Is there a way to cash in on the commodities bubble without actually playing the commodities market? (Which, Andrew Tobias handily dismissed in The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need: "It is a fact that 90% or more of the people who play the commodities game get burned. I submit that you have now read all you need ever read about commodities.")
Yes, there are a handful of ETFs that specialize in commodities. The Wall Street Journal reports that investors are getting interested in farming stocks and companies like Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON) and tractor maker Deere andCo. (NYSE:DE). Smaller companies like China's AgFeed (NASDAQ:FEED), which produces animal food and pork, is trading at about $16, down from $20 a month ago, but still nearly triple its price a year ago.
Two food commodities that the boom has not impacted too much are potatoes (which are not really part of the international commodities market) and sugar, which is heavily subsidized and mostly doesn't trade on the open market. Sugar prices recently sunk to a seven-month low because of an oversupply, Reuters says.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there are problems, but nothing looks dire.
The setup is pretty good here. We've got a mildly oversold market with lots of June money expected to come in as CDs roll over and people realize that the cash rates are so bad. We have no earnings news, which is good, given that unless you do a lot of business overseas without a lot of raw cost escalation (think everything from Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take) to Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take)) or you transport or mine oil, minerals and agricultural goodies, you aren't doing all that well.
We have the possibility of some stability in energy, as $130 has been difficult to punch through, even though we have not been able to build any inventories yet despite all we hear about how people are driving less. And the expectations for the employment number are so weak that if we get any job creation we are going to begin to hear that maybe the economy is on the mend.
Again, that's considered antithetical given the sinking home price/escalating food and oil price one-two punch. But, as I said last week, there is a finite nature to the bad loans.
H.J. Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) is today expected to increase its sales and profit projections for the next two years, as it reports results of its fiscal year ended April 30. The Wall Street Journal reported that sales are to grow 6% or higher from 4%, while earnings per share growth for the next two years is projected to grow between 8% and 11% from the earlier projection of 7% to 9%.
It appears that Vistaprint Limited (NASDAQ: VPRT), a graphic design services and printed products company, counts on referral fees from pop up rewards programs on it website for a certain amount of its revenue and profit and also relies on the referral of its customers to outside firms offering rewards programs, which turns out to be a monthly fee for services such as discounts on movies and amusement parks, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". Some believe the stock, whose shares have plummeted over concerns of slowing revenue and slimmer gross margins, may be trading too high for its own good.
According to people familiar with their plans, the Financial Times reported that the CEOs of UAL Corporation's (NASDAQ: UAUA) United Airlines and US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) will today meet to discuss the carriers' potential merger agreement.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Independent reported that for the second time this month, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) revised lower its calculation of analysts' consensus for its full-year profit, cutting its 2008 figure by nearly 8% to GBP5.876B pre-tax; Barclays cut the calculation 15% two weeks ago.
While the earnings season is beginning to wind down for the current quarter, there are still plenty of results to come. Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report results in the final week of May 2008.
These companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) down 2.9% to 33 cents per share, on $15.66 billion in revenue
TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) is expected to swing to a loss of a penny per share, compared to a penny profit a year ago, and report $55.62 million in revenue. And analysts expect Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) to narrow its loss 7.8% to 47 cents per share, on $801.11 million in revenue.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the exchange rate plus massive undervaluations make the great brands prime targets.
There's always been a groupthink in Europe about currencies. The companies that want to buy American companies have, at times, seemed to care more about the currency, or at least not buying a company in a country whose currency is in decline, than they care about the actual target.
That's what it looks like now that a large German company and now a large Italian company have decided to start splurging. It is no coincidence that Deutsche Tel (NYSE: DT) (Cramer's Take) and Finmeccanica are exploring Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) and DRS (NYSE: DRS) (Cramer's Take). These companies are selling for something like 40% off for those bearing euros, and neither potential acquirer has debt problems or subprime issues, so the deals don't have big borrowing problems.
That's what I am thinking about when I see the better-than-expected figures today from Unilever (NYSE: UL) (Cramer's Take) and the other day from Nestle. These companies are part of that same groupthink. They are looking, no doubt, at a Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) and thinking, "Wait, that's about a $10 billion company that's a global leader."
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
When it comes to this staple of kitchens and diners worldwide, the most common question after "Is it ketchup or catsup?" has got to be "Heinz or Hunt's?"
The Hunt Brothers Fruit Packing Company was founded in 1890 by Joseph and William Hunt in Santa Clara, California. It was a small canning business on the ground of a ranch, delivered locally by horse-drawn carriage. In 1946, tomato sauce became the flagship product, and a marketing push made the little red cans familiar across the U.S., and lead to plethora of other tomato-based products, including spaghetti sauce, barbecue sauce, and, of course, ketchup.
Today Hunt's is one brand of many belonging to packaged and frozen foods giant ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) ranging from Healthy Choice to Slim Jims, from Orville Redenbacher to Egg Beaters. ConAgra reported $12 billion in sales last year.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says they have successfully increased price, and their stocks have room to run.
