As the calendar year winds down, the news no doubt will be full of stories (like the one below from AP) analyzing incoming holiday sales figures and speculating on what they mean for the big picture.

About the only confirmed company reporting quarterly earnings results next week is Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (NYSE: CALM), the largest producer/distributor of eggs in the U.S. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are, on average, looking for the Jackson, Miss.-based company to report earning $1.26 per share in its fiscal second quarter. That's 25.4% lower than in the same period of the previous year. In its first-quarter report back in September, Cal-Maine also reported a drop in net income as rising feed costs offset increased demand. While the share price has fallen 22.2% in the past three months, it is up 14.0% from a year ago. Cal-Maine recently completed its acquisition of a Tampa Bay egg producer.

Economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

Stock markets are poised to open higher as investors -- those that are not taking a holiday break -- reacted favorably to news that the government will allow GMAC LLC to become a bank holding company, giving the finance arm of General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) the opportunity to qualify for the government's $700 billion rescue fund.

That news will be tempered by data indicating the holiday shopping season was godawful. Retail sales fell between 5.5 percent and 8 percent compared with last year, according to SpendingPulse. Without auto or gas sales, the decline is between 2 percent and 4 percent, according to the Associated Press. Sales plunged as much as 25 percent in November alone.

Retailers are hoping to lure customers into their stores today with early-morning bargains. Whether that brings the companies some late Christmas cheer remains to be seen. With rising unemployment and falling home prices, many people skipped the holiday season entirely because they could not afford it. Many who could afford presents probably were not feeling very merry.

Other factors that may move the market include oil prices. Prices rose above $36 as investors bet that members of OPEC would stick to their production cuts even as demand continues to fall amdist the economic slowdown. The gain may short-lived.

"All the economic figures are pointing to demand destruction, and that's not going to change soon," said Christoffer Moltke-Leth, head of sales trading for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, in an interview with the AP. "There seems to be no end to the bad news from economic data."

Weather.com seems like a boring site, unless you are in the middle of a storm. It is actually a worthwhile exercise to look at how much snow is on the ground, particularly going into a big holiday weekend.

Shoppers are probably not going to get out much from Wisconsin to Boston. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are about to be hit by a blizzard.

All of that is to say that the weekend the nation's retailers need to "catch up" on weak holiday sales, is likely to be a bit of a bust. Hard to buy things when you can't make it to the store.

According to Reuters, "Retailers prepared to open their doors early on Saturday in a final, frenzied push to save holiday sales, with the added disruption of a winter storm hitting the country's Midwest and Northeast.."

Wouldn't the intrepid shoppers come out anyway with Christmas just days away? Maybe not. People like to cover up the embarrassment of being broke. A storm is just the things.

And in Seattle, they are expecting seven inches of snow. Short Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) on Monday.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

The family of Jdimytai Damour who was trampled to death in a Long Island Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) on Black Friday is suing the retailer in New York State Supreme Court in the Bronx. The complaint alleges that Wal-Mart's advertising created the "environment of frenzy and mayhem" that caused Damour's horrible death.

Despite the death, Wal-Mart continued running the advertisement in question -- which the complaint alleges is intended to attract the kinds of large crowds that asphyxiated the 6-foot-5, 270-pound Damour after a crowd crushed him at 5 a.m. on Friday when it broke open electronic doors as the store opened. Four others, including a woman who was eight months pregnant, were also hospitalized.

I think Wal-Mart will pay for its share of the responsibility for this death. The legal theory here may not work though.

I'd welcome any thoughts from the legally trained among you. Sadly, none of this will bring back Damour. But his family should be compensated.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Wal-Mart securities.

Buy.com led the Cyber Monday charge this year, having the best sales day in its history. While predictions for this year's retail holiday season have been pretty dire, it would seem more holiday gift buyers have the "shop in your shorts" mentality, taking advantage of free shipping and no sales tax to ramp up online holiday retail sales.

Buy.com, which competes with larger retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), has been around for over 10 years and features retailer categories just as diverse as its larger competitor. Some of the folks I've talked to say that, for the first time, they are doing the majority of their shopping online this year, mostly due to the deals they receive, the lack of local sales tax and with the majority of goods being offered with free shipping.

In other words, we're all value shoppers this holiday season. Once the Black Friday novelty wore off last weekend and prices returned to normal, shoppers kept lining up at the virtual doors of online merchants and will continue to do so until the end of the Christmas holiday. When one of the largest online retailers has its best sales day in its history despite the bleakest economy in its history, perhaps that is a signal of a paradigm shift. For many of us, it happened a long time ago. For the others, the gravy train of online shopping is becoming a clearer picture every day.

MasterCard (NYSE:MA) runs one of the best retail tracking systems in the country. That makes sense given how many transactions involve its cards.

Numbers from its data collection system verify that retail sales are bad, but the latest numbers show how bad. According to Reuters, "Overall apparel sales are down 19 percent from the same period a year ago, according to a report by SpendingPulse," Appliance sales dropped 22% about the same amount as purchases of luxury goods.

