In yet another example of how technology and the Internet can, potentially, both increase efficiency and transform business models, Google said it is now testing a new Web tool that's tracking fast-spreading flu outbreaks, The New York Times reported Wednesday.
Called Google Flu Trends, Google's philanthropic arm is testing the tool, which developers say may be able to detect regional outbreaks of the flu a week to 10 days before they are reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, The Times reported.
"It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly," Google said on its official blog, the Agence France-Presse reported Wednesday. For now, the service will track only flu cases in the United States, but Google is hoping to eventually use the technique to track the flu worldwide, The Times reported.
Google, Inc.'s (NYSE: GOOG) shares fell $15.97 to $295.49 Wednesday afternoon amid a broader market sell-off.
Here's is my quick form strategy for investing during an Obama presidency:
Health care stocks should perform well under an Obama administration. It has been made clear that within the next four years our healthcare system shall be taking on a radical new form. There is certain to be a massive infusion of new money into the sector. I would hasten to clarify that pharmaceutical stocks might not be the angle that you want to play here. I would lean more towards hospitals and long-term care providers. Check out this analysis from Kiplinger, to get yourself started.
Next, I'd be looking at infrastructure plays. I'd focus on materials, procurement, and construction, as they relate to roads, tunnels and bridges. This play will be more dangerous in the near term, as these types of expenditures will be more dependent on governmental budgetary processes, rather than executive edict. Jim Cramer recently offered some input about infrastructure. You might want to check out his suggestions. Then, you can find information about building an infrastructure position at TheStreet.com. Additionally, here's a great list of infrastructure companies which has been provided by Seeking Alpha.
To me, perhaps the most important investment angle to play through the next administration will be alternative energy stocks. I expect that there will be a great deal of money moving in there. Ethanol is said to be a sure thing. I myself am not so positive about that. Oh, we can be sure that there will be plenty of ethanol to go around. However, I don't see much financial return in it at the investor's level. I lean towards solar plays, and to a lesser degree, I like wind power. You can get a good feel for alternative energy direction by reviewing The Pickens Plan. There is no shortage of companies to invest in if you're looking for alternative energy plays. You can easily start your stock picking hunt by checking out the companies which are included in the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index.
As always, stock portfolio success begins with good research. Hopefully, I've given you some quality leads to get started with. When all is said and done, history clearly shows that the markets flourish under administrations controlled by the democrats. Let's hope to God that this time around won't be the exception.
This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.
"Should Obama win the election, we would look towards select sub-sectors of health care; one stock we would expect to benefit is health supply distributor, Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)," explains Kelley Wright, editor of the blue chip Investment Quality Trends.
"A President Obama will have to make good on his promise to deliver better health care. While this could create havoc for the pharmaceutical producers, drug therapies and medical supplies will have to be delivered.
"The 800lb. gorilla in the supply and distribution space is Cardinal Health. Cardinal is a global company whose distribution businesses consolidate pharmaceuticals and medical products from thousands of manufacturers into site-specific deliveries to retail pharmacies, hospitals, physician's offices, surgery centers and alternate care facilities.
"The company has recently taken steps to increase the percentage of cash flow into dividends and share repurchases to enhance shareholder value.
"The blue chip stocks that we recommend are chosen for the exemplary long-term dividend growth, a P/E ratio of 15 or less, a payout ratio of 50% or less, debt of 50% or less, and technical characteristics on the daily and weekly charts that suggests the potential for imminent capital appreciation.
"While the current dividend yield on Cardinal Health is comparatively low at around 1.0%, the upside potential for capital appreciation is quite large."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.
"If Obama gets elected I expect him to pay great attention to domestic health care issues, in which case generic pharmaceutical companies should benefit; India-based Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (NYSE: RDY) will fare very well under such a scenario," says global stock specialist Yiannis Mostrous in The Silk Road Investor.
"The two main prospects for the company are its participation in the generic Allegra business, which could generate about $20 million in profits.
"As Dr. Reddy's has increased its U.S. pipeline filings to 60 Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDAs) pending approval, its U.S. business should be back on track soon.
"The second prospect is a potential merger and acquisition spree among the Indian pharmaceutical companies in an effort to face competition more effectively.
