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Closing Bell: When earnings reactions misfire (CSX, DELL, GS, HNT, JAVA, ORCL)

Today was a strong day from the start, but shares traded mixed throughout the day. There was an exceptionally high PPI, but this was interpreted as already being artificial because of commodity price changes. Earnings are starting to come in relentlessly and won't lighten up for the next three weeks.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,357.14 +25.46 (0.31%)
S&P 500 905.55 +4.50 (0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,798.91 +5.70 (0.32%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: When earnings reactions misfire (CSX, DELL, GS, HNT, JAVA, ORCL)

Analyst calls: WFMI, SOV, STD, QI, NWS, ENS, GILD, ADBE

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Buy from Hold on their belief Sovereign will merge with Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) according to the terms on their October 13 agreement.
  • Jefferies upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Hold from Underperform on valuation as they believe the capital infusion from Leonard Green limits downside risk. The company's target was raised to $11 from $9.50.
  • Banc of America upgraded Max Capital (NASDAQ: MXGL) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, the company's strategic changes to lower earnings volatility and their belief it is well positioned to benefit from an improved P&C marketplace.
  • Qimonda (NYSE: QI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Cowen.
  • Health Net (NYSE: HNT) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • Parkway Properties (NYSE: PKY) was lifted to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: WFMI, SOV, STD, QI, NWS, ENS, GILD, ADBE

Analyst calls: ETR, THO, AMN, DF, FOSL, NSRGY . . .

Analyst upgrades:
  • Baird expects Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) to benefit from industry consolidation and the eventual recovery. Shares were upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.
  • Jefferies upgraded SPSS Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSS) to Buy from Hold on valuation and believes the company's cost cuts will be positive for EPS. The company's target was lowered to $28 from $29.
  • Banc of America upgraded shares of Entergy (NYSE: ETR) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and believes the company is unlikely to spin-off Enexus by year-end. They believe a spin-off in 2009 or no spin at all suggests a higher share price from current levels. The company's target was raised to $104 from $101.50.
  • AMN Healthcare (NYSE: AMN) was upgraded to hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  • Argus upgraded Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH) to Hold from Sell.
  • Transdigm Group (NYSE: TDG) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Analyst downgrades:

Continue reading Analyst calls: ETR, THO, AMN, DF, FOSL, NSRGY . . .

Analyst downgrades: NVDA, AFLYY and UNH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Air France and UnitedHealth were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • JP Morgan downgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's lowered guidance.
  • Deutsche Bank cut Air France (Other OTC:AFLYY) to Sell from Hold as they believe consensus revenue estimates need to come down.
  • Following UnitedHealth's (NYSE:UNH) lowered guidance, UBS said there is "little hope" for improvement in 2009 and that the company has above average exposure to the Medicare segment, which is being politically pressured. UBS downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Aetna (NYSE:AET) and Health Net (NYSE:HNT) were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Dice Holdings (NYSE:DHX) was lowered at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
  • Zhone (NASDAQ:ZHNE) was downgraded to Source of Funds from Buy at ThinkPanmure.

Option Update: Coventry Health Net & Health Net volatility up

Coventry Health Net (NYSE: CVH), a managed healthcare organization, is recently trading at $39 in pre-open trading, below its close of $43.

Humana (NYSE: HUM) lowered Q1 and 2008 guidance this morning and Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP), a health benefits company, lowered its full-year financial outlook on March 11.

CVH overall option implied volatility of 40 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Health Net (NYSE: HNT), a managed care organization, is recently trading at $31.43 in pre-open trading, below its close of $34.58.

HNT overall option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Motorola has no takers for its mobile devices unit

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Nokia Corporation (NYSE: NOK), Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics have said no to buying Motorola Inc's (NYSE: MOT) handset business, and potential Chinese interest is not there. The perception now, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," is that Motorola's problems may be to difficult to fix.
  • The Financial Times reported that the Los Angeles city attorney launched a wide-ranging legal action on Thursday against Health Net Inc (NYSE: HNT), one of California's biggest health insurance providers, accusing the company of defrauding customers by setting illegal policy cancellation targets for its sales agents.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to sources, the Economic Times reported that Tata Motors Limited (NYSE: TTM) may be looking to spin off Jaguar into a separate entity once the acquisition of the brand from Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is complete.
  • The U.S. government has approved the first virtual fence, built by The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA), along the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, the Associated Press reported. Along the 28 mile stretch of border, radar and surveillance cameras will be used to try to catch people entering the country illegally.

Health Net shares running higher

Health Net Inc. (NYSE:HNT) provides managed health care and other medical coverage to some 6.6 million members in 27 states and Washington, DC. Other services involve managed prescription drug products and managed health care coordination for multi-region employers.

The company had good news for investors earlier in the month, when it backed its full-year EPS outlook of $3.02-$3.06. Analysts had been expecting $3.04. Management also issued Y07 EPS guidance of $3.65, versus $3.55 consensus. The news boosted the stock into a mid-December consolidation "flag" formation. Then, the price popped into a late December flag, in concert with sector-wide gains on the 19th. Equities frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In the case of both HNT flags, that's to the upside.

Brokers recommend the shares with two "strong buys," two "buys," nine "holds" and two "sells." Analysts see an 18% growth rate, through the next year. The HNT P/E ratio (17.89), PEG ratio (1.27), Price to Sales ratio (0.45), EPS Growth rate (25.37%), Return on Equity (18.82%) and Revenue per Employee ($1.4 million) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages.

The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 400 MidCap Index. Institutional investors hold about 93% of the outstanding shares. Over the past twelve months, HNT has traded between $37.10 and $54.11. If I were to invest, I'd consider a stop-loss of $42.25. Note that the firm is expected to report fourth quarter results in early February.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+20.0310,246.97
NASDAQ-2.982,151.08
S&P 500-0.071,093.01

Last updated: November 11, 2009: 08:12 AM

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