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Consumer Confidence Hits Three-Month Low

consumer confidenceConsumer confidence fell more than expected during the month of March, hitting a new three-month low as high gasoline prices weigh on the minds on consumers.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index read 74 during February, but dipped in March all the way down to 63.4. Going into today's reading, analysts had been expecting to see the consumer confidence index decline, but only to 65.

Continue reading Consumer Confidence Hits Three-Month Low

Home Depot's Profit Rises 21%, Beating Estimates

Home Depot (HD) logoHome Depot's (HD) third-quarter earnings came in 21% higher than the same period last year, beating analysts' estimates. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, the company reported a profit of $834 million or 61 cents a share, up from $689 million or 44 cents a share last year. Revenue rose 1.4% to $16.6 billion. Same-store sales increased 1.4% These results mark the fourth straight gain after three years of decline.

Chairman and Chief Executive Frank Blake said: "As the business stabilizes, we continue to improve our operational performance ... We are exercising good control over our expenses."

Continue reading Home Depot's Profit Rises 21%, Beating Estimates

Chasing Value: "Home Prices Are About to Bottom"

"Home Prices Are About to Bottom" was the headline for the Barron's cover story the week of July 14, 2008. The story explained that the housing market should level off in many areas of the country by the end of the year.

I have made some equally unfortunate prognostications in my tenure at BloggingStocks, so my purpose is not to poke fun at Barron's but to point out that here we are, over two years later, and it is still debatable whether the housing market has bottomed out.

Continue reading Chasing Value: "Home Prices Are About to Bottom"

Hopes for Housing -- Squashed

Last spring, many believed that not only was the housing collapse over but that a robust rebound was underway. Investors were crowding into foreclosed house sales and bidding up prices in California, often the bellwether state for new trends. The tax credit of up to $8,000 for new homebuyers that expired in April spurred buyers and promised to kick-start housing activity nationwide.

The Home Affordable Modification Program was trumpeted by the Administration to help 3 million to 4 million homeowners with underwater mortgages by paying lenders to reduce monthly payments to manageable size and then paying homeowners to continue to make those payments.

Continue reading Hopes for Housing -- Squashed

Beazer Homes Reports 4Q Loss

Home builder Beazer Homes (BZH) reported a fourth-quarter loss Friday morning thanks to inventory charges and slumping new orders and home closings. BZH lost 81 cents per share during the most-recent quarter, a far cry from the firm's earnings of 84 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago. BZH's loss from continuing operations was 78 cents per share, far short of the Street's expected loss of 46 cents per share. Quarterly revenue also fell, slipping 25% to $274.8 million. Despite the drop, the revenue topped the consensus estimate for $255.3 million.

For the full fiscal year, BZH lost 57 cents per share ($34 million). Revenue came in at $1 billion. This loss is far better than last year's loss of $4.90 per share ($189.4 million) and revenue of $971.1 million.

Continue reading Beazer Homes Reports 4Q Loss

Lennar Earnings Improve in Q3, but Is It Time to Buy?

Lennar logoHomebuilder Lennar (LEN) had a great session on Monday. It closed at a price of $15.14, which represents a gain of over 8%. Volume was quite active, implying conviction in the move.

The one-year chart appears to be a volatile one, but it's in the context of a narrow range. The 52-week low is $11.56, and the 52-week high is $21.79. Does the stock have what it takes to break out of recent resistance levels? Can we infer positive things from yesterday's price change?

Continue reading Lennar Earnings Improve in Q3, but Is It Time to Buy?

Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Have Increased

home pricesAccording to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home price index, prices for single-family homes in 20 major cities increased a seasonally unadjusted 1.3% in May.

According to the report, prices have increased 4.6% during the past year. Compared to April, prices increased in 19 of the 20 metro areas that the index tracks. The last month's increase was the second-straight following six monthly declines.

Continue reading Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Have Increased

Stocks of Mortgage Insurers Rising

Mortgage insurers such as Radian Group (RDN) and PMI Group (PMI) have been suffering from rising mortgage defaults. But the group could be turning the corner. On Tuesday, the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG), posted a quarterly profit of $24.6 million compared to a loss of nearly $340 million in the year-ago quarter. That good news comes after three years of losses.

