Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 2:00 PM ET hosted by CEO Robert I. Toll. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

Recent good news about the housing sector ought to be good news for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers. Yet, for the three months that ended July 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Pennsylvania-based company to report that its net loss widened to $1.74 per share from $0.18 per share a year ago. That largely due to the fact that revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 42.3% to $460.2 million, because of of falling home prices, tighter mortgage lending standards, and rising unemployment.

It looks like the housing market is coming back, but there's still reason to be careful. In July, home resales had their highest monthly increase in at least a decade. The rush is driven in part by a tax credit that expires on November 30, 2009. The rate of sale grew 7.2%, ahead of expectations.

Last month, sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million in July -- up from a 4.89 million in June. This is the fourth month in a row in which seasonally adjusted sales increased, and it was the strongest growth rate since August 2007. A Thomson Reuters survey had forecast 5 million, but the reality exceeded that.

There's good news and bad news about the mortgage market. The good news is that you can get your information from a variety of sources. The bad news? You really need to get your news from a variety of sources.

Conflicting reports Wednesday suggest that mortgage applications are up -- and down.

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) expects almost half of all U.S. homeowners to be underwater -- figuratively, of course -- by 2011.

Declines in home prices and the fact that some of those difficult mortgages just aren't going away put 26% of homeowners in this situation by the end of last March, and it seems the situation is only going to get worse. Unlike the early stages of the credit crisis, which were driven by subprime mortgages, the next iteration will have a greater effect on prime mortgage borrowers, which comprise two-thirds of the loans outstanding.

Early estimates of a contraction in the U.K. economy were not enough. First quarter 2009 estimates were revisited, showing a 2.4% fall in gross domestic product from the last quarter of 2008 to 2009. This downward revision made the first three months of the year the worst since people wore skinny ties, hated communism, and bore nicknames like "Buzz."

In the second quarter of 1958, U.K. GDP plummeted 2.6%, though the 2.4% threshold matches the depths hit in 1979. The original 2009 Q1 estimate was -1.9%, according to the Office for National Statistics in London.

Now we're talking fiscal stimulus. In a move to provide stimulus and economic incentives to a sector that, arguably, needs them the most, the U.S. Senate has added to the fiscal stimulus package a tax credit for up to $15,000 for homebuyers, The New York Times reported.

Economists and public policy analysts caution that the Senate has yet to vote on the stimulus bill, and the legislation, if approved, would then have to be reconciled, via a conference committee, with the stimulus package passed by the House. Nevertheless, economist Peter Dawson still likes the direction of the February wind in Washington.

Economists note that the U.S. recession that has mushroomed into a global recession with constrained credit and falling demand began with the rise in foreclosures in the U.S. housing sector.

Hence, ending the rise in foreclosures, while it would not mean U.S. GDP growth would immediately follow, will help put the world's largest economy on the road to recovery, many economists agree.

Further, it looks like the Obama administration is set to make a large financial commitment toward achieving that goal by allocating up to $100 billion of the TARP's second $350 billion in bailout / rescue funds for home mortgage refinances, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

One holiday wish by investors -- and business executives -- should be for a U.S. economic recovery, starting with the housing sector.

That's because the housing sector showed few signs of renewal in November, as the median sales price of existing homes plummeted 13.2% to $181,300 on a year-over-year basis, the National Association of Realtors announced Tuesday. In November 2007, the median price was $208,800.

By region, the median existing home price in November dropped 0.1% in the Northeast to $257,700, decreased 25.5% in the West to $242,500, dropped 10.6% in the South to $154,500, and declined 11.2% in the Midwest to $142,200.

Meanwhile, sales of existing homes sank 8.6% in November to a 4.49-million-unit annualized rate. Sales have declined 10.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Equally distressing, the number of existing homes on the market in November rose to an 11.2-month supply at the current sales rate, up from a 10.3-month supply in October. A typical healthy market has a three to five month supply.

Home prices are 'not delightful'

Economist Peter Dawson said the weather outside is frightful, and home prices are not delightful.

If a vote were held Thursday or Friday, the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion bailout bill would probably pass both chambers of the U.S. Congress, but by narrow margins and with a) an equity stake for U.S. taxpayers for every company that receives assistance, b) a cap on executive compensation, and c) oversight provisions.

