Consumer spending had its largest fall this year, thanks to the end of the "Cash for Clunkers" program. And, incomes were flat. No change to the money coming in and a drop in the cash going out translates to an impediment to economic recovery.

In September, consumer spending fell 0.5%, the first decline in five months and the worst in nine. Wages and salaries dropped 0.2%, effectively offsetting the 0.2% up-tick in August. The economy did grow in the third quarter of 2009, hinting that the worst recession in 70 years may be coming to a close, but the tough September suggests we still have some work in front of us.

For retailers, the crucial season is on its way. Blow the Christmas rush, and next year starts off on a miserable foot. Success, of course, also delivers a healthy dose of momentum -- and a little bit of wiggle room, important in what will continue to be a tough economy through at least the first half of next year. For booksellers, now contending with a new variable in the form of digital readers, e-readers will play a major role in defining the winners and losers. So far, it looks like Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is off to a great start, and it will take some genuine innovation for the competition to chip away at its market share.

Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), once the leading names in literary retail, is expected to release its own e-reader this week. It will look a bit like Amazon's Kindle, according to Reuters, but with a touch screen intended to make the reader's experience easier. The price hasn't been disclosed yet, but rumor has it that it'll be higher than the Kindle's $259. BKS is staying mum on its plans in this space. There are others in the space, as well, including IREX Technologies, which is a spinoff of Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG), Asutek (tk: tk) and a project called FirstPaper that has Hearst behind it.

Looks like the so-called "war on Christmas" has begun. Lowe's Cos. (NYSE: LOW) and PetSmart Inc. (NASDAQ: PETS) have angered the American Family Association, a prominent religious conservative group.

The home improvement retailer earned AFA's ire by calling Christmas trees "family trees" in a catalog. A Lowe's spokeswoman, speaking to the Charlotte Observer, called using the term an error that came during the "creative process." Lowe's has profusely apologized and the AFA has apparently forgiven the company. "We appreciate Lowe's for listening to its customers and responding appropriately to our concerns," AFA said on its website.

It's super Thursday, when same-store sales from many of the nation's retailers hit the Street, and the outlook for the holiday-shopping season is looking less than cheerful.

Weakness in the housing sector, high prices at the pumps, and unseasonably warm weather kept consumers' wallets on a tight leash in October. Early estimates from the International Council of Shopping Centers/UBS indicate that overall U.S. same-store sales in October rose about 2%, missing analysts' previous growth target of 2.5%. Data from Thomson Financial indicates that 18 retailers have missed expectations, while 10 have exceeded.

Ken Perkins, president of research company RetailMetrics, told The New York Times that "Overall, the sales trend continues to slow . . . I think the consumer is certainly feeling the [economic] pressure heading into the holidays."

Target Corp.'s (NYSE: TGT) is now warning the market of a slower September sales month after coming off several months of better-than-expected same-store sales. The nation's second-largest discount retailer seemed to set a scary precedent for other retailers as well, with the market thinking that a slow holiday season could set in as October approaches and the holiday shopping season begins in November.

But alas, retailers (and other companies) are known to downgrade guidance only to then beat expectations by a long shot. It's a standard tactic with many public companies, although Target's volume of housewares equipment and cheap but fashionable clothing could suffer from the housing market downturn and uncertainty about gas prices. Umm, hello? These factors have existed at the front of the line for quarters now, so why attribute possible holiday season shopping slowdowns to the most oft-mentioned causes?

On one level, it makes sense. Discretionary spending becomes tight when mounds of gift purchases are at stake, and the housing market tumble could cause skittishness in the buying public in terms of how much it spends this year for holiday gifts. This week, Target, cut its forecast for September same-store sales (sales from stores open at least a year) to 1.5% to 2.5% -- quite a drop from the previous 4% to 6%. In a sign that maybe the housing market was playing a factor, the retailer stated that sales in Florida was particularly sluggish. The state is sharing the top spot with California in terms of housing foreclosures and mortgage flops.

