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FeedPosted May 13th 2010 12:40PM by Jeff Reeves (RSS feed)
Filed under: Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Housing, Recession
Whether you want to believe it or not, more indicators pop up each week that point to improvements in the housing market. Either we're at the bottom now, or we will be soon.
Of course, I just bought my first ever home in September of 2009 (a short-sale in Montgomery County, Md.) so perhaps I'm biased. But even in the worst markets there are signs of life in housing that should encourage investors and homebuyers alike.
Here are three top signs that the housing market has bottomed out.
Continue reading Three Signs Housing Has Bottomed
Posted Apr 12th 2010 12:10PM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic Data, Recession
According to an Associated Press survey of leading economists, jobs and home values will stay unstable into 2011. The survey indicates that the recovery is going to continue trudging along through the year, which should prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero. Three-fourths of the economists surveyed believe that the interest rates will stay low until the final quarter of 2010.
Other highlights from the survey (if you can call them highlights) include the belief that the unemployment rate will stay "stubbornly high" during the next two years. The group believes that the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3% by the end of this year and will drop to 8.4% at the end of 2011.
Continue reading Survey: Economic Recovery to Drag Through 2011
Posted Mar 26th 2008 5:45PM by Zack Miller (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal Finance, Housing, Recession
I grew up in Miami. Yes, I was born and raised there and am under 40-years-old. One of the few. I love the city. I love the people. I love the Latin flavor of the town, its food and nightlife. I also enjoyed owning and selling a home there in the early 2000s.
Things are different now. Homeowners have been hit with the downside of a strong housing market and have seen prices snapback much greater than some other parts of the country. After seeing a pullback in net worth, Floridians have been tightening their belts this year in some creative and not-so-creative ways.
Today's Bloomberg has an article about how the
changes in the Florida housing market are being dealt with by Dolphins fans. Floridians, and Miami residents in particular, are dining out less, seeing fewer movies, foregoing on travel plans, and in some extreme cases, drinking less expensive beer.
According to Bloomberg, Miami real estate prices fell 19.3% year-over-year in January, tied with Las Vegas for the largest drop among 20 metro areas. Some homeowners feeling the pinch are no longer drinking Guinness and Royal Extra beers, but instead buy something domestic and cheaper.
This change in net worth is real and is affecting consumption decisions. While it hurts everyone involved, the process of (trying!) to realign the split between assets and debts is ultimately a healthy one for our country and something, I believe, will help strengthen the U.S. dollar and regain respect for American ingenuity, strength and democratic values around the globe.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com ,a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund, and a proud former Floridian.Posted Dec 1st 2007 9:10AM by Zac Bissonnette (RSS feed)
Filed under: Personal Finance
Charging the rent to your credit card sounds insane -- it seems like it would be the eighth deadly sin, tied with going to a payday lender to get gambling money.
But as the New York Times points out, the strategy can be great if you're in good financial shape: If you pay off the balance each month you pay no interest, and you can rack up rewards on your credit card -- possibly round-trip airfare anywhere in the country each year if you have high rent!
But there are some pitfalls: Because of the way FICO scores are calculated, drawing down a large percentage of your available credit, even if you pay it off each month, can hurt your score. So if paying your rent by credit would leave you with little additional credit available, it might be a bad idea -- something that you cost you thousands on your mortgage when you do buy your own home.
The Times also points out, somewhat obviously, that if you can't afford to pay off your rent in cash each month, you shouldn't put it on your card. But if you can't afford to pay your rent out of your monthly income, that's a whole other problem...
Posted Nov 27th 2007 5:45PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newell Rubbermaid (NWL), Stocks to Buy
A choppy, indecisive market requires a defensive play or two as a safety net, and a defensive stock worthy of consideration is
Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE:
NWL).
Newell Rubbermaid doesn't strictly fit the definition of a defensive stock, but its signature product, combined with its overall diversity in the consumer product space, make the stock a worthy consideration.
Newell Rubbermaid's signature product is the food storage container. At first glance, one could argue that U.S. shoppers will buy fewer of these containers as the U.S. economy slows, as it is, strictly speaking, a discretionary purchase. Still, we know from previous belt-tightening periods Americans tend to cut back on dining out. Undoubtedly that means more home prepared meals, and leftovers, which need containers -- a positive trend for Rubbermaid.
