Shares of Mosaic Company (MOS) rallied to a new 52-week high today, topping out at $63.83 in intraday action. The stock seems to be enjoying a halo lift after sector peer Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (POT) was upgraded, but the spotlight will turn to Mosaic after today's closing bell, when the company is slated to unveil its fiscal second-quarter earnings.

Mosaic's performance on the earnings front has been mixed, with the fertilizer firm falling short of analysts' consensus expectations during three of the past four reporting periods. Ahead of tonight's release, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting a second-quarter profit of 35 cents per share, on average, down from Mosaic's year-ago profit of $1.12 per share. Sales are expected to ring in at $1.68 billion.

Continue reading Shorts Hedge Their Bets Ahead of Mosaic's 2Q Earnings

Shorts Hedge Their Bets Ahead of Mosaic's 2Q Earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 05 Jan 2010 17:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

First of all, let's look at what hedging really is. Take, for example, a farmer who grows corn. He knows that his cost for growing corn is, say, $3.00 per bushel. But he doesn't know what price the price of bushel of corn will be come harvest time. He looks at the September futures contract for corn and sees that the price is $3.30 per bushel.

To guarantee that he will get $3.30 at harvest time, he sells September corn contracts equal to his crop (each corn contract equals 5,000 bushels). When harvest time comes he delivers his corn to the appropriate delivery point designated by the Chicago Board of Trade exchange (CBOT) where the contracts are traded. It should be noted that if the price of the futures contract goes above $3.30 per bushel, the farmer may be called for margin money until he makes delivery, at which time his account is settled out.

Continue reading Should Geithner eliminate speculation in financial derivatives?

Should Geithner eliminate speculation in financial derivatives? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Tech stock VMware, Inc. (NYSE: VMW) is broadly higher today on the heels of an upbeat note from Goldman Sachs. VMW was added to the brokerage firm's Conviction Buy list, with Goldman noting an expected boost in sales. The firm also thinks that VMW is better-positioned than many of its competitors to ride out the economic recession.

In addition to the Conviction Buy nod, Goldman also hiked its price target on VMW to $29, representing a premium of 22.8% to the equity's Tuesday closing price. The stock could attract additional price-target increases during the short term, as Thomson Reuters pegs its average 12-month target from analysts as $23.31 -- a modest discount to yesterday's close.

Continue reading VMware rallies on Goldman Sachs' bullish endorsement

VMware rallies on Goldman Sachs' bullish endorsement originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Oil cost hedging is not fail-safe, as airline and consumer experience shows

Oil cost hedging is not fail-safe, as airline and consumer experience shows originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Reuters writes that "Credit card companies have little to celebrate as many analysts brace for 2009 to be one of the worst years on record for consumer credit." The exposure could be $70 billion.

It is fascinating the the credit card business has not learned much from the rest of Wall Street, or even from the airline industry. Perhaps it is because it made the mistake of thinking that the economic expansion go on forever. Hedging is a part of many businesses. Why was the credit card business any different from airlines who hedge fuel costs?

Creating a financial instrument that would allow traders to short consumer defaults should hot have been very difficult. Banks love to create these kinds of derivatives, which became painfully apparent with the mortgage-backed securities industry. Since some of the issuers like Citigroup (NYSE:C) also ran investment banks and trading desks, they had all the tools to set up a system to give their credit card divisions some protection against rising consumer defaults.

But, that has been the financial industry over the last three years. Bet on things that will fall and avoid those that are valuable.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

What happened to the idea of credit card hedging? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 03 Jan 2009 08:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This week saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average register its worst losses ever, extending October's reputation as a bad-news month for U.S. stocks. With banks failing domestically and abroad, and Iceland -- Iceland? -- on the verge of national bankruptcy, it's hard not to feel panicky about the state of the market.

In fact, not even market professionals are immune. On a routine visit to my dentist earlier this week, the good doctor informed me my blood pressure is high (yes, he's a very thorough dentist). My first response was, "Have you seen the market lately?"

It then occurred to me how much worse my hypertension might be if I didn't have the wisdom of market veterans to rely on each day at the office. With this in mind, I decided to survey a few of of my learned colleagues here at Schaeffer's Investment Research to see what advice they could offer you in the face of this unprecedented market turmoil.

