TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the relief rally should last at least a day.
There's some genuine good news out there. First, the worst-acting groups and countries from yesterday -- the insurers and Hong Kong -- got some good news. The insurers are participating in the federal bailout, something that is needed to protect the value of annuities that are hopelessly underwater; and Hong Kong rallied more than it fell, which seems like total manipulation to me, but who the heck cares if you are a bull.
Second, the Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take) strike might end soon, and just in time for a lot of quarters, something that a United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take) and a Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) need to have happen to save their quarters. Those two fine stocks are an easy trade off this news but will presumably open up huge because of the ridiculous futures action.
As per usual, the hedge funds that most need this lift to get in shape won't take it. They can't afford to leave the market because it is their only way to get the performance back that they need so badly to keep some of the money under management.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) closed at $20.35 Tuesday. GE November option implied volatility of 52 is above its 26-week average of 32 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Siemens (NYSE: SI) closed at $63.97 Tuesday. SI November option implied volatility of 86 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) closed at $18.71 Tuesday. PHG November option implied volatility of 68 is above its 26-week average of 43.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) closed at $50.95 Tuesday. UTX November option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 33.
Hitachi Ltd (NYSE: HIT) closed at $51.63 Tuesday. HIT November option implied volatility of 71 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data.
Honeywell (NYSE: HON) closed at $28.85 Tuesday. HON November option implied volatility of 66 is above its 26-week average of 37.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
The earnings crunch begins in earnest this coming week, with companies from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) to Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) and Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) scheduled to report results for the quarter just ended. But with the ongoing turmoil in the markets, much attention is on the tech and financial sectors. This week will provide plenty to mull over on both counts.
Wall Street expectations for tech stocks are fairly optimistic. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for chip maker Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR) and software/service company iGate Corp. (NASDAQ: IGTE) to be the sector's biggest earnings gainers of the week. Altera is expected to report earnings of 30 cents per share (up 33.3% from a year ago) on revenue of $355.1 million. Altera had previously forecast flat sales for the quarter, and shares fell to a 52-week low last week. iGate is expected to report earnings of 14 cents per share (up 42.9%) on revenue of $55.6 million. India-based iGate recently spun off its Mastech consulting services. Shares are down 45.0% in the past three months, and also reached a new 52-week low last week.
San Jose-based Novellus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: NVLS), on the other hand, is expected to report that net income tumbled 90.4% from a year ago to 4 cents per share, on revenue of $245.6 million. Novellus fell to a 52-week low early last week, and shares are down 44.5% year to date.
The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.
The air pollution in Beijing is so bad that even reducing automobile traffic by 50% has not helped much. China is now considering a 90% reduction according to news reports. Athletes are staying in other countries until the games begin so that they may train somewhere they can breathe. There are also reports that many athletes involved in stamina events will be forced to wear masks to protect themselves from the particulates in the air.
Now Reuters is reporting that "Some International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday."
So the world media will not be able to do their jobs in a manner they are accustomed to. But who are we actually referring to? Western media, of course, because half the world still limits access to information to some degree.
U.S. stock futures are higher Wednesday morning, a day after markets rallied around 2.4% due to declining oil prices. But today, ADP monthly employment data will be released, as well as weekly oil inventories data. Investors will digest the numbers and the slew of earnings due for release.
Already reported this morning (to name a few):
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) said its second-quarter profit rose 8% as cable TV rates rose and consumers ordered more digital and premium services. While the results fell short of Wall Street's forecast, CMCSA shares are trading mildly higher.
Arcelor Mittal (NYSE: MT) said its second-quarter profit more than doubled due to increased production and higher steel prices. It also gave an upbeat outlook for third quarter. The company outperformed consensus by about 20% at the revenue. MT shares, which have already close 7% higher Tuesday, are trading up another 6% in premarket action.
Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) shares are crashing, trading 11% lower in premarket action after the company reported quarterly profit that was above market estimates, but revenue missed expectations and 2008 outlook was cut due to macroeconomic conditions and high fuel prices that have already impacted growth.
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) shares are over 1.7% lower in premarket trading after reporting a second-quarter loss as declining spending by smaller businesses and retail customers hurt sales.
