It's time to get serious about home builders again, and today I started building a position in KB Home (KBH) using options. Since the collapse of the residential real estate market three years ago prognosticators have been debating when the home builders might be worthy of investing your precious coin of the realm.

As is to be expected in these volatile times most were either too optimistic or pessimistic and few got it right. Like many stocks the home builders appear to have bottomed last March. In the case of KB Home shares were available at $10. Today they have been trading between $17.64 and $18.00 per share, up 80%, although it has been a rocky road.

That is a very healthy return, but there is much more upside to come. How would you like to make 43% quick? Yeah me too!

The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 5.9% in February to 575,000. Building permits also fell in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg news had forecast starts to fall to between 510,000 to 610,000.

Much of the weakness can be blamed on the weather. You don't start new construction in the midst of snowstorms and blizzards. Also, with a backlog of unsold existing homes, it becomes more difficult start new constructions. Builders remain cautious of moving forward too rapidly.

Here is a breakdown of the stats:

The Commerce Department reported this morning that U.S. housing starts fell 4% in December, bringing the seasonally adjusted annual rate to 557,000. For all of 2009, roughly 554,000 homes were started, which is 39% lower than the total from a year earlier. Furthermore, this reading is the lowest since the end of World War II.

Starts of single-family homes fell 29% to a record low of 444,000 in 2009. The good news? This reading was a good deal better than the 540,000 rate expected by analysts and November's starts were revised higher.

Foreclosure filings spiked in December. The 14% increase from the previous month made the first monthly increase since July -- and a hell of a severe way to break the streak. The double-digit increase, reported by RealtyTrac, brought the number of foreclosures to 349,519 in December. In addition to the increase from November, the result is a year-over-year increase of 15% from December 2008. In 2009, 2.8 million foreclosures were filed, up 21% from 2008 and 120% from 2007.

Foreclosure activity reached a monthly high of 361,000 in July, but loan modifications, state legislation extending the foreclosure process and the volume of homes in the foreclosure pipeline had resulted in a gradual decline from that point. From the third quarter to the fourth, foreclosures fell 7%, though the rate was still up 18% from the fourth quarter of 2008. California posted a 17% decline in foreclosures quarter-over-quarter, though it increased 9% from November to December.

If you've become comfortable with the current state of the housing market ... don't. Economists at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Bank of America's Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) say there's still plenty of risk in the housing market.

Alec Phillips, the head of Goldman's Washington office, said, "The risk of renewed home price declines remains significant." His "working assumption" is a drop of between 5% and 10% by the middle of next year.

The market seems to want to go up each day as it has relentlessly almost every trading session since April. But yesterday, it had a tiny setback after the FOMC announcement. Today the culprit was housing. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales declined 2.7% in August. Every economist worth his salt said the number would rise.

Good news on the unemployment front did give the market an early boost this morning. Within an hour, though, bad news on the housing sales front wiped out the gains and moved the major indices into negative territory, where they have remained.

Here were today's unofficial closing numbers:

Dow 9,706.99 -41.56 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,050.78 -10.09 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,107.61 -23.81 (-1.12%)

July was a good month for new home sales, which saw an increase of 9.6 percent during the month.

Before we look at the good news, let's cover the bad news first. Even with the jump in sales in July, new home sales are still well below their peak four years ago. In fact, new home sales are 69 percent below their peaks when the housing market was at its best.

We have all been waiting to hear news that the housing market has rebounded, and we got a little indication that things were improving today as homebuilder sentiment rose this month to its highest level since September.

According to the National Association of Home Builders its index of builder confidence jumped two points in July to 17. This is the first time the index has hit 17 since last September.

Home foreclosure filings in the United States hit a record 1.9 million in the first half of 2009, according to RealtyTrac –-- on more than 1.5 million properties. Again, unemployment is one of the primary culprits, as a lack of income makes it pretty tough to bring a loan at risk of default up to date. The number of filings is up 9% from the second half of 2008 and up almost 15% from the same period last year.

Last month, foreclosure filings were up 5% relative to May and up 33% from June 2008. The month's action was the third highest on record, and it was the fourth month in a row in which there were filings on more than 300,000 properties.

Late Tuesday, Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) reported that its quarterly net loss checked in at $9.9 billion thanks to rising delinquencies. The company also blamed the results on continued impairments on its holdings of mortgage-backed securities. On a per share basis, FRE's quarterly loss increased to $3.14 a share, compared to $151 million a year ago, or 66 cents a share. The mortgage lender's total revenue dropped to $771 million from $1.41 billion a year ago.