On Sunday morning I opened my local newspaper to see a story of how an Oregon family takes hundreds of Pacific Northwest trees to Hollywood every year, where even bad trees go for $150 but their perfect ones can fetch $400 or more. Yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, tales of Christmas trees from Vermont sold in Brooklyn for similarly outrageous prices -- most trees go for $10 to 20 a foot in New York City. The same trees in Vermont range from $20 to $55, total.

Sunday afternoon my family and I went Christmas tree shopping in our own neighborhood, in Southeast Portland, Ore. We took the wagon and found the price range at the "expensive" Boy Scout lot was $30 to $60, with a fabulously full seven-foot fir going home in the Red Flyer for $39. My four-year-old declared it "perfect" and "beautiful" at first sight and my purchase slid under the $40 quick cash I'd gotten from the ATM.

Christmas tree prices don't make the Consumer Price Index, and as far as I know they aren't tracked in anyone's livability indices. But I wonder if that's not one of those secrets of livable places: well-priced local Christmas trees. It's both a measure of economy (there's lots left over for Christmas presents and butter for those Christmas cookies in my world) and livability (I feel happy to have supported a local farmer, a Boy Scout troop, and not broken my bank in the process). It's why even the apartment building windows frame big Oregon firs in my neighborhood. It's why every Subaru we saw on the streets this weekend was bedecked by an eight-foot tree on its way home to someone's living room.

Reasonable prices on live Christmas trees help make the season bright in Burlington and in Portland. How do the Christmas tree prices affect your town?

It was what thousands of parents of whiny kids were waiting for. Out of the blue, the Tickle-Me-Elmo floodgates are open and (among others) Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) makes oodles of TMX Elmo dolls available on the company's web site. From an, umm, "hidden cache." According to Heather, a TMX Elmo searcher in my office, she finally discovered an Elmo available "suddenly" from Fisher Price. Another warehouse abruptly appear out of the fog in El Segundo? (Do they have fog in El Segundo?)


All at once, eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) listings are everywhere, 22,446 results for my search for "TMX Elmo" and not just lots of results but falling prices. When I first checked around 10:45 a.m. there were dozens of listings closing around $5 or $10 over the suggested retail price of $39.99. 20 minutes later, when I was finishing up this piece? It was more like $5 or $10 under the suggested retail price. The Spanish version was going for a ridiculously cheap $26.55. Market floodage has commenced.

When Black Friday was approaching and customers were gearing up for their long wait in line to be one of the few, the proud, the early purchasers of TMX Elmo dolls, a few less festive souls whispered of "artificial shortages" and wondered if Mattel was purposely creating a frenzy over the toys. Most parents and eBay sellers accused them of a distinct lack of holiday spirit, and oh yeah, not enough capitalism.

For busy families that have a lot of service providers to thank (house cleaners, babysitters, hairdressers, etc.), the tipping tally can easily total in the thousands of dollars. (Read SmartMoney's take on what is reasonable and expected for year-end gratuities or take AOL's tipping quiz to see if you know it all already.)

As much as you might fantasize, you can't skip the tips. If you want to keep your tipping budget to a reasonable level, you don't have to play scrooge this season. Here's some ideas for how to thank the folks who help you out year-round without busting your budget:

I remember how innocent I was, long before I was a parent. Do you remember that time? When you were young, perhaps it was the 80s, or the early 90s. You imagined bringing a baby into your home one day, certainly, it was far off in the future but the image was clear, if a bit soft-focused around the edges: all was fuzzy, wuzzy, warm, soft, and gentle. If you imagined your home with a kitchen, in fact, the knives were all tucked safely away in a hand-oiled maple block somewhere, way, way back on the counter.

[Big sound of brakes squeaking, wheels skidding, cars smashing into walls, screams...]

And then, I became a parent in the new millennium. And my world was filled with the most fearsome, warlike cutting implements. Industrial-strength scissors that came apart at the hinge so you could sharpen them daily. Hunting knives with a whetting stone, glistening next to the sink (where I keep my gentle organic hand soap). A typical day in my first child's infancy might find my knuckles raw, my fingers calloused, battle wounds all over my fingers.