Continue reading For Newell Rubbermaid, it's a sealed deal
Posted Aug 18th 2007 12:40PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Lowe's Cos (LOW), Options
Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) implied volatility of 38 above 26-week average of 33 into EPS. LOW is expected to report EPS of .61 cents on 8/20, according to Thomson First Call. Deutsche Bank said on 8/16, "while we are slightly reducing our 2Q and FY EPS on a weak environment, we note that consensus already reflects conservative sales and EPS views." LOW September option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY) September implied volatility Elevated at 61 into EPS. PBY, an operator of automotive retail and service chains, has a market cap of $784 million. PBY is expected to report EPS on 8/22. Morgan Joseph CO says, "update on potential sale/leaseback of property possible. During its last conference call, PBY confirmed a 2004 appraisal that valued its owned property as around $900 million and belief that today it is worth in excess of $1 billion." PBY September option implied volatility of 61 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.
Daily options update is provided by stock specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Jul 31st 2007 4:10PM by Paul Foster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Options

MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) put volume & volatility elevated as credit liquidity tightens. MBI, a provider of financial guarantee insurance, is recently down $2.32 to $57.29. MBI call option volume of 6,883 contracts compares to put volume of 11,323 contracts. MBI August option implied volatility of 65l September is at 48, above its 26-week average of 31, according to Track Data, suggesting hedging for downside risk.
AMBAC Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK) put volume & volatility elevated as credit liquidity tightens. ABK provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to both public and private sector clients. ABK is recently down $5.49 to $67.64. ABK call option volume of 2,337 contracts compares to put volume of 4,829 contracts. ABK August option implied volatility is at 53; September is at 49, above its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting hedging for downside risk.
Rait Financial Trust (NYSE: RAS) put volume heavy; volatility spikes to 210 as RAS down 25%. RAS originates secured and unsecured debt instruments for private & corporate owners of real estate. RAS is recently down $3.94 to $12.10. MDLD says "downgrading to Hold; waiting out AHM issues." RAS call option volume of 4,638 contracts compares to put volume of 7,917 contracts. RAS August option implied volatility of 210 is above its 19-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting hedging downside move.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Posted Jun 29th 2007 1:10PM by Michael Fowlkes (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Industry, Consumer Experience, KB HOME (KBH), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Housing

Over the past few months I have written a lot about the housing market, and almost all of what I have written has been negative, so when i ran across an article today discussing
some markets where prices are thriving I felt it only fair to discuss.
According to a report from
CNNMoney.com there are 11 metro areas that have enjoyed double digit growth in home values over the past twelve months. Just goes to show that the old saying is still true... when it comes to real estate, its all about location, location, location.
So why exactly are there some parts of the country where prices are still going through massive increases while other sections of the nation have seen dramatic drops in prices? There are a couple factors at play according to the report:
- Strong job market
- Solid population growth
- Areas that never went through the massive boom earlier in the decade that sent prices sky high in most of the nation
Continue reading The most important factor in real estate? Location, location, location!
Posted May 1st 2007 1:49PM by Eric Buscemi (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic Data
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A 25% price decline in home prices is still required to revert back to the mean, according to Tom McManus, chief investment strategist at B of A. McManus said in a conference call yesterday that when compared to rents and household income, a considerable adjustment in home prices is still required, even after the recent price weakness.
If that drop were to occur quickly, it could be very disruptive to the overall economy, but the more likely scenario is for the adjustment between home prices and their affordability to occur over a five-year period.
What was also scary was the relationship between housing prices and investors' buying momentum. Investors sentiment appears to be super high for these stocks despite the poor performance for this group. This compares with energy where the group has performed well, but investor sentiment remains very low. A bullish sign for energy, not for housing.
McManus's point: no need to bottom fish in housing yet.
Posted Apr 26th 2007 7:00PM by Gary Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Law, Rants and Raves
A New Hampshire couple have taken refuge in their home as an income tax 'protest.' After reading Zac Bissonnette's take, I just couldn't leave this story alone. Here's my response:
Dear Mr. and Mrs. Anarchy,
Pardon me for interrupting your solitude but it appears to me that you may have made a grave error. I'm expecting that you'll be able to read this unless your Internet connection has been severed from the federally protected communication streams. At this time I must ask you if you have ever read the American Constitution. Unless I'm mistaken, Congress empowered the government to collect income tax quite some time ago.
