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Homebuilding in Brazil: 'Hot sector in hot market'

"Gafisa S.A. (NYSE: GFA) is a bet on Brazil; the company is the country's second-largest homebuilder," says international investing expert Nicholas Vardy.

In his The Global Bull Market Alert, he adds, "Brazilian homebuilders are a red-hot sector in a red-hot market. Brazil is one of the strongest-performing global markets this year, and one that you should definitely have exposure to in the final quarter of 2009.

"Brazilian homebuilders are a red-hot sector in a red-hot market. Stocks in this sector have already doubled their share prices this year as policy makers cut interest rates to a record low and the government unveiled a 34 billion real ($18.8 billion) housing stimulus plan.

Continue reading Homebuilding in Brazil: 'Hot sector in hot market'

Plum Creek: Timber!

"With its strong balance Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL) will be able to weather the real estate storm," says growth and income expert Stephen Leeb in The Complete Investor. Here is his look at the timber play.

"Plum Creek, which was added to our model portfolio in November, is the largest and most geographically diverse private landowner in the U.S. and owns more than 7.4 million acres of timberlands in the Pacific Northwest, the South, and the Northeast.

Continue reading Plum Creek: Timber!

AvalonBay (AVB): REIT rental returns

"With occupancy rates around 95%, apartment REITs appear to be the one bright spot in the REIT sector," says Asif Suria in The SINLetter; he looks at AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB).

"The company generates nearly half its net operating income from the NY/NJ metro area and New England. California represents an additional 32% of net operating income.

"With a management team that is well respected and leverage that is the lowest of any apartment REIT, AvalonBay has traded at a premium over the last few years and the stock was trading at nearly $150 when I first came across the company in early 2007.

"I continued watching the company over the last two years looking for an opportunity to start a position. With a decline of over 70% from its 2007 high and a yield of 8.1%, this apartment REIT is finally at a level that not only offers a fat yield but also the potential of price appreciation.

Continue reading AvalonBay (AVB): REIT rental returns

New data: No recovery in home-building stocks

Homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in the value of their houses last year. A report from Zillow.com, picked up by Bloomberg, said that national home prices dropped 11.6% compared to 2007.

That makes stocks like Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Beazer (NYSE: BZH) sells, even at current depressed levels. HOV shares are down to $1.64 from a 52-week high of $13.50. Beazer is off from a high of $12.40 to $0.98. The company could even face delisting over the next year if it cannot get its share price up.

There is a temptation to think that home-building stocks are so inexpensive that, if the companies can drop inventory prices enough, they can start to improve sales, even if the margins on each home sold are poor. But it is not that simple.

Continue reading New data: No recovery in home-building stocks

'Growing' assets: Plum Creek Timber (PCL)

"Seattle-based Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL), the nation's largest private landowner with more than eight million acres, has caught our eye," says Bill Martin.

In his BullMarket.com advisory, he explains, "Earnings have been stunted in recent quarters by the housing slump, but the company sports a strong balance sheet and an asset base that thanks to nature only gets larger and more valuable as time goes by."

"Plum Creek, which operates as a real estate investment trust, reported surprisingly solid Q3 profit. It posted net income of $69 million, or 40 cents per share, for the quarter ended September 30th, compared with a profit of $59 million, or 34 cents per share, for the same period a year ago.

"In the 2007 quarter, fire losses in Montana forced the company to report a $4 million non-cash expense, or two cents per share, related to fire losses experienced in Montana.

"The company's EPS results topped the expectations of Wall Street analysts by a penny a share. Revenue grew to $414 million, up 2% from $407 million last year. The sales results were a bit short of the consensus of $419.8 million.

Continue reading 'Growing' assets: Plum Creek Timber (PCL)

Building value: Contrary call on homebuilders

"The economic crisis began in the housing sector and will likely end there," says Stephen Leeb. In his top-notch The Complete Investor he takes a contrary look at two homebuilders.

"Though my view may sound contrarian to a fault, a close look at the housing market, especially given recent government actions, suggests a recovery will happen sooner rather than later and be stronger rather than weaker.

"When home prices decline, buyers pull back, afraid of buying too soon. This leads to further declines and further buyer reluctance. No surprise, then, that housing starts have fallen dramatically.

"Meanwhile, consumers, who had been borrowing money based on the value of their homes, found this source of credit drying up, which dealt a further blow to the economy.