It's tough not to be a Pollyanna after talking to Bill Johnson, the CEO of Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take), and after reading the Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) (Cramer's Take) quarterly transcript. Both of these companies have had to deal with hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars of raw cost increases, and both have not only come through with flying colors but are more profitable than I bet even they thought they could be.
PG is amazing. Almost every business was up much more than people thought possible, with divisions like razors and hair care (shampoo) so strong that you would think that suddenly a large part of the populace has decided to start shaving and shampooing for the first time.
Innovations, like the Fusion blade, have produced remarkable returns in a short time, as Fusion is yet another billion-dollar brand that didn't exist a couple of years ago.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lehman, Cirrus Logic and Heinz were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Citigroup upgraded shares of Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they see an "extremely attractive entry point" at current levels. They believe the company's profitable quarter in a tough environment, the Fed's actions to provide liquidity and management's track record all provide downside protection.
Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ: CRUS) to Overweight from Market Weight as they believe Wolfson Microelectronics' contract bid loss with a major tier-1 customer signals potential share gain for CRUS in the portable media player segment. They raised their target to $8.00 from $5.50 on the news.
Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein as they expect the company to post solid growth going forward.
OTHER UPGRADES:
UBS raised DaVita (NYSE: DVA) to Buy from Neutral.
Everyone loves ketchup (well, then again, I'm sure there are a few out there who don't). But should everyone love Heinz's (NYSE: HNZ) latest earnings missive?
I say the earnings were respectable, if not utterly spectacular, in the third quarter. The top line moved up a robust 14% to $2.6 billion in sales; operating income increased 8%. The bottom line, however, was, eh, okay -- $0.68 per diluted share for this Q3 versus $0.66 per diluted share for last year's Q3. A two-penny increase isn't a reason to party, I suppose. Then again, Heinz isn't one of those companies that inspire you to throw a party upon an earnings release. Like Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Kellogg (NYSE: K), and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), it's a consumer foodstuffs name backed by a portfolio of well-known brands that people gravitate toward every day in supermarkets across the globe.
Here's the thing about Heinz, however: it sports a yield of approximately 3.3%, and it is in the middle of a tight 52-week range. That is definitely an attractive situation for the stock. Heinz is being perceived as a safe, recession-proof play. I'm not sure anything is truly recession-proof, but I do think the yield is impressive, and I think that such a stock may continue to hold steady, and even outperform, in this environment.
H. J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ) is one of the world's largest food producers, offering ketchups, condiments, sauces, frozen foods, soups, beans, pastas, infant foods and other processed food products to retailers, the foodservice industry and the U.S. military. The firm's leading brands include Heinz ketchup, Ore-Ida potato products, Weight Watchers Smart Ones entrees, Boston Market meals and T.G.I. Friday's snacks. Sixty percent of sales are generated outside of the United States. Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) and ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors last week, when it guided Q3 EPS to 67-68 cents. Analysts had been looking for 63 cents. The Q3 results are expected to include commodity cost inflation, which the firm is overcoming with higher net pricing, productivity gains and favorable foreign exchange rates. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.60-$2.62 ($2.62 consensus). Merrill Lynch subsequently upgraded its HNZ recommendation to "buy".
HJ Heinz Co. (NYSE: HNZ) should have really strong sales this week leading up to Sunday's Super Bowl. With more interest this year than in any Super Bowl in recent memory, with the two storylines of the Patriots trying to run the table, and a New York team in the big game, not only should TV ratings skyrocket, but I would expect the number of Super Bowl parties to be up as well. Clearly that will benefit the condiment maker.
Heinz is trading toward the bottom of its 52-week range and sports a yield of over 3%. What makes this even more interesting is that investing guru Nelson Peltz owns a share. About two months ago, Peltz filed a prospectus for the $750 million initial public offering of a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Due to the ways SPACs are set up, he will need to make some kind of acquisition, and that deal may just be Heinz.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer has no position in any stock mentioned as of 1/27/08
As the leveraged buyout market (LBO) tightens amid the backdrop of more expensive debt, deal makers are looking to ride new investment vehicles to make their minions money.
We've seen a surge in popularity in what's called a "Special Purpose Acquisition Company," or SPAC. Bloomberg had a good article this morning on advent of the SPAC and what's happening in the industry as a whole. These companies, also called blank-check companies, are IPO'd after raising their funds. Once public, the founding management team needs to make an acquisition in a given time-frame. Shareholders decide on an individual basis whether they like the deal or not. If they like it, great. If not, they tender their shares and receive their money back.
Essentially, it's a hedged bet on management that their industry expertise will lead to a smart acquisition.
Bloomberg says that since the start of 2003, 144 blank-check companies have sold shares, raising $18.1 billion, with 13 of the deals coming before 2005, according to SPAC Analytics.
.gif){kind=logo}
This post is part of our 
.gif){kind=logo}
Earnings preview for Ford
Apple shares rise on report Steve Jobs is free of cancer
Toyota whups GM in the first half of 2008