Ryan Detrick, our senior technical strategist, notes that "It's all about a lack of confidence." (In light of the week's roller-coaster Dow ride, this seems to be the case for both bulls and bears alike.) Detrick explains that it's simple economic physics at work: "When you see banks going under in a matter of days, no one trusts anyone else to lend to them. This, of course, leads to a huge economic slowdown and in a very quick fashion."

However, he says, U.S. investors can at least indulge in a bit of schadenfreude. "The reality of the situation is, Europe is probably in worse shape than the U.S.," observes Detrick. "It seems like nearly every day Europe is bailing out another bank. We've had crises before, but this is the first one in our generation that has spread throughout the globe."

So, with panic sweeping the known universe, what's a trader to do? "Don't panic" seems like obvious advice, but our resident blogger and senior equities analyst, Nick Perry, finds that a bit trite. "I've lost count of how many times I've been told that 'now is not the time to panic,'" he says. "This bothers me for two reasons. One, is there ever really a time to panic? Two, it's like telling someone who's on fire to 'think cool thoughts.' In other words, it doesn't help."

Continue reading Don't panic!, and other words of wisdom from seasoned market vets

Don't panic!, and other words of wisdom from seasoned market vets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 09 Oct 2008 11:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday most airlines "merely seek to break even with their fuel hedges and caps, not profit from them."

Continue reading Oil hedges mean falling crude prices could hurt some airlines

Oil hedges mean falling crude prices could hurt some airlines originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 24 Sep 2008 12:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"We see the growing risk of a watershed decline very soon," warns Martin Weiss, editor of The Safe Money Report. For those looking to speculate on a downside move, or to hedge an otherwise long portfolio, the advisor looks at several inverse ETFs which benefit from a drop in stocks.

"With a new, potentially bigger wave of the credit crisis sweeping Wall Street, and with the latest energy price surge gutting corporate profits, the U.S. stock market is poised to suffer a far sharper and deeper decline.

"Our near-term forecast: A rapid fall - perhaps including a crash - to the market's 2003 lows: 7200 on the Dow, 770 in the S&P 500 Index, and 1100 in the Nasdaq Composite Index.

"That's too much, too fast for you to just 'ride it out' as many on Wall Street are recommending. oreover, it's too soon to say if those levels will be the final bottom; the market could fall even further.

"With the exception of of selected resource companies, we recommend unloading nearly all stocks. In addition, we suggest buying inverse ETFs, which rise in value when the market falls. Here are our highest priority recommendations:

UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (ASE: SRS)
UltraShort Technology ProShares (ASE: REW)
Short Dow 30 ProShares (ASE: DOG)
UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (ASE: SCC).

"These four are inverse ETFs - exchange-traded funds that you can buy and sell just like any other ETF or stock, but with one critical difference: They go up in value when the market index they're tied to goes down. And we think they're ideal for this situation."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Inverse ETFs: Four ways to bet on a market decline originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 28 Jul 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The problem with all those sophisticated hedging techniques originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 17 Oct 2007 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down .14 to 10.28.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) - puts more active than calls as prices increase on purchase for Hedges. Amazon was trading up .71 to $38.38 around 2 p.m.. Amazon is expected to report EPS of $0.22 after the close. Lazard has a Hold rating on Amazon said on 1/31/07, "At current price levels, we believe the stock largely discounts strong growth, operating margins expansion, and improving free cash flow generation." Amazon call option volume of 43,043 contracts compares to put volume of 60,717 contracts. Amazon February option implied volatility of 58 is above its 26-week average of 39 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Neurochem Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NRMX) May option implied volatility keeps Climbing into Spring Risks. Neurochem issued a press release this morning indicating results from the first phase 3 study of NRMX's Alzhemed for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease is expected in the spring of 2007. Neurochem and partner Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) have a PDUFA date for Kiacta for AA Amyloidosis on 4/16/07. Neurochem call option volume of 4,859 contracts compares to put volume of 5,129 contracts. Neurochem May call option implied volatility is at 152; puts are above 211 according to Track Data, indicating large price fluctuations. NRMX puts are expensive because Neurochem is difficult to borrow.

Option volume leaders today were: Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Equity Office Properties Trust (NYSE:EOP), Bristol Meyers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY) and Sepracor Inc. (NASDAQ:SEPR).

Daily Option Update - February 1, 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Feb 2007 16:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.