An economic slowdown in the United States and other industrial nations will continue to damper oil consumption growth, the International Energy Agency announced Tuesday, as it again trimmed its global oil demand estimate for 2008.

The IEA lowered its forecast for 2008 global oil demand by another 390,000 barrels to 86.8 million barrels per day from about 87.2 million barrels, the association announced in its latest monthly report. At the same time, the IEA revised its analysis of 2007 oil usage, saying the world used about 85.8 million barrels per day last year.

Oil traded $1.50 higher to $125.70 per barrel in Tuesday afternoon trading. Oil hit an all-time high of $126.98 in electronic trading earlier in the day and has risen about 100% in the past 12 months.

Oil surged over $113 per barrel Tuesday on word of supply disruptions in Nigeria and Mexico and increasing fuel demand in China, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Oil increased $1.90 to $113.66 per barrel Tuesday morning after Mexico, the third largest supplier of oil to the United States, shut its fourth export terminal Monday, while Eni SpA halted output in Nigeria, Bloomberg New reported. Meanwhile, China, which boasts world's fastest-growing major economy, said diesel oil imports increased 49% in March 2008.

The other major energy commodities also vaulted ahead on the news in early trading Tuesday. Heating oil jumped 3 cents to $3.25 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 2 cents to $2.84 per gallon, and natural gas added about 14 cents to $10.20 per million BTUs.

Supply disruptions jolt market

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday the supply disruptions in Mexico and Nigeria were negative datapoints the oil market did not need.

Oil rocketed above $111 and wholesale unleaded gasoline soared to $2.81 -- an all-time high -- after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report indicated that weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell 3.15 million barrels.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected crude oil inventories to increase by 2.5 million barrels in the past week.

The unexpected inventory decline sent oil up $2.71 to $111.21 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading. Oil hit an all-time high of $111.80 per barrel on March 17, 2008. The inventory draw also pushed wholesale unleaded gasoline to a record high -- up 5.8 cents to $2.8084 per gallon. Heating oil also surged 7 cents to $3.18 per gallon. Natural gas rose 40 cents to $10.09 per million BTUs.

Meanwhile, refineries operated at 83% of capacity last week, the EIA report indicated, up from 82.2% in the week ended March 21, 2008. Last year at this time, refineries operated at 88% of capacity.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Wednesday that the combination of an unexpected draw in oil inventories and the low refinery capacity utilization was too much for the oil bears to handle.

"The inventory report was a shocker. We've had building oil inventories for about the last three months on the slower U.S. economy so a three million barrel drop is a big surprise," Dietz said. "And as I've stated earlier, it doesn't take much to get this market in buy mode." Dietz added that he was stopped-out for a loss with a daily oil-short contract. He's presently flat.

Oil idled in the $101 range Wednesday at mid-day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that weekly crude oil inventories surged higher.

Oil gained 12 cents to $101.10 per barrel, off highs earlier in the session, after the EIA said weekly crude oil inventories increased 7.4 million barrels for the week ending March 28, 2008.

Crude oil inventories totaled 319.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined 4.5 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell 1.6 million barrels.

Historically, oil inventories increase as the spring quarter approaches, the lowest oil use quarter in the United States.

Energy commodities mixed

The other major energy commodities were mixed on the news in early trading Wednesday. Heating oil fell about 1 cent to $2.98 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 2 cents to $2.65 per gallon, and natural gas declined about 28 cents to $9.44 per million BTUs.

Oil fell briefly below $100 early Tuesday as traders anticipated a likely continued rise in weekly oil inventories and gasoline supplies.

Oil fell $1.68 to $99.90 per barrel after traders calculated that the U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly Wednesday data will show at least a modest rise in oil inventories, for the seventh week in the past two months. It recovered and is trading at $101.80 as of noon.

Inventories in the United States are rising, which is bearish for oil prices, and good news for U.S. consumers, who have had to deal with record oil and gasoline prices over the past six months. Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, said last week's attack on an Iraqi oil pipe and no gain in weekly U.S. inventories created a temporary $7 spike in oil, and he now expects oil to resume a downward path, given the aforementioned bearish fundamentals. Dietz added he is currently short oil with monthly contracts.

