Mortgage applications fell almost 25% last week with new loan applications for home purchases hitting an eight-year low, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. People continue to sit on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop. Who wants to buy a home today if the price for that home might be lower soon after the deal closes?

Adding to that wait-and-see attitude are some major incentives that could be part of the stimulus package making its way through Congress. The biggest incentive of them all is a Senate provision that would give all home buyers a $15,000 tax credit. Who wouldn't wait to see if that provision survives the House/Senate negotiations?

The epicenter of everything -- the credit crisis, financial crisis, economic crisis and crisis of confidence -- is housing.

Not just bad mortgages, but a continuing fall in housing prices -- already down 20% with another 15%-20% to go.

Yup, it is not close to being over. Home sales continue to fall, inventories are equal to more than a year of sales, and the vast majority of new mortgages being applied for as interest rates fall are for refinancings.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

Meanwhile, falling oil prices are pushing down stocks in Europe even though the U.K. economy posted its worst third quarter since 1990. Markets in Asia fell amid investors' concerns about interest rate cuts in China and Toyota Motor Corp.'s (NYSE: TM) first quarterly loss in 70 years. Bloomberg News is reporting that Toyota is considering cutting its North American payroll.c

In the U.S., all eyes will be on the housing market. Investors will be looking for some reason to be optimistic. That may be tough. According to the Wall Street Journal, record-low interest rates is spurring a wave of refinancing and not home purchases. Home resales appeared to stabilize in the fall but that was because of record levels of foreclosures.

"Ivy Zelman, chief executive of housing-research firm Zelman & Associates, estimates that, even with such a low rate, only about 67% of U.S. households can afford a house," the paper said. "Home ownership was nearly 68% in the third quarter, according to the Census Bureau, implying there is virtually no untapped demand for homes."

Santa's nice list may be small this year.

The areas of the country that saw the best jump in July were the same ones that have been beaten up the most over the past year, including California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona.

The credit crisis over the past year has already claimed a couple big name companies, and prompted the Bush administration to suggest a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry.

But what does this really mean?

Chances are, if you follow the economy at all, there are two things on your mind, oil and housing. Despite a couple days in a row of oil selling off, it seems like high oil prices are here to stay for a while. And housing continues to remain weak, with signs pointing to more weakness in the months to come.

I am sure you are as sick of hearing about homes sales as I am, but unfortunately it is something we have to look think about, and today we get more bad news, as the National Association of Realtors announced that May was yet another tough month for pending home sales. In fact, with a reported 4.7% drop in pending home sales, May was the third lowest month on record, a sign that tough times are still here, and probably going to be sticking around for a while longer.

First, let's get a better idea of what exactly we are talking about here. What are pending home sales? Simply put, a home sale is pending when there has been an offer made and accepted, but the deal has not yet closed. The lag between the acceptance and the closing is typically one to two months. The index to track this was started back in 2001, so to get to a 100 rating, you would have to have the average level of sales activity that we were seeing back in 2001.

With oil at $135 a barrel - up 463% since January 2001, Washington wrings its hands and says there's nothing it can do to lower the price. I think that's nonsense. There are two things that Washington can do today to get the price down: raise interest rates and close the swaps loophole.

What is the role of speculators in the price of oil and other commodities and what should be done to get those prices down? Some argue that oil prices are set by supply and demand. But if that were true, oil would drop because global demand is forecast to grow 1.2 million bbl/day -- and demand in the U.S. is down 300,000 barrels a day -- while global supply is expected to rise 2 million bbl/day.

Perhaps sixty percent of trading volume in oil is due to speculators -- these traders bet on a declining dollar and a rising price of oil. Raising interest rates would help lower the value of the dollar which has lost 70% of its value relative to the Euro since January 2001. Our Fed Funds rate fell from 5.25% to 2% since last August whereas in Europe, their rate is 4% and expected to rise. This difference makes Euros a more attractive currency for investors. So if the U.S. raises interest rates, people will start to buy dollars instead.