In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Gold at $1,000. Better buy now or you will miss the greatest invention since tulips in the 1800s.

Or so they say. I say, what a bunch of baloney. Why on earth would I want to put hard-earned cash on something that may look pretty but has no real tangible value?

That's right, gold has no tangible value. Well, that's not entirely true since there is a vast cult of worshipers out there that say gold is the only thing with value. As a result of their die-hard belief, gold actually does have value, as we now see with AU trading for $1,000 per ounce.

Trading volume and news activity were both fairly impressive when you consider just how many traders and investors have headed for the hills or for the beach ahead of the Labor Day weekend. This morning's weak jobless claims did little to offer any great hope for Friday's unemployment and payrolls data. But less-bad retail data kept some positive sentiment alive. This was another one of those days where the overall bull or bear was a mystery figure until the close.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,343.47 +62.80 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,003.16 +8.41 (0.85%)
Nasdaq 1,983.20 +16.13 (0.82%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades
Top Day Trader Alerts

Analyst upgrades:

• FBR Capital upgraded Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect upcoming catalysts and the company's opportunity in subsalt. FBR raised its target on shares to $60 from $50.
• Citigroup upgraded Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to Hold from Sell on expectations the acquisition by Disney (NYSE: DIS) will close. The firm raised its target on shares to $50 from $31.
• JPMorgan upgraded Cubic (NYSE: CUB) to Overweight from Neutral on expectations the company will benefit from the Vix ERG acquisition and increased sales visibility. The firm raised its target on shares to $43 from $38.
• Siemens (NYSE: SI) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein.
• Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Thompson Creek (NYSE: TC) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) closed at $32.30. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.86% to $50.65 a barrel according to Bloomberg. April option implied volatility is at 69; July is at 66; below its 26-week average of 80, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), the fifth largest gold producer globally, closed at $12.15. Gold is recently down .47% to $954.30 according to Bloomberg. HMY April option implied volatility of 67 is below its 26-week average of 89, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"The Fed's bailout of the mortgage markets has reignited fears of inflation and of a slow-motion meltdown of the dollar," says Mark Skousen, editor of Forecasts & Strategies.

"That makes now a good time to own mining stocks, particularly Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), which made a very smart move in March when it bought Phelps Dodge for $26 billion. The purchase made Freeport the world's largest publicly-traded copper company.

"It now has a huge, long-lived, geographically diverse portfolio of mining assets. And the acquisition of Phelps is producing tens of millions of dollars in unexpected savings. The buy will result in an immediate 30% spike in Freeport's annual sales.

"With Freeport opening a new copper mine in Arizona ahead of schedule this year -- one that will produce at least 240 million pounds of copper per annum -- and the new company enjoying huge new economies of scale, expect this stock to continue its rapid run."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Luminent Mortgage (LUM), JetBlue (JBLU), Thornburg Morgtage (TMA) and Harmony Gold (HMY) were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Luminent Mortgage (NYSE: LUM) was downgraded by a host of firms following suspension of its dividend and 10Q filing delay:
  
• UBS cut shares to Sell from Neutral.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded Luminent to Sell from Buy.
  
• Friedman Billings and JMP Securities downgraded shares to Underperform from Market Perform. Keefe Bruyette downgraded Luminent to Market Perform from Outperform.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) to Underweight from Equal Weight based on expected competition from Virgin American and their stretched balance sheet.

• Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Thornburg Mortgage (NYSE: TMA) to Sell from Hold telling accounts it does not believe REIT taxable earnings will be able to support the dividend.

• Deutsche Bank and UBS cut shares of Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY) to Sell from Neutral after the company lowered its earnings forecast and the CEO resigned...

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Thomas Weisel downgraded F5 Networks (NASDAQ: FFIV) to Market Weight from Overweight.

• AG Edwards cut Nuveen Investments (NYSE: JNC) to Sell from Hold.

• Pali Capital downgraded Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) to Neutral from Buy.

• Matrix USA downgraded PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG) to Buy from Strong Buy.

• Wachovia cut U-Store It Trust (NYSE: YSI) to Underperform from Market Perform.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).