Oil prices fell to $106 Friday morning on word that oil flows from a southern pipeline hit by saboteurs had resumed, Bloomberg News reported.

Oil fell $1.50 to $106.08 per barrel in early trading Friday. The other major energy commodities also retreated on the news. Heating oil fell about 4 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline declined about 2 cents to $2.70 per gallon, and natural gas rose fell 2 cents to $9.70 per million BTUs.

Iraqi oil flows through the country's southern pipeline system to the Basra export terminal returned to normal at about 10 p.m. local time Thursday, an oil official said, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil Analysis: Prior to the Iraq incident, oil had been corrected to the $100 range, on likely lower oil demand and gasoline consumption stemming from the U.S. economic slowdown, and from record-high gasoline prices. However, two incidents this week, the Iraq pipe attack and a below-consensus weekly U.S. oil inventory report, caused a sudden reversal and a $7 spike in oil prices. Assuming bearish fundamentals remain the same -- and there are no further disruptions to supply globally -- traders now expect oil to resume its downward track as the spring season progresses.

Oil prices briefly jumped above $107 Thursday morning on news that saboteurs had blown up a major Iraqi export pipeline, the Agence France-Presse reported.

Oil rose $1.26 to $107.16 per barrel in early trading Thursday, before moderating some, to about $106.50. The other major energy commodities also jumped on the news in early trading Wednesday. Heating oil rose about 5 cents to $3.09 per gallon, unleaded gasoline added 1 cent to $2.72 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 3 cents to $9.43 per million BTUs.

One of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines near the southern city of Basra was blown up by saboteurs on Thursday, Samir al-Maksusi, Southern Oil Company spokesman, told the AFP. The pipeline transports oil from the Zubair oil field to the Al-Faw storage facility, where it is exported.

Oil spikes

The Iraq incident marks the second consecutive day a bullish data point has pushed oil prices substantially higher, and underscores the skittish price qualities of the world's most vital commodity, according to independent energy trader Jim Dietz. Dietz said that heading into the week many traders had expected oil to continue to trend lower on sluggish demand for oil and oil products in the U.S., due to its economic slowdown.

Oil surged $3.36 to $104.58 Wednesday morning after the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that weekly crude oil inventories remained unchanged and gasoline supplies declined.

Crude oil inventories were unchanged in the latest week, at 311.8 million, the EIA said. Gasoline inventories declined 3.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell 2.2 million barrels.

Historically, oil inventories increase as the spring quarter approaches; spring is the lowest oil use quarter in the United States.

Oil fell $1.02 to $100.82 per barrel Monday morning as traders/investors continued to lock-in profits and Saudi Arabia underscored its plans to boost production capacity, Reuters reported Monday.

The other major energy commodities were mixed in early trading Monday. Heating oil fell about 1 cent to $2.97 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 1 cent to $2.60 per gallon, and natural gas rose about 2 cents to $9.09 per million BTUs.

The crude oil decline Monday represents a continuation of a short-term downward trend, after oil surged more than $20 in less than two months, prompting some traders to take short-term profits, amid signs of likely slower oil demand growth in the United States.

The market early Monday was also responding to comments from Saudi Arabia, which said Sunday it is working to increase both oil production and refinery capacity in order to maintain global economic growth, according to Reuters.

Oil Analysis: The market will appreciate any comments and efforts by Saudi Arabia indicating it is striving to increase production and refining capacity. True, it takes time to increase production, but the market will take any expansion comments by the Saudis as a sign that more supply is on the way, which will lower oil prices considerably -- a welcome sight for oil importing nations and consumers.

Weekly crude oil inventories jumped 6.2 million barrels to 311.6 million barrels for the week ending March 7, 2008, well above the consensus estimate, the U.S. Energy Information Agency announced Wednesday. Weekly gasoline inventories increased 1.7 million barrels, while distillate supplies fell 1.2 million barrels.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected weekly oil inventories to rise by 1.7 million barrels. Oil futures fell about $1 to $107.02 per barrel immediately after the news.

Refineries operated at 85.0% of their operable capacity last week, compared to 85.9% in the previous week. However, analysts are quick to point out that some decline in refinery capacity is expected in late winter and early spring as refineries undertake maintenance and convert systems for gasoline production to get ready for the summer driving season, historically a period of high gasoline consumption in the United States.

