The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton is giving off signals that her campaign for President could be nearing an end. It's hard to know if this veil of tears is just Hillary using the crying gambit -- as she did in New Hampshire -- in the pages of her hometown newspaper. But as she acknowledges in the article, running for President is a marathon from which the fittest political athlete emerges victorious.

The Times article helps highlight a critical difference between Clinton and Obama which may explain why Obama is proving himself to be the fitter of the two Democratic candidates. With Clinton, it appears that the voter's job is to help her to realize her ambitions by giving her money or votes. By contrast, Obama presents himself as the vessel for achieving voter's hopes. In short, with Hillary it's about what voters can do for her. And for Obama, it's about what he can do for voters.

The effect of these different approaches is that Clinton appears tired as she struggles to break an 11 state losing streak in the upcoming March 4th primaries. It's as though she needs the voters to give her the strength to keep going and that evidence of insufficient support saps her strength. By contrast, Obama looks like he hasn't really broken a sweat as he goes from victory to victory.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who proved that presidential politics is a lousy investment, is poised to endorse Republican front-runner and his one-time rival John McCain, according to the New York Times.

This is hardly a shock.

Republicans, with the exception of Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, are rallying around the Arizona senator who is their party's best hope of keeping the White House. The GOP has a lousy history, though, with Arizona senators running for president. Barry Goldwater was trounced by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and odds are growing that McCain will get a whooping equal too or potentially worse at the hands of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton's chances of becoming the next president of the United States are fading fast.

Barack Obama swept the so-called Potomac primaries yesterday in Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, humiliating the New York senator by double-digit margins. On the Republican side, John McCain won a decisive victory over rival Mike Huckabee further cementing his front-runner status. The real story of the election, though, is the surging popularity of Obama.

The exit polls in the latest primaries probably are scaring the Clinton campaign to death. As The New York Times noted, "he received majority support from voters across all income and education levels, as well as across political ideologies, from those who described themselves as liberal, moderate and conservative Democrats. And independents, who were allowed to vote in Virginia's Democratic primary and accounted for 2 in 10 voters there, supported Mr. Obama two to one over Mrs. Clinton."

One of the Democratic Party's worst nightmares regarding the 2008 presidential election is coming to fruition: Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) will be the Republican Party's nominee.

Some investors / readers may argue that as a moderate, somewhat rebellious Republican and an advocate of the Iraq War, McCain will be a fairly easy candidate for the Democrats to oppose. Well, to borrow one of Vice President Gore's renowned, low-key allusions, Now, I can see you really haven't researched the matter thoroughly.

True, the short-term forces -- issues -- are against McCain. The economy is barely growing, or is already in a recession, and the Iraq War continues with little certainty regarding its outcome or ultimate impact. Further, because there's a Republican in the White House, the American people -- if decades of political science survey research mean anything -- will blame the party in power for not having solved the above problems, and this will take votes away from McCain.

It is not a revelation to state that Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-New York) campaign has stumbled and is reeling.

It would be a revelation to argue that despite all of the advantages that public policy experience, party apparatus, and political contributions affords, Hillary Clinton could lose the 2008 Democratic Party Nomination, and to an upstart at that.

When one is trained in public policy and economics, you tend to view the world, at least the economic and political worlds, through a social science prism, and with that lens one can detect three Clinton campaign errors that have led to the current nomination process state-of-things.

The economy
To-date, the Clinton campaign has failed to emphasize Clinton's biggest strength: how she would fix an ailing U.S. economy. Clinton has at least five policy proposals that speak directly to what many Americans need economically; she'll have to emphasize these to secure the nomination.

From the home office in Burlington County, New Jersey. I give you the top 5 lessons learned from the presidential election so far. The results are determined through a completely arbitrary process of my own creation.

1. Super Tuesday -- The mother of all primaries produced plenty of drama -- for political junkies like me -- and not much clarity. As expected, Republican John McCain pulled ahead of rivals Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won more states, but Hillary Clinton won some major contests including California. The big question is what happens next.
2. Money isn't everything -- Romney is discovering that buying an election isn't as easy as it looks. Chances are that he will be exiting the race within the next few weeks. It remains to be seen whether the conservatives who are throwing temper tantrums at the prospect of a McCain victory will -- as his mother suggested -- hold their nose and back the Arizona senator.
3. The debates -- Good lord, how many debates were there? A thousand? A billion? The cable networks had too many of these yack fests and allowed too many fringe candidates with little chance of winning to participate such as Duncan Hunter, Dennis Kucinich, Mike Gravel and Alan Keyes.
4. MSNBC VS. CNN -- CNN Keeps repeating that it has "best political team" about every five minutes or so as the returns come in. It's almost as if the Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) channel is trying to convince itself that it's true. The problem is that MSNBC's coverage -- even with the highly annoying Chris Matthews --- has been better. It seems like CNN's pundits talk down to viewers while MSNBC's are a bit more down to earth. Of course, Fox News continues to attract more viewers than MSNBC, which is owned by General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE ), and CNN combined.
5. Conventional Wisdom -- The conventional wisdom espoused by the pundits has proven yet again to be spectacularly wrong. Wasn't Rudy Giuliani supposed to be the candidate to beat? Wasn't Fred Thompson going to shake up the race? Wasn't this supposed to be cakewalk for Clinton?
   