I'm hoping that you have surrendered your vehicles by now. Being that you have no use for federally subsidized roads, I suspect that you plan to walk for the rest of your lives. Please be sure that you take your gas masks along on your walks because the EPA has indicated that it is no longer willing to assure that you have clean air to breathe. When you get home from walking you may wish to consider twice if you'll have a drink of water due to the fact that you have implied that safe water standards no longer apply to you. The government of the United States shall honor your desire to be unprotected in the matters of breathing and hydration.
In advance of your starvation, I'd like to thank you for surrendering all the food you have, with the exception of those things which are not USDA inspected. I apologize that you have little left to eat but the USDA has indicated that it is no longer interested in protecting your digestion. Additionally, every inspector of every product at every port, air terminal and border crossing has made it clear that they will no longer work for you. It is a shame that you shall soon be naked, diseased and starved to death but all federal services rendered in your name have been suspended as you requested.
Please inform us as soon as possible where it is that you shall be moving to. We, as a nation have no desire to force you to remain within our borders. It is possible that some territory remains near the Arctic Circle where you may reside untaxed for the remainder of your lives. We suggest that you go there as soon as possible. Please do be careful as you walk naked, hungry and without personal security. We would hate for some nasty international criminal to make prey of you. Rest assured that there is a large pool of payroll tax paying individuals who will be more than happy to cast lots for your home. Now, please make a hasty exit you deadbeats. We honestly don't want to keep you here.
Best Regards,
Gary E. Sattler
Posted Apr 18th 2007 12:23PM by Gary Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Blogs, China
Rice protein has joined wheat glutton on the list of tainted pet food ingredients imported from China, according to USA Today.
Natural Balance Pet Foods is recalling some products after it found melamine, an industrial chemical, in some of its food that it suspects was in a rice protein concentrate, the paper said, adding that's the same chemical that lead to the massive recall by Menu Foods.
At this point in the game I personally have nearly lost all faith in the pet food industry to protect the health of its furry consumers. I'm also wondering if former Pres. Bill Clinton is fondly recalling the memories of all those USDA inspectors which he pink slipped. It's coming back to bite Bill now ain't it... I told you so...
I have not discontinued feeding my cats their usual commercial food. It's not that I don't love the little furballs, but changing their diet the way I'd like to would involve a small increase in our grocery budget which I choose not to bear. If the kitties were showing signs of digestive troubles or exhibiting any other symptoms, I'd surely contact our veterinarian and change their food immediately.
If I was to change my cats' diet, I would feed them human-grade salmon, tuna, shrimp, liver, beef, grains, oils and greens. Each meal would be a blend of two of the meat ingredients plus some grains and greens blended to a consistency similar to the commercial canned cat food. Wheat grass works well as a green ingredient and can be grown on your windowsill easily. As a matter of fact, it's not a bad idea to keep a pan of wheat grass growing at all times for your kitty. They love to chew it up and it often helps them to expel those nasty hairballs. Most local pet stores sell wheat grass seeds.
Continue reading Pet food recalls becoming downright confusing
Posted Jan 14th 2007 4:49PM by Gary Sattler (RSS feed)
Filed under: Good news, Bad News, Press Releases, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Home Depot (HD)
The Consumer Products Safety Commission has levied a fine which may bode well for The Home Depot, Inc.'s (NYSE:HD) sales of Charmglow grills this coming summer. It has been reported that Nexgrill Industries has agreed to settle a claim that they allegedly failed to inform officials of a potentially dangerous gas grill defect in a timely manner. The CPSC has provisionally accepted Nexgrills agreement to pay a $300,000 fine in the matter.
Nexgrill had received reports of gas grill fires, including reports of minor injuries, and allegedly failed to report the possible defect to the CPSC for 10 months. The news release states that Nexgrill had sufficient reason to believe they were dealing with a product defect. Finally, in June of 2006, Nexgrill did announce a recall of about 16,000 of the potentially offending grills. The possible defect exists in the placement of a fuel hose which may be situated too close to the heat source and thereby may potentially separate from the burner unit and create a fire hazard.
Nexgrill has made available a retrofit heat shield which eliminates the potential hazard. You may contact them regarding this corrective measure at this web address: http://nexgrill0025.serorder.com/. With this now behind them, both companies have the coming summer to look forward to.
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