Oil Analysis: Another bearish weekly inventory report for oil, but don't tell that to oil traders in the trading pits. Driven by institutional investors (and other investors) seeking a lucrative return on assets in the face of likely under-performing stocks and bonds, oil has to-date largely ignored a two-month rise in inventories in the largest oil consuming market, the United States, to trade at record highs. Currently, there's little hard evidence to suggest the pattern will change anytime soon.

Traders who favor technical analysis -- a highly specialized cadre in Wall Street's Concrete Canyon -- are quick to point out the mirror aspects to key price levels, in this case a psychological level, the $100 oil price.

The oil market's recent, consecutive closes above $100 per barrel are a show of strength from a technical standpoint. That fact, combined with the mirror aspect -- or what was once psychological resistance at $100, is now psychological support at $100 -- means that oil may remain above $100 for a long time.

A $100 oil floor?

Further, traders are now talking about a "$100 floor" for the price of oil. You heard right -- $100 as a floor for oil's price, and it's not a comforting thought. Still, as technical analysts will note, it's a possibility that executives, economists and policy makers alike, not to mention typical citizens, will have to consider as a potential economic reality, moving forward.

U.S. crude oil inventories increased 3.2 million barrels for the week ending February 22, 2008, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced Wednesday (pdf). Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2.6 million barrel increase.

Oil continued to trade at near-record levels on the news. Oil was down 33 cents to $100.25 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day, after trading above $102 earlier in the session. The other major energy commodities were mixed at mid-day. Heating oil gained about 1 cent to $2.81 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 1 cent to $2.53 per gallon, and natural gas declined fell about 10 cents to $9.11 per million BTUs.

Oil closed up $1.65 to $100.88 Tuesday -- a new record-high print close -- as traders piled into the world's most vital commodity on the belief it will serve as an inflation hedge if U.S. inflation accelerates this year.

Oil had hit an intra-session high of $101.11 earlier in the day before pulling back slightly. (Oil hit an all-time high, in inflation-adjusted terms, of $102.80 per barrel in April 1980.)

Energy commodities close up

The other major energy commodities also closed higher. Heating oil gained about two cents to $2.79 per gallon, unleaded gasoline climbed about one cent to $2.54, and natural gas gained about one cent to $9.19 per million BTUs.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz told BloggingStocks Tuesday that the market is not taking into consideration oil's bearish fundamentals, which show rising inventories in several key categories, but is trading more on psychology: namely, ambition.

With oil treading-water well above the $90 mark, a production cut by the world's largest cartel, OPEC, at its March 5 meeting would be "disruptive and scandalous," according to one economist.

Economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Monday the fact that oil surged more than $10 from a pullback to $86 after certain OPEC officials hinted at a spring production cut underscores the thin margin -- or safety cushion -- that exists between global oil supply and demand. Oil closed Monday up 42 cents to $99.23.

"OPEC says it's concerned about rising oil inventories this spring due to the sluggish U.S. economy but it conveniently forgets the small safety cushion. If markets were so well supplied as they say, oil prices wouldn't jump $5 or $10 every time an OPEC oil minister expresses the slightest concern about rising inventories," Affinito said. "The fact remains that although oil markets may be 'well supplied' there's very little margin for error or production break-downs in the international oil system."

The oil market, to put it diplomatically, has not provided a great deal of encouragement lately for policy makers attempting to stimulate U.S. economic growth.

Further, time was when an $80 or $85 price would be considered unreasonably high, or even outlandish. But given oil's breakthrough and close above key, psychological resistance of $100 per barrel this week, $80 looks almost like an acceptable price.

Moreover, oil mogul and billionaire T. Boone Pickens says we may get there. Providing a ray of light for concerned business executives, consumers and public officials, Pickens, who accurately predicted oil's rise to $100 per barrel, told CNBC Thursday oil should drop $10-15 in the second quarter of 2008.

"I think oil's going to back off," Pickens said during the interview. "The weakest quarter is the second quarter. We'll drop $10 or $15 a barrel in the second quarter. I think we'll be back above $100 in the second half of the year."