Finally, remember that presidential candidates make loads of promises that they can't possibly keep. Figuring the difference between fact and fantasy is what makes politics so interesting.

As voters prepare for the Super Tuesday primaries, Democrat Barack Obama is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton while GOP front-runner John McCain is surging ahead of Mitt Romney.

Obama's performance is remarkable. A Gallup poll shows the Illinois senator trails Clinton 44% To 46%, according to The Wall Street Journal. (subscription required). On January 20, Clinton had a 20 point lead over Obama. More significantly, Clinton now is in a statistical dead heat with Obama in California, one of the big prizes in Super Tuesday that was once considered a lock for the New York senator.

All hope isn't lost for Hillary Clinton. Polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt at this point in the campaign. Nonetheless, Obama's rising popularity is hard to dispute. The Grateful Dead minus the late Jerry Garcia are reuniting for the first time in four years today for an Obama rally in -- where else -- San Francisco. During the last Democratic debate, Obama and Clinton were asked about whether they would ever join forces. That probably won't happen. For one thing, Clinton needs Obama more than Obama needs Clinton and given the nastiness of the campaign it seems doubtful that one would play second fiddle to the other.

As for the Republicans, it's about time to stick a fork in Mitt Romney. Polls show that McCain has a 2-to-1 lead over Romney, proving that all of the money in the world can make voters like you. Once McCain wins the nomination, you can bet that there will be plenty of photo opportunities of him looking fit and vigorous, particularly if Obama is the Democratic candidate.

The silly season has only just started.

Baring any last-minute scandal or divine intervention, it's a safe bet to assume that John McCain will be the Republican candidate for president. The picture on the Democratic side is far less clear. One thing is for certain, though, Super Tuesday is going to be a dogfight on both sides.

The Arizona senator, a genuine War hero who has forged alliances with Democrats when needed, may be the GOP's best hope of retaining the White House, though chances of that happening are probably remote. McCain is trying to court voters worried about the economy through his calls to abolish the AMT, fight wasteful spending and to keep taxes low. He is gaining some big endorsements including one-time rival Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwazanegger. Mitt Romney is losing ground to McCain in part because Mike Huckabee is siphoning off support from social conservatives.

The presidential race is started to come into focus ahead of next week's Super Tuesday primaries.

Democrat John Edwards, whose anti-corporate message never resonated with most voters, is dropping out of the race after failing to win the primary in his native South Carolina, according to media reports. Rudy Giuliani, who fell from presumptive front-runner to also-ran, also is expected to bow out and endorse rival John McCain.

Odds are that Edwards will endorse rival Barack Obama, adding to the growing list of backers which include Democratic stalwart Sen. Edward Kennedy. The Illinois senator is far from having the race locked up.

Barack Obama trounced Hillary Clinton in Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina, setting the stage for a dramatic showdown on Super Tuesday.

Obama got more votes than were cast in the 2004 primary. Former president Bill Clinton is trying to minimize the damage to his wife's candidacy, reminding people that Jesse Jackson also won South Carolina. That's true, of course, but Jackson won caucus, not primaries; it's an apples and oranges comparison. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA) reportedly is the latest in a long line of Democratic leaders to succumb to the Obama magic.

The wind is clearly at Obama's back. Though Clinton is on the defensive, it would be foolish to count them (her and Bill) out. Polls show Obama trailing Clinton in most of the big Super Tuesday states, according to the Wall Street Journal.

His campaign Web site has some interesting ideas on economic policy and some vague ones including:

Sometimes, the market works in mysterious ways. This isn't one of those days.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged more than 234 points to 12,543.95 after Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) posted a record $10 billion loss, retail sales were weaker than expected, and oil prices declined, dragging down energy stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index, fell 58.70 to 2,419.60 and the S&P 500 index dropped 32.10 to 1,384.15.