Siemens (NYSE: SI) reported that "third quarter net profit fell 31% due to a one-time gain a year earlier, but order intake and revenue rose, beating expectations and showing the industrial conglomerate's resilience so far to the economic downturn." SI shares are 3.9% higher in premarket trading.
Corning (NYSE: GLW) shares are down over 2% in premarket trading after reporting inline earnings per share, but revenue slightly below estimates.
IAC/InterActive (NASDAQ: IACI) said it swung to a second-quarter loss, hurt by a $300 million charge in its Cornerstone Brands business. Adjusted earnings were 35 cents per share as revenue rose 7% to $1.6 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected profit of 31 cents per share on $1.6 billion in sales.
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) stock is down 6.6% in premarket trading after the company posted its seventh consecutive quarterly loss of $1.19 billion, or $1.96 per share, missing Wall Street estimates. The operating loss would have been 60 cents a share, heftier than the loss of 52 cents a share from analysts polled by Reuters Estimates. Following the report, AMD also announced that CEO Hector Ruiz would be replaced by COO Dirk Meyer. Ruiz will stay on as executive chairman.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) is considering raising capital by selling as much as $10 billion in new shares to investors. FRE stock is down again this morning after the recent wild swings in share price. This morning FRE shares are trading over 5.7% lower in premarket action.
Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) shares rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading following second-quarter financial results. The toy maker's profit fell by nearly half, but results still beat Wall Street expectations. Global Barbie sales dropped off 6%.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) kicking things off last week, here's a look at what Wall Street is expecting from many of the companies scheduled to report this coming week.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE): $1.80 EPS (36.6%) on sales of $6.4 billion (+53.0%)
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): $4.74 EPS (24.9%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+41.6%)
Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK): 56 cents EPS (23.2%) on sales of $19.9 billion (+17.8%)
CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX): 90 cents EPS (21.1%) on sales of $2.9 billion (+12.8%)
Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR): 27 cents EPS (18.5%) on sales of $346.7 million (+8.4%)
IBM (NYSE: IBM): $1.82 EPS (+17.6%) on sales of $25.9 billion (+9.0%)
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): 41 cents EPS (17.1%) on sales of $2.2 billion (+18.0%)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says recent downgrades are killing whole industries, and they're coming at a terrible time.
You can't lose autos and aerospace. Yet that's what's happening. The devastating aerospace downgrade by Goldman yesterday had pin action galore, wrecking everything from United Tech (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take) and Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take) to BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) (Cramer's Take). It took the whole frame down with it and made everything toxic. And it happens at a terrible time. It isn't like Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take), which with a few days left in the quarter can come out defending itself. Goldman rolled a perfect strike.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Honeywell is worth a review.
Honeywell (NYSE: HON) is one of the world's leading automation / control manufacturers for heating, air conditioning, ventilation systems and a key aerospace contractor. Further, Honeywell has the diversity Wall Street likes -- in this case, business diversity within a company.
Thermostats and aircraft maintenance would seem like business lines at opposite ends of the spectrum, but they are at Honeywell's core, and they speak to the company's strength.
Analysts like HON's aerospace division (36% of revenue), which manufactures cockpit controls, power generation equipment and wheels/bakes for commercial/military aircraft. The division also makes jet engines for regional/business jet manufacturers.
According to this article at CNBC, industrial manufacturer Honeywell (NYSE: HON) doesn't see the current recession (or slowdown, if you believe recession is too harsh a term) hurting its plans all that much. Shareholders of the company should certainly rejoice at management's assertion that the company will still be able to deliver somewhere between $3.70 and $3.80 in earnings per share for 2008.
Reaffirmation is always a good thing in a market as tempestuous as this one has been. The question is, when you see a news item such as this, what actionable inference can you take from it? In other words, should you be looking at Honeywell? Investors should indeed perform some due diligence on the company, because based on the current price of the stock, Honeywell isn't overly pricey. Plus, the stock is really close to a 52-week high. I'm not the biggest fan of buying at 52-week highs, but for those who believe in trading via chart science, a stock near the top end of a range is oftentimes attractive since, in theory, a majority of the weak holders will be out of it by that point.