FRE put aside $8.8 billion in provisions in order to cover credit losses for the first quarter, up from $7 billion in the final quarter of 2008. FRE attributed this to the increase in the number and rate of delinquent mortgages, coupled with increasing foreclosure-related losses.

Bright and early this morning, Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) reported that its first-quarter loss narrowed thanks to fewer write-downs. The luxury homes giant lost 55 cents per share compared to 61 cents per share a year ago. The quarterly loss misses the Thomson Reuters estimate by 3 pennies. TOL's latest results included write-downs (pre-tax don't you know?) of $156.6 million, compared to $245.5 million last year. Taking the write-downs out of the equation, TOL's quarterly profit hit six cents per share. TOL's quarterly revenue dropped 51% to $409.3 million.

Looking ahead, TOL stated that it won't provide fiscal 2009 guidance thanks to the current market climate. The homebuilder did state expectations that it will deliver somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 homes in the current year at an average price between $600,000 and $625,000.

Even while dancing on the edge of the Great Abyss one should keep one's eye on the numbers. In this case, the key indicators that presage an economy at risk of totally imploding. Sure, the auto sales numbers were no worse than grim expectations and the ISM manufacturing number was actually a positive. But, oh, we have lots of nasty numbers to go around. Start with the RevPar number. That's short for revenue per available room at hotels and is a solid indicator of the health of the travel industry, as well as the state of business travel spending. The number? Down a stunning 15.3% in the month of January, year-over-year.

Homeowners may have a better chance of saving their homes using the bankruptcy code thanks to Citigroup's (NYSE: C) turnaround on a process called cram-down. If cram-down becomes an option for bankruptcy judges, they can alter the terms of mortgages (often reducing the amount of principal due) to make it affordable for someone to stay in their home. Other changes could include reducing a loan's interest rate or extending its length.

Democrats have called for adding cram-downs to the bankruptcy code since 2007, but the banking industry has fought it. Now with banks taking so much bailout money, it's time to pay the piper. Senators Dick Durbin (D-Ill), Chris Dodd (D-Conn) and Charles Schumer (D-NY) have led the fight for change in the bankruptcy code. Since Citigroup agreed to the bankruptcy law change with certain conditions other banks have called Schumer promising to jump on board.

Now that there appears to be an agreement with the banks, the Democrats plan to add a cram-down provision to the economic stimulus plan moving through Congress. There will be some limits though. If the law passes, only mortgages entered into prior to the date of enactment of the bill will be eligible for cram-down. Homeowners also will need the show that they tried to negotiate with their mortgage holder. They must contact their banker at least 10 days before filing for bankruptcy to give the bank an opportunity to negotiate.

Helping people with troubled mortgages is supposed to keep them in their homes and , over time, stabilized the housing market. The FDIC and Congress have urged that more money from the TARP be used for the purpose of propping up home loans instead of improving bank balance sheets.

The conventional wisdom about helping homeowners make payments may be wrong. According to The Wall Street Journal, a report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision shows that "More than half of loans modified in the first quarter had slipped back into delinquency after six months, and were 30 or more days past due by the end of September."

Not very promising progress. The theories from federal officials about why this is happening were not very helpful.

A look at the average troubled mortgage-holder may be more useful. This is a man who may lose his job as unemployment rises from 7% to, perhaps, 9%. He has little prospect for his income to rise. He may have large amounts of credit card debt but no access to additional credit. He may have an expensive home equity loan. And, perhaps worst of all, the value of his home may be way below the value of his mortgage. He may be facing the fact that he will never get a dime of equity out of his house.

The idea that helping troubled mortgage-holders may break the fall of housing prices could be deeply flawed. That would mean that pouring tens of billions of dollars into the home mortgage market may have very little effect. Better to make people fell that their jobs are secure and that they have access to credit at reasonable costs. Maybe then homeowners will fell that paying their mortgages makes some sense.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

In putting together my Top 10 Stocks for 2009 last weekend, I focused on infrastructure, oil and agriculture. The 10 on the list are weighted to these sectors, as I believe they will deliver the biggest gains for the upcoming year.

I could have very easily added the homebuilding sector to the above list, but with only room for 10 stocks I had to draw the line somewhere. That said, I just could not resist the bargains in the builders, and I managed to include Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) to the list.

I had a hard time selecting just one builder, but a list of 10 requires one to make tough choices. I choose PHM for the relative safety in its valuation. At the time, the stock traded for about 60% of book value.

Other homebuilders traded for much lower valuations, and a close second to make my Top 10 list, is Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN). Trading at 20% of book value, I thought LEN was worthy of the speculation.