"A viable merger will allow companies to reduce research and development (R&D), as well as administrative costs, since there's an overlap when it comes to filing for the approval of similar products.
The day may have closed down in negative territory for stocks, but even watching it all day didn't give one any major feel for the market's direction into the close. Today's PCE Inflation index came in at +4.1%, although traders have discounted this data as energy prices and even some food prices have started coming down from the May to June highs. Oil put in a serious drop to briefly under $120 and now traders are calling for lower levels rather than higher. You could throw up literally 5 issues affecting oil prices, but you might as well call it "air out of the bubble" rather than anything.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) sent most health insurers higher after it posted $1.24 EPS versus a prior guidance of $1.15 to $1.20 EPS and above $1.18 estimates. Shares were up over 5% to $47.00 in today's final minutes.
New York Times (NYSE: NYT) columnist and economist Paul Krugman, author of The Conscience of a Liberal, would never be confused with a loyal backer of the economic policies of President Bush.
Still, Krugman, in the academic tradition that argues that a scholar's most important word is "valid," gives President Bush credit where credit is due -- or at least a lack of blame. Krugman says it's true that the U.S. economy is a mess, but it's not true that the bad economy is entirely President Bush's fault.
Krugman outlines the unfortunate reality regarding the U.S. economy's 2001-2008 performance: recession, followed by one of the weakest recoveries since World War II, followed by another slump that technically isn't a recession yet. When President Bush leaves office, Krugman says, the U.S. economy will have created five million jobs, not nearly enough to keep up with population growth. By contrast, 22 million jobs were created during the Clinton Administration.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that also have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. But every once in while an exception is made for a smaller, innovative company, and with aforementioned in mind, Masimo is worth a review.
Masimo (NASDAQ: MASI)'s Signal Extraction Technology non-invasively monitors patients' arterial blood-oxygen saturation levels and pulse rates.
Analysts like MASI's product variation, featuring both pulse oximeters in both hand-held and stand-alone and the company's client diversity. MASI has sold products to more than 50 medical equipment companies. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for MASI are $0.57/$0.72.
The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on the development of potential alternate technologies to pulse oximetry monitoring, as well as MASI's core component costs. Further, despite MASI's innovative technology and bright prospects, the company's short public history places it in the high-risk category.
The First Call mean rating for MASI is: Buy [5 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $41.00 [high: $47, low: $34].
Stock Analysis: Masimo is a high-risk stock not suitable for moderate-risk or low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from MASI's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $18.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
Given the uncertain U.S. economic landscape, and accompanying choppy / consolidating market conditions, adding a few defensive plays is a prudent tack. Among insurers, Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) is worth an evaluation.
Aetna's wide product offerings and comprehensive coverage is an operational strength, as is its geographic footprint. These factors, along with cost controls, should enable Aetna to maintain solid earnings growth in FY 2008-FY 2009.
Further, analysts like AET's projected F2008 800,000-900,000 organic net membership growth in its health care segment, superior underwriting discipline, and cost controls. Another positive: on the big client side, the Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) selected Aetna as its primary benefits provider for its employees, beginning in 2009.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April 2008, the U.S. Labor Department announced Wednesday, a statistic below the consensus estimate as oil prices moderated during month, offsetting rising food prices.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected April 2008 consumer prices to increase 0.3%. Consumer prices increased 0.3% in March 2008.
Also, the core rate, which excludes the frequently-volatile food and energy component, rose just 0.2% in April 2008, inline with the Bloomberg News survey 0.2% consensus estimate.
On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices have risen 3.9% and the core rate has risen 2.3%. The core rate remains slightly above U.S. Federal Reserve's 'comfort zone' for inflation. The Fed uses the core CPI rate as one of its primary gauges of consumer-based inflation.
April 2008 CPI: 'Surprisingly tame'
Economist David H. Wang said the April 2008 CPI report was a bit of a surprise -- one that may help the U.S. economy. "The report was surprisingly tame. We do see rising food costs, but the energy component was not as bad as expected," Wang said. "Also, core year-over-year inflation is not too bad, and the Fed [U.S. Federal Reserve] will look favorably upon this, if it remains moderate."
With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree.