But being patient for a pullback is usually a virtue with any strong stock. And here's something else to consider. Competitor United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), which has a similar dividend yield to Honeywell, is further away from its 52-week high, but well off its 52-week low. Does that make UTX more attractive? Possibly. And Goodrich Corp. (NYSE: GR), while not having as high a dividend yield, is also not at a 52-week high. So while the reaffirmation bodes well for Honeywell, definitely kick the company's financial tires a bit before making any decision, and look around to similar companies that you might think are better values.
Disclosure: I don't own shares in any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's some reason for caution, but no reason to get out of the market here.
There all right there. Don't you feel it? Hundreds of stocks at resistance. Hundreds have formed a nice base. The Transports and the Dow are moving in synch. The earnings period surprisingly great, with so many companies not stung by the raw costs. Three straight up weeks, with all the commodity stocks showing signs of rolling over; most at crucial "must hold" levels except for gold, which has already crashed, making the inflation case much dimmer in the eyes of the traders.
Yet, you simply can't read the papers. They are too awful. The cost to the consumers for everything from food to gasoline is humongous and going higher, according to all the food execs I had on last week. We are getting nowhere near a bottom in housing. The layoffs, while not significant in the Labor Report on Friday, sure seem endless. The two major presidential candidates from the Democratic side want to tax the oil companies into oblivion, the leaders of the last year. Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) blew the quarter. So did GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take).
Too far, too fast, based on those grim items.
To me, this is the first week since the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) bottom that I think seems aimless.
But perhaps there's a "split the difference" way to approach this week: options expiration.
U.S. futures are up this morning despite news of another bad quarter from Citigroup (NYSE: C). The financial services giant this morning reported a Q1 loss of $5 billion, or $1.02 per share, following $12 billion in write-downs on mortgage-related securities and leveraged buyout loans. Analysts had expected better figures but the market apparently took heart that they weren't worse.
There were some good earnings reports for the bulls this morning. Dow 30 component Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) earned $1.45 per share on revenues of $11.8 billion in the first quarter, beating estimates of $1.33, and projected strong full-year revenues and earnings. The company did foresee continuing weakness in the U.S. economy but remains somewhat upbeat on prospects for the global economy.
Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) said its Q1 earnings rose more than 22% on strong demand from the aviation and commercial construction sectors. Honeywell earned $643 million, or 85 cents per diluted share, compared with $526 million, or 66 cents a share, a year ago. Xerox is also due to report before the markets open.
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported a 30% increase in Q1 profit after the close Thursday, beating expectations by more than 30 cents a share. Its revenues were up 42%, to $5.19 billion, over the same period last year. Google's shares soared 17% in an after-hours "relief rally."
Thursday markets were flat on a day of mixed earnings reports, with Merrill Lynch disappointing, but IBM beating estimates. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.22 points or 0.01%; the S&P 500 was up 0.85 point or 0.06%; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 8.28 points or 0.35%.
AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR)'s American Airlines cancelled 500 flights on Tuesday and is expected to cancel more flights Wednesday as the FAA inspects its MD-80 planes and if the airlines complies with federal rules about wiring on about 300 of its planes. MAR shares were down 2.3% in after-hours trading.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) may announce a 14- to 18-month delay of its already-delayed 787 Dreamliner according to the The Times of London, the AP reported. Seattle Post-Intelligencer puts the delay at 14 months from the original goal of first flight by the end of June, and first delivery in early 2009. Either way, the delays are much more than the 6-9 months analysts and buyers said they expected. BA shares were down 2.4% in very early premarket trading.
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) is keeping busy. After announcing it is splitting its handset and telecom equipment arms, and after settling a proxy battle with activist investor Carl Icahn, the cell phone maker on Wednesday said former AT&T Chairman and CEO David Dorman will be the non-executive chairman. He'll succeed Ed Zander, who as planned is retiring after the shareholder meeting on May 5.
General Electric
The earnings crunch begins in earnest this coming week, with companies from 
The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.
U.S. stock futures are higher Wednesday morning, a day after markets rallied around 2.4% due to declining oil prices. But today, ADP monthly employment data will be released, as well as weekly oil inventories data. Investors will digest the numbers and the slew of earnings due for release.
As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from 
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