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Posts with tag housing stocks

Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

"A decline in home ownership is good for companies who have apartments to rent," notes The Dave Dyer Newsletter. To benefit from this trend, he looks at Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB)." Here is his review.

"After a 10 year period of consistent increases from 1995 to 2005, the trend toward increasing home ownership has reversed and is now clearly in decline. The subprime problems and tighter credit policies will only serve to increase the decline.

"One of the easiest ways to invest in this trend is to buy shares in a REIT that owns apartment properties. Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB.) is a REIT that manages high quality apartment communities in the high barrier-to-entry markets like California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

"In some cases, they develop their own properties; in others, they buy and remodel existing apartment complexes. They currently own 182 properties with about 52,000 apartments in total. AVB has 19 more properties under constructions and development rights for another 52.

Continue reading Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on US Home Construction ETF (ITB)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My favorite 'home run' speculation for 2008 is playing a rebound in the beaten-down US housing sector," says Mike Burnick, editor of Global Market Investor.

"Specifically, I like the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ASE: ITB). This exchange-traded fund is a pure contrarian play not based on valuation, since fundamentals continue to deteriorate in the US housing market.

"The US housing market is still a mess, home prices are plunging, sales continue to slump, and inventories of unsold homes are at record highs. There's very little we can see to like in this sector.

"But, in fact, that's often the key to earning big returns in the stock market: Make well-timed contrarian bets on the most unloved stocks and sectors.

"However, I believe that negative sentiment in the sector has reached an extreme. Put/call volume on homebuilder stocks is at an extreme, and short interest is near record highs. I believe the turning point for this sector is close at hand.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on US Home Construction ETF (ITB)

Best Stocks for 2008: Value shopping at Home Depot (HD)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Our favorite conservative pick for 2008 is Home Depot (NYSE: HD)," says Daniel Frishberg, editor of The MoneyMan Report and host of BizRadio.

"This is a stock that has been beaten down due to the weak housing market. We believe, based on the fact that it owns most of the real estate its stores sit on and these are typically in the best areas of town, that it's undervalued.

"With new management in there and a housing market that will stabilize, home improvement will do very well over the next several years. Home Depot typically trades at 14X cash flow since 1995. Based on that one parameter, the stock could be a double over the next couple of years.

"The company's balance sheet is in excellent shape at this point. We believe most of the bad news is priced in and with a Fed that will continue to cut interest rates, Home Depot will be an economically sensitive stock that will benefit. In our view, this is a 2-3 year hold.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Value shopping at Home Depot (HD)

Best Stocks for 2008: Housing woes take a toll on Toll Brothers (TOL)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Homebuilders have been in a slump, to say the least," says Jim Farrish, editor of Sector Exchange.

"The technical charts on homebuilders look very similar to those of technology stocks during their rise from 1998-2000. In fact, the index has declined more than 70% peak to trough. Looking toward 2008 and the housing market, we could start to see a turnaround.

"The start is likely to be government aided, which is why we like this as an aggressive play, as the Federal government will put more money into fixing something than corporate America. Current proposals will not come close to fixing it, but will at least put a band aid on the situation and allow the healing process to begin.

"Our vote to benefit here would be Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). The company has one of the better-looking balance sheets in the industry and management has done a fairly good job of dealing with this downside market.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Housing woes take a toll on Toll Brothers (TOL)

Comfort Zone Investing: Wall Street is slippery when wet

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

There's an old saying on Wall Street: Invest when there's blood in the streets. Well, the streets are getting pretty slippery, especially if you're walking in the financials or housing stocks area. If you're not buying some of these stocks, you're going to miss out on some great profits.

First, before you do anything, do some basic math on any stock you consider in the financials or housing issues. Find out what the Book Value is (on AOL you can find that in Personal Finance in the Quotes program) or on Yahoo!Finance or other quote program. The Book value is what the company is worth if you subtract all the liabilities from the balance sheet. It's what's left for stockholders if the company were to dissolve and pay the remaining money to the shareholders.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Wall Street is slippery when wet

John Bollinger: A contrary bet on homebuilders

John Bollinger is among the industry's most respected technical analysts. In the "Contrary Corner" of his Capital Growth Letter, the advisor suggests scaling into a package of three home building stocks.

He explains, "For this exercise, I've looked at 20 home building stocks, each stock based on its monthly charts. Yes, I know that seems like a sacrilege in the day and age of hyperactive short-term trading, but we are taking the long view here.

"I then looked at the percentage drop from the stock's most recent swing high and then the number of months from the peak to the trough or the present if a swing low has not been established. I then looked to determine if there is a swing low in place.

"After reviewing these 20 homebuilding stock, I've chosen 3 candidates to start. I like the idea of selecting a fair number of small positions that add up to a normal sized position, then eliminating the non-performers as time passes while keeping the winners. We are choosing WCI Communities (NYSE: WCI), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) and St. Joe (NYSE: JOE) as our first commitments."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Q2 earnings season: modest expectations for S & P 500 companies

Just call it the "half a loaf is better than none" or "the glass is half-full" earnings quarter, or... well you get the point.

Wall Streets' analysts expect earnings growth from S & P 500 companies to slow in the second quarter, but that doesn't mean that there won't be stand-out sectors.

For example, energy companies are expected to benefit from elevated oil prices, barely-adequate gasoline refinery capacity, and solid demand for petroleum-based products.