MGIC's results should bode well for Radian, which will announce its second quarter results on August 3, and PMI Group, which will release its second quarter results on July 29.

Continue reading Stocks of Mortgage Insurers Rising

Home Prices Edge Higher in April, Driven by Tax Credits

home pricesAccording to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, home prices in the 20 cities surveyed saw an increase for the first time in seven months. The 0.8% gain was driven by the government tax credits, which have since expired.

Therein lies the problem: the gains were propelled by government incentives, and said incentives have gone by the wayside. Will we see the gains come back to the pack since the government has stopped spending to make us spend? You can bet on it.

Continue reading Home Prices Edge Higher in April, Driven by Tax Credits

Three Signs Housing Has Bottomed

Whether you want to believe it or not, more indicators pop up each week that point to improvements in the housing market. Either we're at the bottom now, or we will be soon.

Of course, I just bought my first ever home in September of 2009 (a short-sale in Montgomery County, Md.) so perhaps I'm biased. But even in the worst markets there are signs of life in housing that should encourage investors and homebuyers alike.

Here are three top signs that the housing market has bottomed out.

Continue reading Three Signs Housing Has Bottomed

Five Reasons the Housing Market Is Improving

There's a whole lot of fuss on Wall Street right now about the impact of a first-time homebuyer credit expiring this week. The $8,000 question? Whether the housing market will continue to improve without the payday, or whether we are in for another round of falling home prices and rising foreclosures.

There's no doubt that 2010 so far has been very profitable for housing stocks. But are those profits going to stick, and is the housing market going to continue to improve?

Continue reading Five Reasons the Housing Market Is Improving

Chasing Value: 43% Gain to Build a Position in KB Homes

It's time to get serious about home builders again, and today I started building a position in KB Home (KBH) using options. Since the collapse of the residential real estate market three years ago prognosticators have been debating when the home builders might be worthy of investing your precious coin of the realm.

As is to be expected in these volatile times most were either too optimistic or pessimistic and few got it right. Like many stocks the home builders appear to have bottomed last March. In the case of KB Home shares were available at $10. Today they have been trading between $17.64 and $18.00 per share, up 80%, although it has been a rocky road.

That is a very healthy return, but there is much more upside to come. How would you like to make 43% quick? Yeah me too!

Continue reading Chasing Value: 43% Gain to Build a Position in KB Homes

Housing Starts Fell 5.9% in February

The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 5.9% in February to 575,000. Building permits also fell in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg news had forecast starts to fall to between 510,000 to 610,000.

Much of the weakness can be blamed on the weather. You don't start new construction in the midst of snowstorms and blizzards. Also, with a backlog of unsold existing homes, it becomes more difficult start new constructions. Builders remain cautious of moving forward too rapidly.

Here is a breakdown of the stats:

Continue reading Housing Starts Fell 5.9% in February

One in Five U.S. Mortgages Are 'Under Water'

Has the housing market hit bottom? According to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, the answer is no. Zillow does predict the bottom will come in the second half of 2010.

There are a host of complex factors weighing on the market. Among them are:

  • More than one-fifth (21.4%) of American single family home mortgages are "under water." That means that the homeowner owes more on the mortgage than the house is worth.

Continue reading One in Five U.S. Mortgages Are 'Under Water'

Housing Market Slides, but Some Silver Lining Visible

Home prices fell yet again in November, losing 0.2% month-over-month (on a not seasonally adjusted basis), following a 0.1% drop in October. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller's home price index reported only five out of 20 metro areas with gains, and from November 2008 to November 2009, home prices are off 5.3%. Need a benchmark? It's late 2003: Six years of appreciation have been obliterated by the financial crisis.

The slide worries analysts who wonder if the housing recovery is strong enough to keep moving forward. A stall on the housing side, of course, could push through the rest of the economy, ultimately putting the squeeze on consumer spending (further) and impeding overall growth.

Continue reading Housing Market Slides, but Some Silver Lining Visible

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