A week ago, the America's Research Group said it expected retail sales to drop 1% this season," the first time the research firm has forecast a decline in almost a quarter century of surveys." That number is almost certainly bogus and wildly optimistic.

Same-store sales at a number of the nation's largest retailers fell by double digits in October, yet analysts persist in saying that, while the holiday season will be rough, it will not be catastrophic. The deep trouble is already clear now, and it will certainly be confirmed when November and December numbers have finally been tallied. Those looking for a silver lining won't find one.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Upscale menswear firm Perry Ellis International (NASDAQ: PERY) is the latest firm to hit Wall Street with a bleak outlook on retail sales. This morning, the company unveiled its preliminary third-quarter results and dramatically slashed its earnings guidance for fiscal 2009. Chairman and CEO George Feldenkreis warned, "Our retail partners are expecting an extremely promotional Christmas season, but at this point, we have no visibility on what the Thanksgiving weekend and the Christmas season will bring."

In the third quarter, PERY anticipates diluted earnings per share of 30 to 33 cents per share, compared to 55 cents in the same quarter of 2007. Revenue for the period is expected to decline 2% from last year to $222.8 million. The final results will be released on November 20, ahead of the opening bell.

Looking ahead to 2009, the clothing concern trimmed its fiscal-year earnings guidance from $1.67 to $1.72 per fully diluted share to a range between 90 cents and $1.10 per fully diluted share. The updated forecast accounts for one-time expenses of 10 to 15 cents per share related to a strategic review of the company's brands and businesses. Revenue for 2009 is now projected to fall between $875 million and $900 million, down from a prior forecast of $910 million to $925 million.

Feldenkreis noted that the formal review process should help make PERY "a stronger and more nimble company when the economy turns around."

In light of today's slashed forecast and uncertain outlook from Perry Ellis, the stock could be hit with downgrades or price-target cuts. Zacks reports that 3 out of 5 analysts following the shares maintain a bullish Strong Buy opinion, while Thomson Financial pegs the average 12-month price target at $16.40. This consensus estimate implies an expected upside of 211% from PERY's closing price on Wednesday -- leaving ample opportunity for potential downward revisions.

Elizabeth Harrow is an analyst and financial writer in the research department at Schaeffer's Investment Research. She is featured in the video series Schaeffer's Daily Q&A on SchaeffersResearch.com.

The carnage at Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) continues as the company flails desperately -- and probably futilely -- to avoid a bankruptcy filing. The company announced that is laying off hundreds of workers at its Richmond, VA, headquarters, on top of previously announced store closings, liquidations, and 6,800 store-level layoffs. This is all in the past week.

Spokesman Bill Cimino told The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) that "Out of respect for our associates, we're not commenting" on the details of the layoffs.

The company's stock closed at 25 cents on Friday, down from a 52-week high of $8.24. Back in 2006, the company's stock traded as high as $30 per share. In 2000, the shares briefly traded at more than $50 per share.

The company's cash problems and inability to get suppliers to extend credit will prevent the company from being competitive during the holiday selling season that is its last chance to save itself.

Sears Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) may have enough capital to get the inventory it needs for its stores during holiday season, but the chain now needs to worry about whether its potential customers will have access to credit.

According to Bloomberg News, Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Sears, "and other retailers may lose as much as 8 percent of their holiday sales this year because lenders and stores are clamping down on financing."

For a company struggle as much as Sears, that much damage to sales could cause the company to close hundreds of stores and put tens of thousand of people out of work. Along with all of its brands, Sears has 3,800 stores and 337,000 employees. If its average store loses close to 10% of sales, weaker ones in the states hardest hit by the recession could lose 15% or 20%.

Sears might offer more credit to customers, but it risks that a large part of them will default or delay payments as the economy gets worse.

The Sears problem is an especially good example of what happens when a large economy goes into a flat spin. As revenue at companies drops due to falling consumer spending, those firms have to layoff workers to make ends meet. Those workers, in turn, are no longer consumers and their loss of spending power hurts GDP even more.

Sears is a weaker retailer then some, and the chances that it will have to downsize to survive are very high.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Up until very recently, retail executives were hoping holiday sales might be up 2% or 3%, but most of that optimism has faded. According to The Wall Street Journal, "Chief marketing officers at 100 retail companies said in a survey by BDO Seidman LLP that they expect their companies' same-store sales in November and December to fall an average of 2.7%."

Declining sales mean some retailer companies either won't make it or will be faced with significant store closures and layoffs. Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is likely to fold as may some small retailers.

Watch for a number of other retailers to hit 52-week lows, especially those that were struggling before the downturn.

At the top of that list put Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD). Same-store sales are already weak. The stock is off to near a 52-week low at $47.57 against a 52-week high of almost $140. The retailer could easily close hundreds of stores and see its share move toward $30.