Still, the above wasn't enough to prevent the annual "alarm sounding" about long-term concerns, such as Social Security and Medicare, the likes of which occurred again this week when the Social Security Trustees released their revised 2008 actuarial balance, which is a status report.
Moreover, while it's never prudent to ignore the tax and benefits implications of entitlement programs as large as Social Security and Medicare, it's important that investors and taxpayers also keep in mind one undeniable reality pertaining to statistical analysis of this sort. Namely, that we're dealing with longitudinal projections stretching out decades in which -- if any one of 20 variables (or more) change -- receipts and outlays would change substantially.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth a review is Quidel Corp. (Note: Quidel is only for investors who can tolerate high-risk.)
Quidel Corporation (Nasdaq: QDEL) develops, manufactures, and markets point-of-care, rapid diagnostic tests for the detection and management of a variety of medical conditions and illnesses. Its products are used to identify a pregnancy, and detect infectious diseases, autoimmune diseases, and osteoporosis, among other conditions.
Analysts like Quidel's flu testing market share, and solid positions in strep and pregnancy detection. Analysts expect 15-20% revenue growth in 2008, after a double-digit increase in 2007.
The choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market conditions sometimes give the impression that growth plays do not exist, but that is not the case, and one growth company worth reviewing is Allergan.
Allergan, Inc. (NYSE: AGN) is a leading producer of ophthalmic, neuromuscular and skin care pharmaceuticals, and, via its March 2006 acquisition of Inamed Corp., aesthetic products.
Analysts see 10-13% revenue growth in 2008, but with U.S. sales growth dampened by the slow-growth U.S. economy. International markets accounted for about 34% of sales.
Concerning Botox, so far there has been no slowdown for therapeutic of cosmetic use, but the latter may record slower growth if U.S. discretionary purchases decline, in the quarters ahead.
Readers of this space know that due to uncertainties regarding public policy at the federal level, the health care sector insurance has been avoided. But there are exceptions, and WellPoint is one.
Analysts expect WLP's revenue to increase 4-5% in 2008, driven by premium rate increases and higher enrollments. Enrollments are seen increasing about 2%, with impressive gains in Medicare and Medicaid accounts.
Meanwhile, a company exit from an unprofitable Ohio Medicaid program, and the shift to a fee-based account for Connecticut Medicaid will also help the bottom line.
What's the new president - - Republican or Democrat -- likely to face after taking the oath of office in 2009?
Daunting fiscal problems -- and right at a time when Congress may have to consider more fiscal stimulus to jump-start the U.S. economy, one economist observed.
The biggest problem, economist Glen Langan said, will be the federal government's budget deficit. The United States is on-track to record a $200 billion deficit in Fiscal 2009 and a $241 billion in Fiscal 2010 -- and that's if the U.S. economy doesn't fall into a recession, Langan said, citing Congressional Budget Office data.
"The baseline CBO projections present a large budgetary task for the new president, but by itself it's not an impossible one, absent a major recession. The problem is there's no money available to tackle any other problems, including ones a Democratic president would address -- health care, energy policy, education and infrastructure. And don't forget the Iraq War, anti-terrorism efforts, and potential mortgage assistance programs," Langan said. "If there aren't changes to the tax code, given the current revenue structure and tax rates,to say the next president's hands are tied regarding new programs, would be an understatement."
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will enter the medical records business with The Cleveland Clinic, one of the top hospitals in the world.
According toThe Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "Under the pilot, patients who already use Cleveland Clinic's personal health record system can securely share medical information such as prescriptions, conditions and allergies between the Cleveland Clinic system and a Google health-profile online."
The program is a good idea. Patients' records currently are tied to the data held by doctors and hospitals. If a patient wants to access his data or share it with other health-care providers, he has to request and wait, sometimes for days, to get information that could be very useful in his treatment.
The Google program may ruffle feathers of both doctors and health-care software management companies. Doctors are concerned with keeping records private. Once they are stored and accessible on the web this will be harder to control. Software companies that supply programs for managing medical records may find that the Google system competes with some of their business based on organizing and storing patient information.
But, for the patient who now has new-found access to his own data, the program gives him power over his own medical data.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Here's is my quick form strategy for investing during an Obama presidency:
With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree. 
What's the new president - - Republican or Democrat -- likely to face after taking the oath of office in 2009?
Google
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