I'd been faced with my children's toy packaging.

I remember the first time I tasted a gingerbread latte. It was the winter of 2000, and Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) had just opened a new outlet a block away from my suburban condo. I hated the suburbs! But I loved those gingerbread lattes, they made me feel like home for the holidays. And let's face it: ginger and spice are delicious. I could eat them year-round.

But, alas, in January the gingerbread latte disappeared, preceded by the eggnog latte and closely followed by the peppermint mocha. Every season we await their return, their appearance on the specials board a better harbinger of the season than the weather, or the opening of the "Christmas" display at your local grocery store. And every season we mourn their passing.

While I'm not about to suggest Starbucks move the eggnog latte to its permanent menu, serving it alongside tangerine Frappuccinos this summer, I think the company would receive dividends in customer goodwill and extra sales if it extended the holiday beverage season through at least March. Let's put it this way: I love the peppermint mochas so much I'll go to Starbucks to buy them, even though I like the service and the coffee at my neighborhood alternative indy coffee shop better.

And I still love them in March. Surprisingly enough, my tastes don't change between December 26th and February 15th! And I'm not the only one. According to Starbucks Drinks Simplified, the eggnog latte is so popular "People start asking about it in September, but on average these aren't sold until mid-November sometime."

Oprah, Oprah, Oprah. We've always relied on you as the doyenne of spendy gifts, the queen of conspicious consumption. It was you, every year, who announced your "favorites" with much fanfare and fabulous giveaways to your adoring audience (and who wouldn't adore you, with your sponsorship-fueled generosity?).

But this year, you've betrayed the capitalist in us all. You've really gone and done it this time. You've told us to give to charities, not buy things. Huh?

Oh, sure, I'm all for philathropy. But I don't expect this of Oprah. Consumers everywhere are relying on her for her wisdom in selecting the must-have gifts for the holiday. Small, artsy and luxe companies rely on her (or fear her, as the case may be) to send stacks and gigabytes of orders their way, with a "must-deliver" date of December 24th.

Not this year. This year, you're supposed to use your spare cash (and the $1000 debit card, if you were in her audience during the October taping of Oprah's "Pay it Forward" show) to do good works.

I'm all for charity, but I don't see it as a replacement for giving things. I may sometimes interpret the "things" in a different way than Oprah ever did, choosing to give hand-made gifts, books, photographs, scores from the thrift stores, and other slightly less conspicuous examples of consumption. But holiday shopping is inviolate ... I'll wait 'til December 30th or so and then get into the selflessly charitable spirit. Will you follow Oprah's lead, or stick with the pretty-and-tangible things this holiday season?

Looking for toy and game bargains come this Friday, aka Black Friday? You've got it with some of the below choices, with many popular toys -- and even some games -- selling for less than $20 this Friday (and most likely Saturday as well). With the recent launch of the Sony Playstation 3 and the Nintendo Wii gaming consoles, console specials and associated games probably won't be featured heavily (if at all) in Black Friday deals with the launches having happened so recently. So, for less-expensive tastes, how about the below goodies:

Wal-Mart
Candyland Dora the Explorer Edition -- $9
Bratz sleepover doll -- $10
Disney princess director's chair -- $10
Playstation 2 three-game pack assortment -- $10
Cabbage Patch Kids Snuggle Beans assortment -- $10
Hot Wheels 20-car assortment -- $10

Target
Bratz doll -- $10
Cabbage Patch Kids cry and drink baby dolls -- $15
Bratz Babyz bride and groom set -- $15
Barbie mini-kingdom carriage and dolls -- $15
Star Wars transformer -- $15
Yahtzee turbo board game -- $15

Toys R Us
Dave Mirra freestyle BMX (Playstation 2) -- $5
Monster House DVD -- $8
Trivial Pursuit Star Wars Saga edition -- $10
Crayola super coloring kit -- $10
Leapfrog Books rainbow fish book -- $10
Magnetix 100-piece tube game set -- $15

Got gaming on your list? Target will be selling the Nintendo DS Lite for $129.99. Currently, it is listed for $224.99. There will definitely be more high-tech toy specials going round the ads this Friday, so keep your eagle eye out like I know you will. One word -- leave the kids at home with the significant other or a family member for this shopping experience (that goes without saying).

