from $1.2 billion from the year-ago quarter. It reported earnings per share of $0.67, ahead of the consensus analyst estimate of $0.59.

The retailer's shares had dipped over 3.8% Monday to close at $26.11 joining in the huge Dow plunge. Will HD shares recover? According to pre-market action, it certainly seems that way, as the retailer did skid through its latest quarter without huge bumps and bruises. Still, as markets have shown yesterday, there is the realization that the consumer won't be spending the economy towards a recovery. At least, not in 2009.

Continue reading Home Depot quarter better than expected; shares set to recover

Options Update: Home Depot volatility at 39 prior to lifting EPS guidance

Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is recently trading at $26.50 in pre-open trading, above its close of $26.11. HD reported Q2 net earnings of $1.1 billion compared to net earnings of $1.2 billion in the same period in 2008. HD lifted 2009 EPS guidance. HD August 26 straddle is priced at $1.43, September 26 straddle is at $2.35. HD September option implied volatility is at 39; below its 26-week average of 43, according to Track Data, suggesting less price risk after EPS.

Direxion Daily Emerging Marks Bull 3x (NYSE: EDC) closed at $94.77. EDC overall option implied volatility of 107 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update: Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Earnings preview: Looking for a Home Depot turnaround

While its rival Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) reported weak quarterly results today, Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) is scheduled to discuss its second quarter 2009 results tomorrow morning in a conference call at 9:00 AM ET. You can catch the live webcast on the company's website.

In that quarter, Home Depot declared a quarterly dividend of 22.5 cents per share, as well as shared its long-term priorities with analysts. The Atlanta-based home improvement chain is expected to report that earnings fell 16.9% from a year ago to $0.59 per share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. That's up from better-than-expected $0.35 per share in the first quarter, though. Revenue for the second quarter is expected to be 8.4% lower to $19.2 billion. Earnings have topped estimates in recent quarters, by as much as 10 cents per share.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Looking for a Home Depot turnaround

The week in preview: More retail results (and a few techs too)

Last week we looked at expectations for some retail earnings. More shopping mall favorites are reporting second-quarter results this week, and analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for significant earnings growth from some of them.

Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO), the teen-focused retailer spun off from Macy's (NYSE: M) in 1998, is expected to post a second-quarter profit that is 44.6% higher than a year ago, or $0.56 per share. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be 19.7% higher, or $451.3 million. For the full year, the forecast so far is for $2.98 per share (+25.8%) on $2.2 billion (+14.6%). Earnings of the New York-based company have matched estimates in recent quarters. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 13.9%, which is better than the retail industry average and rival Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF). Aeropostale's earnings multiple is 12x, and this debt-free company's cash flow from operations swung into positive territory in the first quarter. The First Call consensus recommendation is to buy ARO; The Motley Fool identified it as a Wall Street favorite. Shares are down a couple of bucks from the 52-week high of $38.74 back in July, but are still 123.0% higher year to date.

Continue reading The week in preview: More retail results (and a few techs too)

Five stocks for Father's Day from Kiplinger's ... and five more

Every year I find myself asking the same question: What to get dad for Father's Day. Well, Kiplinger's offers not to get our dads the same old presents -- another tie, another power tool -- but stocks in companies he probably likes or uses their products. That's a great idea, I thought, and decided to counter with five of my own.
  • Kiplinger's suggests: Diageo (NYSE: DEO), the seller of such brands as Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness and José Cuervo. Diageo has held up better than most during the recession -- thanks to a balanced portfolio of products, with higher exposure to mid-price, mainstream brands and less exposure to ultra-premium brands. The shares look reasonably priced. At $56.01, Diageo trades at 15 times estimated June 2009 earnings of $3.82 a share. The stock yields 2.8%.
  • Another to consider: Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP), the seller of such brands as Coors, Blue Moon, Pilsner and Rickard's. Beer, probably even more so than hard liquor is supposed to hold better during a recession given the cheaper price point. The company's recent quarterly profits more than doubled. The shares trade at 13 times forward earnings of $3.33 and yield 2.2%.

Continue reading Five stocks for Father's Day from Kiplinger's ... and five more

Earnings highlights: Del Monte, Men's Wearhouse, National Semiconductor, Talbots ...

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Del Monte, Men's Wearhouse, National Semiconductor, Talbots ...

Earnings highlights: Clorox, Deutsche Bank, Movado, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments ...

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Clorox, Deutsche Bank, Movado, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments ...

Hurricane plays: Winners and losers

"I have four Hurricane Season stock picks -- two bullish, two bearish -- to play this summer's potentially wild weather," says Sean Broderick in his Uncommon Wisdom advisory.

"Last year's stormy weather spawned 16 named storms, which was higher than the long-term average of about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes per year in a typical Atlantic hurricane season.

"The major hurricane forecasters have now made their predictions, and it's for a 'moderate' hurricane season. That's good news for America's oil and gas industry.

Continue reading Hurricane plays: Winners and losers

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations

Analyst upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Lloyds Banking (NYSE: LYG) to Buy from Sell as it believes shares are attractively valued based on the company's earnings potential post recession.
  • Susquehanna upgraded MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) to Positive from Neutral based on valuation and improving macro trends. The firm has a $29 target on the stock.
  • Piper Jaffray upgraded Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) to Buy from Neutral on valuation following the recent pullback.
  • MetLife (NYSE: MET) and Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) were upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James.
  • Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations

Earnings highlights: Home Depot, Target, Sears, Campbell, Deere and more

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Home Depot, Target, Sears, Campbell, Deere and more

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: PG, MCD, TLB, CL, JTX, HD, IPCM, MYRG and NFLX

Analyst upgrades:
  • Barclays believes Procter & Gamble's (NYSE: PG) portfolio mix provides better leverage to stabilizing macro trends. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Equal weight and raised its target to $60 from $56. Note the firm downgraded Colgate (NYSE: CL) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) to Buy from Hold as it finds the risk/reward on shares compelling at current levels and sees upcoming catalysts from McCafe and easing commodity pressures. The firm raised its target price to $65 from $60.
  • FBR Capital upgraded Talbots (NYSE: TLB) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect an attractive risk/reward, reduced risk of a bankruptcy, and merchandise improvements. The firm raised its target price to $4 from $2.
  • Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Baird.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: PG, MCD, TLB, CL, JTX, HD, IPCM, MYRG and NFLX

Home Depot (HD) tops estimates but remains under pressure

Home Depot First Quarter EarningsHome Depot (NYSE: HD) reported its first quarter numbers today, topping Wall Street estimates, but cautioning that the company's business remains under pressure from the current housing crisis.

Ahead of today's earnings report, analysts had been expecting to see Home Depot, the nations largest home improvement retailer, show earnings of 29 cents per share for its first quarter, but the company surprised to the upside with 35 cents per share. Sounds like good news, but Wall Street has been selling the stock off so far in today's action.

Continue reading Home Depot (HD) tops estimates but remains under pressure

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DJIA+17.4610,023.42
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S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 05:01 PM

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