Once the bailout work is done, should the U.S. Congress also pass a homeowners assistance bill to help more homeowners with at-risk / burdensome mortgages refinance to secure a lower interest rate?

As BloggingStocks' Jon Berr pointed out Monday, while lawmakers (and no doubt taxpayers) do not want to reward housing speculators, there's a large pool of borrowers who will be able to pay their mortgages if they can get out of high interest rate notes, and other burdensome adjustable rate mortgages, and refinance at a low, 30-year fixed rate.

While it's true the U.S. Government and taxpayers would end up subsidizing refinanced mortgages if the government receives interest that's less than it could by investing the money elsewhere, the costs of foreclosure - leading to bond defaults - leading to banking institution stress / systemic stress will undoubtedly be far greater, so says economist David H. Wang.

If you think that the 'too big to fail' / 'too interconnected to fail' doctrine probably protects the Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase, you think right. But don't expect either stock to race-up like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) did in the 'Wonderful 1990s' -- not just yet.

The U.S. Government's estimated $700 billion plan to stabilize credit markets will likely safeguard both BAC and JPM due to the large impact a failure of each would have on the financial system, Luigi Zingales, professor of finance at the University of Chicago, told Bloomberg News Monday, adding that it "will definitely make their bonds safer."

BAC, JPM: Operational challenges ahead

However, economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Monday investors should not rush out and buy either stock just yet. Felson added that he does not have a rating on nor own shares in either company. The Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), which closed Friday at $37.48, has a p/e of 21; JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), at $47.05, a p/e of 15.5.

"Each has a series of operational issues to address in the financial services space," Felson said. "The Bank of America has a major merger and culture integration process ahead following the purchase of Merrill Lynch. Major employee, client retention and investment decisions are ahead, and this will weigh on shares."

Many economists, analysts, traders and others agree it's way too soon to assess the impact of this latest, mortgage-related jolt on the stock and bond markets, and on the U.S. and global economies.

There are too many moving parts, and too many unknowns to form meaningful, enduring conclusions. The reason? The financial world order we see today may not, in fact, be the financial world order we see tomorrow. The Dow was down about 256 points to 11,165 early Monday afternoon.

But there is one conclusion U.S. investors / citizens can form regarding the U.S. economy, so says an economist: expanding credit and rising home prices, in and of themselves, are not engines of economic growth.

Now, everyone's recognizing 'the obvious'

"We have now entered the age of recognizing the obvious," economist Richard Felson said. "Almost everyone knew that the booming housing market would slow down as soon as all potential buyers had been tapped and as the American economy slowed. But few foresaw the impact the slowdown would have on mortgage bonds, their owners, and the financial system. We now have to rebuild the American credit market, and global credit market, as well, to a degree. It will be a major task."

The primary source of all the above, in Felson's interpretation? Structural problems in the U.S. economy, primarily a lack of jobs, or low job growth, he said.

"For the better part of four years, America went blithely along, confident that the fundamentals of the [U.S.] economy were sound. Yet all the while, job growth and its companion, rising median wages, were inadequate. But they were ignored because corporate earnings were up and home values were rising. But it was a building constructed on quicksand," Felson said. "The boom was not sustainable. The [U.S.] economy did not have growth engines in place for sustainable growth. "

The real estate research firm Zillow.com released a sobering statistic, and it took some by surprise: more than one-third of homeowners who bought in the past five years have negative equity in their homes.

Negative equity is owing more on your mortgage than the market value of your home. On the heels of the United States' greatest residential real estate boom in the modern era, how did the above occur?

Two factors, so says economist Peter Dawson.

First, many regions of the U.S., particularly the west, experienced abnormal gains during the 2003-2007 real estate boom. "Total appreciation rates over 300% were not unusual during the period. It was an amazing run, fueled by adequate national GDP growth, and low mortgage rates," Dawson said. "But as we've seen, ultimately the appreciation rates proved to be unsustainable, everywhere they occurred."