Looking for the perfect gift for the husband, dad, or grown son on your list? My advice: Skip the clothing racks and go straight for the hardware aisles. Another tie, sweater or pair of pajamas reeks of domesticity, comfort and a kind of quiet fading into the sunset. Instead, set his pulse to racing with a gift that shows you think he's a real man, a take-charge kind of guy, king of his castle and all that.

Some high-quality tools should do the trick. And, at these prices -- a leaked Sears circular indicates half-off sales for Craftsman tools -- quality tools are a great investment. How about a new socket wrench set, grip sander or miter saw? BFads.com is showing that you can purchase a DeWalt Heavy Duty Grip Sander for $29.99 with rebate at Ace Hardware.

The trick is to get tools that are so cool that he'll be happy to have them even if he never plans on using them. No home should be without a really nice cordless electric drill, for example. Shop at Big Lots on Black Friday and you can pick up a Stanley 150-piece "Fast Change Drill and Drive System" for $39 (listed on Gotta Deal's Black Friday site). Think of that: You get to give to give speed, drilling and driving -- all in one box!

The Wall Street Journal had a story [subscription required] a month or so ago in which readers complained about the ubiquity of digital cameras, reporting that at weddings, so many of the guests were snapping photos that there were no pictures of people enjoying themselves -- only meta-photos of other cameras. I'm certainly the worst kind of offender; my mom's been known to tell me that it still happened even if I didn't get a picture of it! (My answer: no it didn't!)

Is there a technology backlash? Are consumers deciding to forego the digitalization of every minute of their lives and just frickin' enjoy them for a minute? Ummm, nope. If the leaked sales for Black Friday are any indication, come New Year's Eve, there will be ever more amateurs making high-resolution memories of that New Year's kiss.

I remember it used to be $100 per megapixel, but now you can get massive resolution for a miniature price. But how many megapixels do you (and your gift-ees) need? And can you really get a good 6MP camera for $99? Here are some of the sales we've found for this Friday:

Sears
Polaroid i630 6MP Digital Camera $99
Kodak EasyShare 6.1MP Digital Camera and Printer Dock $329.99
Kodak EasyShare 7.1MP Digital Camera with Printer Dock $244.00 Doorbuster Sale

Wal-Mart
Casio Elixim EX-Z60 Digital Camera $199.88
Kodak Z612 Digital Camera $329.76
Kodak EasyShare C633 Digital Camera and Printer Dock $189.74 Doorbuster Sale

Best Buy
Canon PowerShot 6MP Digital ELPH Camera $219.99
Kodak 5MP Digital Camera $79.99 Doorbuster Sale
Nikon Coolpix 5.1MP Digital Camera $119.99

Why not start small when you're shopping for your holiday gifts? No, not small in storage capacity or features. Just in size and price. To misquote an old adage, storage capacity will double in amount as it halves in price, and it's never seemed more true than in reviewing the leaked ads for this Black Friday. Who has the best deals on tiny and useful peripherals this weekend? According to our sources at BlackFridayAds.com, these are a few of the highlights:

Storage
Polaroid 2GB Secure Digital Memory Card, $29.99 at Circuit City
PNY Attaché 1GB USB 2.0 Flash Drive, $14.99 at Best Buy
PNY 1GB Secure Digital Memory Card, $14.99 at Best Buy
SanDisk 2GB SD Memory Card, $29.99 at Best Buy

Peripherals
HP Deskjet 3940 Color Inkjet, $24.99 at Circuit City
Linksys Wireless-N Wireless Router With 4-Port Switch, $129.99 at Best Buy
Motorola Bluetooth Headset, $14.99 at Best Buy