Another retailer that is having huge sales problems is Gap (NYSE: GPS). It should have closed its Old Navy line a year ago. Now, that is more likely. The stock trades at $11, down by half from its period high. Unless it does some store triage, Gap stock would go below $7.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) had one heckuva holiday shopping season this year. In fact, it was the best season ever in terms of sales in the 13-year history of the company, according to the world's largest internet retailer.

Saying that the 2007 holiday shopping season was the strongest ever since opening its virtual doors in 1994, Amazon said that customers ordered more than 5.4 million items -- 62.5 items per second -- in a single day (December 10). In 2006, Amazon's busiest day saw sales of 4 million products, so this year was quite a lift indeed. The top items this year? The Jakks EyeClops Bionic Eye, Nintendo Wii game consoles, GPS systems and flat-panel television sets.

Have most customer shifted to online merchants this year instead of visiting local brick-and-mortar outlets for their holiday gift needs? Many retailers expect to see soft retail sales throughout December this year, but the shaky consumer environment apparently did not affect Amazon's sales this year. Of course, now all those credit cards are probably more plumped than the Christmas turkey.

With the last full shopping week before Christmas well underway, retail analysts are scrutinizing every sale at many national retailers to see how consumer spending is shaping up this holiday season amid recession fears that drove the stock market down a pretty decent chunk yesterday. Consumer electronics giant Circuit City (NYSE: CC) is set to report earnings come this Friday in what is expected to be another disastrous quarter for the retailer. Will this follow through to other retailers due to a soft holiday shopping season? With larger competitor Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) reporting Q3 numbers today, we may have quite a contrast in results come this end of this week -- or not.

Although November retail numbers were better than expected due to the full week of holiday shopping after the Black Friday shopping day, that kind of result should not be expected in December. Marshal Cohen of research firm NPD Group said that "while the November numbers make it look merry, some challenges lie ahead. Discounts work to some degree, but retailers still need generate excitement ... and there's still a lack of new products." Enough said? But I love this quote from Britt Beemer of the Americas Research Group: "I have to conclude that retailers don't try to understand today's consumer as they focus on Wall Street and their share value." I agree 100% from my end.

So, what will December retail holiday sales bring? A string of disappointments to add more fuel to consumer spending fears and an upcoming recession, or a mild reaction from Wall Street when the smoke clears on December 26th? If you own retail stocks now, be watching for results next week -- and you may not want to keep tabs on your portfolio at the same time unless you have a large stomach.

Target (NYSE: TGT) generally is not in the spot of releasing depressing news, but it does happen occasionally. The Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) competitor, who is flashier and trendier despite selling much of the same merchandise (but marketed much better) said this week holiday shopping began slower than it had expected, and that Q4 profits might fall "well short" of analyst expectations.

Them's fightin' words, and as such, Target shares slid about 7% on the news yesterday. Target shares, which closed above $60 Wednesday, saw a slip to below $54 yesterday and has recovered a bit to over $55 this morning. Is this the end? Of course not, but when a holier-than-thou retailer with a rosy amount of Wall Street cred announces a downfall in guidance and disappointing holiday sales (at least, at the start), things are sure to happen. And happen they did.

Although Target execs said that sales the two days after Thanksgiving met its expectations, sales during the final week of November were soft in hot holiday categories such as toys, holiday merchandise and home and apparel goods. In addition, same-store sales rose just 1.1% when adjusted for an unusual full week that existed this year after Thanksgiving. Are customers really pulling back on holiday spending this year as Target's results would seem to indicate? Outside of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping days, maybe that's the case. We won't know real details until December's conclusion, though.

This week's Cyber Monday retail event on the internet is shaping up to be the best ever, according to many retail industry watchers. Retailers Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE: CC) had heavy promotions this past Monday, along with online-only retailers Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Buy.com.

Did possible record sales come after heavy price chopping, or was the Cyber Monday sales push more customer-driven? Heavy discounting already is being looked at as the cause, and although legit, it could cause a large dip in profits to those retailers overexercising the strategy.

Now that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are over, retailers nationwide will continue the price discounting this week (and beyond) to keep those sales pouring in all the way until the end of December. Some retailers are taking the discount versus profit line this week, as 50% off is being seen at many online outlets, which is sure to cause a profit knock at the end of the day.

Is this any surprise? Not really -- loss leaders are always used to hook consumers looking for bargains into stores (and online retailer websites) where they are either ferociously upsold more expensive products or are extensively cross-sold more products than they came looking for.

It's the savvy consumer who seeks out a good bargain and leaves with just that item (or items) that retailers don't really want. But the U.S. consumer is a savvy one indeed, and the more tactics retailers use to push non-bargain products, the more consumers shrug them off.

It's been said that there are no "must have" gift products this year. These products, based on the law of supply and demand, command premium prices. When there is a lack of that kind of product, the only recourse many retailers have is to slash prices to get customers lifting up their spending. Although the holiday shopping season this year may indeed be a large one, will any companies make significant profit? Is there a goal of selling as much as possible while making very little profit in the process?