Dawson says a 7-9% annual increase in the U.S. median home price is normal, and his models label a 10% annual increase or higher as "outsized" -- a deviation from the mean that calls for a correction at some point in time. "But during the boom, it was not uncommon to see 30%, 40%, 50% annual increases over multiple years," Dawson said. "Clearly unsustainable. Downright frothy. But these conclusions were largely ignored during the boom, on the fallacy of 'what has occurred will continue.' "

Second, a financial habit shifted, Dawson said. Way, way back in the twentieth century, Dawson recalled, the biggest stigma when he grew up in a typical neighborhood in White Plains, N.Y., a suburb about an hour north of New York City, was... Not gaining acceptance at a good college? No. Not getting the hottest date for the high school senior prom? No. "We learned that the Smith's [not their real name] down the street had to take out...a second mortgage," Dawson said.

The protracted housing slump that has devastated U.S. home prices now appears to have fully-enveloped the United Kingdom. Home prices in the United Kingdom in August fell at their fastest pace in two decades (pdf), U.K.-based mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society announced Thursday.

On a year-over-year basis, the average price of a U.K. home plummeted 10.5% to $301,500 or 164,654 British pounds in August, NBS said. Further, it was the first year-over-year double-digit decline in the U.K. since 1990.

London-based economist Mark Chandler told BloggingStocks Thursday the August U.K. housing data, "is just dreadful."

"Housing in the U.K. is becoming a bit of a 'magical mystery tour,' to borrow a phrase from The Beatles. For a month or so, we thought the declines in home prices had moderated. Apparently not," Chandler said. "Tighter lending requirements and real concern about the economy have sapped sales and it's really showing up in the price data."

With the world's top central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for their annual retreat, amid the global economy's worst credit crunch in a generation and slowing GDP growth in every region, BloggingStocks asked a few economists what, in their opinion, should be on the central bankers' minds.

Economist David H. Wang – "I bet they sneak away for a few minutes to watch the United States versus Argentina [2008 Olympics] semi-final basketball game today. I would. Seriously, on the one hand central bankers face the prospect of another round of housing-related write-offs and the need to intervene to keep markets liquid. On the other hand, we still have oil-fed inflation in the system, so my sense is they will issue a statement indicating that the major central banks 'stand at the ready to provide additional liquidity and take other measures' to keep markets functioning."

Economist Peter Dawson – "I would really like to see some European Central Bank comments from [President Jean-Claude] Trichet that he's ready to cut rates and that the greater risk in Europe, like the U.S., is toward recession. Demand in Europe is slowing, and if E.U.-U.S. trade flows continue to decline, that will prolong the recession. Hence, ECB monetary policy is intrinsic to the recovery story."

Economist Glen Langan – "Probably the most important item on their agenda, after maintaining liquid, functioning markets, concerns long-term interest rates. They haven't fallen, due to banks' reluctance to lend, in order to repair their balance sheets. Housing faces a 2-3 year recovery period but we'll need long-term mortgage rates for 30-year fixed loans to drift back toward 6.00% or 5.75% to speed housing's transition back to health. If monetary officials don't find a way to get long-term rates to trend lower, that delays the recovery."

Want a classic example of how the real estate slump is affecting not only the construction industry and home owners, but also states and municipalities, as well?

Consider the plight of the nation's largest city, the City of New York.

Wall Street's mortgage losses have ballooned to such a degree that some firms may pay small or no taxes for years, Bloomberg News reported. That's right: no taxes for years.

Rising tax revenues, no more

For much of the current decade, indeed for much of the 1990s as well, the city could count on rising tax revenue from Wall Street firms -- based on increased securities industry business -- as a starting point for the city's budget. Not now: the city, which derives about 20% of its revenue from Wall Street businesses, is projecting a decline in revenue from Wall Street firms -- a contraction that is expected to widen the this year's $1.5 budget deficit in fiscal 2009 to $2.3 billion next year, fiscal 2010, and then to $5.96 billion in fiscal 2011 budget deficit, Bloomberg News reported. The city's budget for fiscal 2009 is $59.1 billion.

The Wall Street recession has put the social service goals of Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg on hold, for the most part. Bloomberg has already asked city department and agency heads to implement a 6.4% spending cut; he will likely ask department heads to identify other cost savings of up to 3%, should revenues continue to come in below projections.