"It is a vicious circle indeed. Ultimately, though, it will almost certainly end with more willing lenders and a stronger housing market as the huge amounts of money being flooded into the system start boosting balance sheets of potential lenders.

Continue reading Building value: Contrary call on homebuilders

A stock that profits from foreclosures

For speculators, Martin Weiss has uncovered a stock that benefits from rising home foreclosures. In the higher risk section of his The Safe Money Report he looks at Lender Processing Services (NYSE: LPS).

"We have a new speculative pick: Lender Processing Services. This company was spun off from Fidelity National Information Services a couple of months ago.

"It is the biggest outsourcing firm in the business of processing home loan defaults and foreclosures.

"As you might imagine, that business is booming due to the massive flood of troubled mortgages -- revenues in the company's default services unit soared 90% to $197.2 million in the second quarter from a year earlier.

"LPS also has a division that helps investors, banks and other clients model prepayments, defaults and other characteristics of mortgage-related securities.

"With everyone trying to figureout the value of all the troubled paper out there, the demand for those services should also ramp up. We emphasize, however, that this is a speculative play."

Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

DuPont (DD): 'As blue chip as a company gets'

"Broad-based chemical, agriculture, and 'science technology' company DuPont (NYSE: DD) is about as 'blue chip' as companies get," says Bill Martin.

In his BullMarket.com, the trading and investing expert explains, "One of the oldest firms in the country DuPont has shown it can continue to remake itself and grow." Here's his review.

"DuPont offers the potential of significant gains once the major weak links in the U.S. economy -- namely housing and the automotive sector -- rebound from their funks and eventually begin to grow.

"DuPont turned in a solid performance in the second quarter, posting a profit of $1.08 billion, or $1.18 per share, up from $972 million, or $1.04 per share, a year ago.

"The bottom line was enhanced by seven cents a share as the result of a lawsuit settlement and a lower tax rate that resulted from a one-time tax settlement. The company cited strength in is agricultural products business as well strong sales in emerging markets for the growth.

Continue reading DuPont (DD): 'As blue chip as a company gets'

Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

"A decline in home ownership is good for companies who have apartments to rent," notes The Dave Dyer Newsletter. To benefit from this trend, he looks at Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB)." Here is his review.

"After a 10 year period of consistent increases from 1995 to 2005, the trend toward increasing home ownership has reversed and is now clearly in decline. The subprime problems and tighter credit policies will only serve to increase the decline.

"One of the easiest ways to invest in this trend is to buy shares in a REIT that owns apartment properties. Avalon Bay (NYSE: AVB.) is a REIT that manages high quality apartment communities in the high barrier-to-entry markets like California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

"In some cases, they develop their own properties; in others, they buy and remodel existing apartment complexes. They currently own 182 properties with about 52,000 apartments in total. AVB has 19 more properties under constructions and development rights for another 52.

Continue reading Avalon Bay (AVB): More renters boost apartment REIT

Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on US Home Construction ETF (ITB)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My favorite 'home run' speculation for 2008 is playing a rebound in the beaten-down US housing sector," says Mike Burnick, editor of Global Market Investor.

"Specifically, I like the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ASE: ITB). This exchange-traded fund is a pure contrarian play not based on valuation, since fundamentals continue to deteriorate in the US housing market.

"The US housing market is still a mess, home prices are plunging, sales continue to slump, and inventories of unsold homes are at record highs. There's very little we can see to like in this sector.

"But, in fact, that's often the key to earning big returns in the stock market: Make well-timed contrarian bets on the most unloved stocks and sectors.

"However, I believe that negative sentiment in the sector has reached an extreme. Put/call volume on homebuilder stocks is at an extreme, and short interest is near record highs. I believe the turning point for this sector is close at hand.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Contrary call on US Home Construction ETF (ITB)

Best Stocks for 2008: Value shopping at Home Depot (HD)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Our favorite conservative pick for 2008 is Home Depot (NYSE: HD)," says Daniel Frishberg, editor of The MoneyMan Report and host of BizRadio.

"This is a stock that has been beaten down due to the weak housing market. We believe, based on the fact that it owns most of the real estate its stores sit on and these are typically in the best areas of town, that it's undervalued.

"With new management in there and a housing market that will stabilize, home improvement will do very well over the next several years. Home Depot typically trades at 14X cash flow since 1995. Based on that one parameter, the stock could be a double over the next couple of years.