In an interview with Bloomberg News, veteran market pundit Laszlo Birinyi said, "There seems to be no end of bad news. Trying to bottom-fish may work when you're out there angling, but I'm not sure it works with financial markets.''

Good point. Investors in volatile markets often forget that stocks, such as Citigroup, are cheap for a good reason. Trying to pick a bottom in this market is going to be difficult because there hasn't been anything quite like the subprime mortgage meltdown.

So far, it's been a topsy-turvy presidential race. Of course, now the pundits are pontificating on how the pollsters missed the Hillary Clinton victory in New Hampshire.

But, there was also a big miss on the international gambling markets.

That is, on the Intrade prediction site, there was a 100-to-1 odds bet for a Hillary win (the website is based in Dublin, which I presume is a bit friendlier than the U.S. about online gambling). Yes, a mere $100 wager could have turned into a cool $10,000.

For the most part, the thinking is that Intrade tends to be fairly accurate. After all, the "profit motive" can be very powerful.

But sometimes things go awry.

So what's the sentiment on Intrade? Yes, people are wagering that Hillary will become the nominee (with a 59% probability).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

[Note: This is the second of a two-part series on the race for the Democratic Party's nomination for president of the United States. Read part one: Obama's New Hampshire strength highlights Clinton's vulnerablity]

Clinton's mistakes

Why didn't Clinton win by a bigger margin in the New Hampshire primary? The main reason was a misguided campaign strategy that presented her in too many town meetings and gymnasium forums, and not enough as a concerned, positive, relating, trustworthy leader and as a real person. Clinton has never been accused of not being intelligent or organized or professional: what she has been accused of is lacking that "likability" and "press the flesh" quality that every modern presidential candidate -- and every president -- must display.

Ironically, Hillary Clinton's campaign strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire departed from President Bill Clinton's winning presidential campaign strategy. What was an example of President Clinton's positive vibe? During his campaigns, when Bill Clinton arrived at a location for a speech and there were 400 people lined up outside of the hall, who couldn't get in, waiting to see the candidate, Bill Clinton wanted to shake the hands of all 400 people outside. No joke. Clinton would arrive one hour, two hours late for an event, if it meant he could shake hands and make positive, personal contact with as many people as possible. Hillary Clinton must do the same: she must be real, show that she cares, and show that's she's human, just like everybody else. That's a big part of what Hillary Clinton must do to move forward and win the Democratic Party's nomination.

There's an old political adage that goes, "Regarding the nomination process, Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." Tuesday's New Hampshire primary provided ample evidence of the above, for each party.
Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) strong showing instantaneously catapults him to formidable contender status in the Democratic race. His performance also suggests -- and we won't know this empirically until survey research has been analyzed -- that he has expanded the electorate. Obama increased voter turnout particularly, and unexpectedly, among voters ages 18-21. This age group has had the lowest turnout rate of any age group in primaries and presidential elections since 1952 when political scientists began keeping statistics.

Obama's appeal among independents was also high, and -- also troubling for the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) -- his appeal among Democratic Party-affiliated voters was much stronger than expected. Furthermore, African-American voters -- although not a major factor in New Hampshire -- now appear to be shifting decidedly in his direction nationally, a big change from the previously overwhelming support they gave to Clinton as late as this summer. As a result of the latter, look for the Clinton camp to face a markedly tougher fight in the South Carolina primary, which is the next hurdle, along with Nevada, before Tsunami Tuesday (formerly called Super Tuesday), on February 5.

Some of you may view presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's getting all choked up about her passion for the fate of the nation as making her more human, more real, and less like a stiff politician. I, on the other hand think, she gave it all away. She may have lost ground to Barack Obama in the Iowa Caucuses, and she will likely lose still more ground today in the New Hampshire primary, but I think that bit of humanity that she displayed will do her in. The presidential race will get harder, not easier.

Clinton has enough campaign money and personal fortitude to go the distance, but that video of her breaking down into a tender emotional "softy" is not what is going to get the first potential woman president elected. If Clinton were to be the Democratic Nominee for president, that moment will be front and center in the Republican campaign. Look for campaigning to start emphasizing personal strength more and more.

Think of Dukakis in the tank. Hillary's watery eyes are that scene and she has tanked her campaign. I cannot help but think of the old story about how for the want of a horseshoe nail, the horseshoe was lost; for the want of a horseshoe, the horse was lost; for the want of the horse, the general was lost; for the want of the general, the war was lost ... all for the want of a horsehoe nail.