Also, the industrial and technology sectors are expected to fair well: the industrials boosted by continued strong global growth, the techs aided by corporate information technology spending.

On the downside, likely to post sub-par earnings results include the auto and housing companies: U.S. automakers are battling operational restructuring and a slowdown in consumer spending, while the housing sector continues to correct, due to a large supply of unsold homes, rising interest rates, and subprime loan defaults.

Market-wide, analysts expect S & P 500 companies to post Q2 year-over-year earnings growth of 4.4%, according to Thomson Financial. If that sounds like a modest slowdown compared to the double-digit earnings growth prior to 2007, you're right, and Wall Street has, accordingly, "lowered the earnings expectations bar" for this quarter. Hence, in general, companies that fail to exceed analysts' earnings estimates by 10% are not likely to face as harsh a treatment by investors as they would in quarters past, when the earnings expectations bar was higher.

Still, given the strong correlation between earnings growth and stock prices, lowered expecations or not, this quarter's earnings performance will provide investors with a telling data point regarding whether there's fundamental evidence to drive stock prices higher, and by extension, to continue the market's bull run of 2007.

Contrary plays: US housing & Canadian trusts

Dan Frishberg, editor of The MoneyMan Newsletter and host of BizRadio 1320, is going out on the limb with some contrary positions in two out-of-favor sectors -- a U.S. housing play and a Canadian income trust.

To recall, last fall, the Canadian government changed laws regarding the way that Canadian income trusts would be taxed, which led to a marked fall-off in the entire sector. Frishberg now notes, "I've been watching the sector since prices fell dramatically in a short amount of time." And one stock in particular that he has watched is Canetic Resources Trust (NYSE: CNE), which he notes fell from $17 to around $12.

Since then, he says, it's bounced around $12 several times and it appears it's finally starting to get some traction. Indeed, he adds, "There are now rumors of private equity coming into this area as their next target. Many energy trusts might get taken public and their domiciles moved to another country, possibly the U.S."

He continues, "If that happens, many of these trusts will rocket higher." The advisor has added Canetic Resources to his income portfolio. The stock has a yield based on the current dividend of just under 15% per year and pays a monthly dividend.

In another move into an equally out of favor sector, the advisor is also going long in the housing sector. He explains, "Stocks move ahead of news -- and some of our forward looking indicators are showing that home prices may actually improve in the next few months."

Frishberg notes, "Once everyone agrees that housing is improving nationally, the stocks will have already run up in advance. From a technical perspective, we really like the homebuilders as a whole." To reduce risk, he is avoiding investing in any one particular housing stock and is buying a basket of holdings iSHARES Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction (ASE: ITB), an exchange-traded fund."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Top Picks 2007: Schaeffer sees solid foundation under Lennar

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is the favorite conservative investment for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, editor of The Option Advisor. He notes, "Lennar, one of the largest homebuilding firms in the U.S., is built on a very solid foundation.

"For more than 20 quarters running, the stock has exceeded or matched analysts' per-share earnings expectations. Despite negative earnings revisions and poor housing statistics during the past few months, homebuilding stocks have actually rallied from their July 2006 lows.

"For its part, LEN is back up near six-month highs. It has been a relative-strength leader when compared to its peers in the outperforming ISE Homebuilders Index. Meanwhile, options players are firmly entrenched in the bearish camp. And, nearly 9% of the equity's float has been sold short.

"Analysts are still leery of LEN, as evidenced by the latest Zacks data. Of the 12 brokerage firms ranking the shares, five have awarded a 'hold' rating while two list the stock as a 'strong sell.' A continued upward drive in the shares could spur some upgrade activity, drawing positive attention toward the equity."

To see Bernie's favorite speculative idea for 2007, click here.

Barron's: Time to buy real estate stocks?

pulteTop investors know that the best time to buy is when everyone thinks it's crazy to buy. Look at Wilbur Ross Jr. Over the years, he has made a fortune by investing in a variety of long-dead industries, such as steel, coal and textiles.

Yes, this takes a lot of guts. And, it is still quite risky – and it can take years for an industry to come back (also, in the case of Ross, he has the advantage of forcing changes to create better values).

Still interested in taking a contrarian bet? Well, Barron's front cover piece this week ("Big Ripple") is about the opportunities in the real estate biz. Given all the bad news, this is certainly a gutsy call – but, for investors, there may be opportunity.

According to the article, housing stocks are priced for a prolonged fall in the real estate sector. However, if this does not turn out to be the case, these stocks could be bargains.

Home builders, for example, are down 65% over the past year. And some are selling below book value, like MDC Holdings (MDC), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) and WCI Communities (WCI).

In fact, there may be a catalyst to get these stocks moving. That is, as valuations get extremely low, there may be a spate of acquisitions and leverage buyouts. Also, expect increased stock buybacks.

True, a turnaround is far from guaranteed. Things may really implode over the next few years. But, for the most part, the housing sector looks like a pretty good play for any contrarian investor.

Hey, even famed mutual fund manager, Bill Miller, is bullish on the sector, with holdings like Centex (CTX) and Pulte (PHM).

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, such as the Complete M&A Handbook and operates InvestorOffering.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+29.8811,632.38
NASDAQ+21.922,325.88
S&P 500+5.191,282.19

Last updated: July 24, 2008: 05:27 AM

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