"The company's balance sheet is in excellent shape at this point. We believe most of the bad news is priced in and with a Fed that will continue to cut interest rates, Home Depot will be an economically sensitive stock that will benefit. In our view, this is a 2-3 year hold.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Value shopping at Home Depot (HD)

Best Stocks for 2008: Housing woes take a toll on Toll Brothers (TOL)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Homebuilders have been in a slump, to say the least," says Jim Farrish, editor of Sector Exchange.

"The technical charts on homebuilders look very similar to those of technology stocks during their rise from 1998-2000. In fact, the index has declined more than 70% peak to trough. Looking toward 2008 and the housing market, we could start to see a turnaround.

"The start is likely to be government aided, which is why we like this as an aggressive play, as the Federal government will put more money into fixing something than corporate America. Current proposals will not come close to fixing it, but will at least put a band aid on the situation and allow the healing process to begin.

"Our vote to benefit here would be Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). The company has one of the better-looking balance sheets in the industry and management has done a fairly good job of dealing with this downside market.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Housing woes take a toll on Toll Brothers (TOL)

Comfort Zone Investing: Wall Street is slippery when wet

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

There's an old saying on Wall Street: Invest when there's blood in the streets. Well, the streets are getting pretty slippery, especially if you're walking in the financials or housing stocks area. If you're not buying some of these stocks, you're going to miss out on some great profits.

First, before you do anything, do some basic math on any stock you consider in the financials or housing issues. Find out what the Book Value is (on AOL you can find that in Personal Finance in the Quotes program) or on Yahoo!Finance or other quote program. The Book value is what the company is worth if you subtract all the liabilities from the balance sheet. It's what's left for stockholders if the company were to dissolve and pay the remaining money to the shareholders.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Wall Street is slippery when wet

John Bollinger: A contrary bet on homebuilders

John Bollinger is among the industry's most respected technical analysts. In the "Contrary Corner" of his Capital Growth Letter, the advisor suggests scaling into a package of three home building stocks.

He explains, "For this exercise, I've looked at 20 home building stocks, each stock based on its monthly charts. Yes, I know that seems like a sacrilege in the day and age of hyperactive short-term trading, but we are taking the long view here.

"I then looked at the percentage drop from the stock's most recent swing high and then the number of months from the peak to the trough or the present if a swing low has not been established. I then looked to determine if there is a swing low in place.

"After reviewing these 20 homebuilding stock, I've chosen 3 candidates to start. I like the idea of selecting a fair number of small positions that add up to a normal sized position, then eliminating the non-performers as time passes while keeping the winners. We are choosing WCI Communities (NYSE: WCI), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) and St. Joe (NYSE: JOE) as our first commitments."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com features the latest stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Q2 earnings season: modest expectations for S & P 500 companies

Just call it the "half a loaf is better than none" or "the glass is half-full" earnings quarter, or... well you get the point.

Wall Streets' analysts expect earnings growth from S & P 500 companies to slow in the second quarter, but that doesn't mean that there won't be stand-out sectors.

For example, energy companies are expected to benefit from elevated oil prices, barely-adequate gasoline refinery capacity, and solid demand for petroleum-based products.

Also, the industrial and technology sectors are expected to fair well: the industrials boosted by continued strong global growth, the techs aided by corporate information technology spending.

On the downside, likely to post sub-par earnings results include the auto and housing companies: U.S. automakers are battling operational restructuring and a slowdown in consumer spending, while the housing sector continues to correct, due to a large supply of unsold homes, rising interest rates, and subprime loan defaults.

Market-wide, analysts expect S & P 500 companies to post Q2 year-over-year earnings growth of 4.4%, according to Thomson Financial. If that sounds like a modest slowdown compared to the double-digit earnings growth prior to 2007, you're right, and Wall Street has, accordingly, "lowered the earnings expectations bar" for this quarter. Hence, in general, companies that fail to exceed analysts' earnings estimates by 10% are not likely to face as harsh a treatment by investors as they would in quarters past, when the earnings expectations bar was higher.

Still, given the strong correlation between earnings growth and stock prices, lowered expecations or not, this quarter's earnings performance will provide investors with a telling data point regarding whether there's fundamental evidence to drive stock prices higher, and by extension, to continue the market's bull run of 2007.

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 11:05 PM

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