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Analyst downgrades: GS, LEH and AMTD

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Goldman Sachs, Lehman and TD AmeriTrade were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Neutral from Buy. The firm believes liquidity problems and de-leveraging in the capital markets will get worst before they get better; UBS also downgraded Bank of New York (NYSE: BK), State Street (NYSE: STT) and Invesco (NYSE: IVZ) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Following Bear Stearns' (NYSE: BSC) downfall, UBS also downgraded Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) to Neutral from Buy and said the company could be the "next on the list" for the confidence/liquidity crisis by some investors.
  • TD AmeriTrade (NASDAQ: AMTD) was downgraded to Neutral from buy at UBS and to Market Perform from Outperform at Friedman Billings. Friedman Billings downgraded TD Ameritrade citing slowing client activity as well as margin compression.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • JP Morgan cut Portugal Telecom (NYSE: PT) to Underweight from Neutral.
  • Goldman downgraded Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) and Holly Corp (NYSE: HOC) to Neutral from Buy and removed Frontier Oil (NYSE: FTO) from its Conviction Buy List.

Analyst upgrades: Lukoil, ENI SpA and Meritage

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lukoil, ENI SpA and Meritage were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the company's oil production, refineries and gas stations outside of Russia are not priced into shares.
  • ABN Amro raised ENI SpA (NYSE: E) to Hold from Sell after a meeting with management.
  • Meritage (NYSE: MTH) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS on strong results.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst upgrades: Heartland Payment, Holly Corp., Buckeye Technologies

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Heartland Payment, Holly Corp and Buckeye Technologies were today's noteworthy upgrades:
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • TAM SA (NYSE: TAM) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
  • Bear Stearns raised MasterCard (NYSE: MA) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Hancock Holding (NASDAQ: HBHC) to Outperform from Market Perform.

Analyst upgrades: U.S refiners, RIGL and JBLU

MOST NOTEWORTHY: U.S. refiners, Rigel Pharma and JetBlue were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Goldman upgraded the U.S. Refiners to Attractive from Neutral, citing valuations; the firm raised its rating on CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) and Holly Corp (NYSE:HOC) to Buy from Neutral.
  • Lehman upgraded shares of Rigel Pharma (NASDAQ:RIGL) to Overweight from Equal Weight following the company's positive R788 data.
  • Bear Stearns said the Lufthansa (DLAKY) investment gives JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) some breathing room to execute on its turnaround but notes the company's long-term strategy remains in question. Bear raised its rating on JetBlue to Peer Perform from Underperform.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst initiations: VNR, FUQI and ULTA

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Vanguard National Resources, Fuqi and Ulta Salon were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Vanguard National (NYSE: VNR) was initiated at Jefferies with a Buy rating and $19 target, citing the company's yield premium to other MLPs, and at Wachovia with an Outperform rating on valuation and yield.
  • Merriman believes Fuqi (NASDAQ: FUQI) strong brand and established wholesale distribution will drive increasing market share of China's jewelry market. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
  • William Blair resumed coverage of Ulta Salon (NASDAQ: ULTA) with an Outperform rating, as they believed the company's modest current market share and unique offering brings considerable opportunities to take further share from traditional department stores.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Goldman initiated Akzo Nobel (OTC: AKZOY) with a Buy rating and Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC) with a Neutral rating and $63 target.
  • CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) was started with a Neutral rating and $27 target at Goldman and with a Buy rating and $27 target at Citigroup.

Big block buyers bet on oil services

The Block Traders' Oil & Gold Monitor is a unique newsletter that focuses on big block trading activity by institutional buyers. Through a sophisticated analysis of market maker hedge positions, editor Peter Way determines forecasted gains for specific sectors and stocks. Here, he looks at some current market maker favorites in the oil & gas industry.

Peter Way explains, "The reality for crude oil price expectations are reflected by hedging on some $85 billion of crude oil future contracts. Every month in 2008 sees enough likelihood of prices at $80 and above to cause a brisk business in insurance at those levels. In short, the crude oil price picture is one of stability to strength from high levels. As with any natural resource, it's always safer to bet on shortage than oversupply."

Looking at big market maker activity in individual stocks and stocks, the advisor adds, "The value buildup in Exploration & Production companies is clearly already under way and is likely to continue. Expect to see E&P companies acquired by the major integrated companies. Expect to see Oilfield Services companies kept very busy as supply continuity issues grow more severe."

Continue reading Big block buyers bet on oil services

Block Traders: Exploring for oil explorers

In his Block Traders Oil & Gold Monitor, advisor Peter Way follows hedge fund and block traders to find stocks with the best prospects.

He explains, "When we look at the guys hedging trades in crude oil futures, it tells us they see far more upside for crude than downside."

Meanwhile, he adds, it looks like the oilpatch stocks should continue in a favorable environment. He notes that many attractive investment prospects are to be found in the smaller independent oil exploration and production (E&P) stocks.

The advisor explains, "These are typically companies that have their own reserves in the ground, and benefit from the industry's supply/demand imbalance situation like the majors. They may acquire each other or be acquired by major producers as the need for and value of reserves becomes even more obvious and pressing in the future."

Among those that appear to have better potential, he believes, are Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC), along with Tesoro (NYSE: TSO). He observes that both are benefiting from a long-term inadequacy of refining capacity in the US.

Peter Way adds, "Their current value is not in reserves, but in a fattening of profit margins in the process chain from upstream operations (reserves and extraction) to downstream (refining and distribution)."

Overall, he notes, "Given the worldwide energy reserves shortage and the high crude and natural gas prices it engenders, this fattening is not likely to be a temporary condition."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest investment ideas and market commentary from the financial newsletter community.

Block traders target oil exploration and production stocks

In his Block Trader Oil & Gas, Peter Way follows the big hedge funds and market makers to find out what they are doing. Here's a look at his top oil plays.

He observes, "The hedgers at the NYMEX are protecting their crude oil positions in ways that indicate they see continuing upward pressure on prices."

Based on this hedging activity, he states, "The outlook for the next 12 expiration months that the by major players at the crude oil table suggest little lasting price weakness, and a general level prevailing above $70 over the remainder of the year."

What are the best stocks to buy to bet on the trend for firm oil prices? To decide, Peter Way looks at the buying patterns of market makers -- the big boys on the trading floor.

From their positions, he notes, "Among the large oil producers, China's CNOOC, Ltd. (NYSE: CEO), Canadian Natural Resources, Ltd. (NYSE: CNQ), and Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) all combine historically strong odds and payoffs."

In addition, he notes positive market maker activity among oil exploration & production stocks. He explains, "With significant quantities of low-cost reserves already found, and prospects for additional finds tied up, these companies inevitably will get acquired by bigger producers whose customer demands exceed their yearly reserve findings."

For many, he says, it's just a matter of time. Notable stocks in the stock, he adds, are Holly Corp. (NYSE: HOC), Carrizo Oil & Gas (NASDAQ: CRZO), Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), Southwest Energy (NYSE: SWN), Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL), and Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM).

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 03:01 AM

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