This week brings a small flurry of end-of-the-calendar-quarter earnings reports. And for the most part, the expectations of the analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters aren't very high. Companies expected to report declining earnings in the most recently concluded quarter include America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG), Jabil Circuit Inc. (NYSE: JBL), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX), Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), and Sonic Corp. (NASDAQ: SONC).
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The week in preview: End-of-quarter earnings expectations: Nike, Oracle, Walgreen ...
Earnings highlights: Google, KKR, Krispy Kreme, Williams-Sonoma, Guess? and more
Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:
- Aetna Inc. (NYSE: AET) lowered its 2009 earnings guidance, initially sending the share price lower.
- Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) reported a bigger-than-expected Q2 net loss as revenues sank.
- Collective Brands Inc. (NYSE: PSS) saw Q1 earnings and sales decline, but beat Wall Street estimates.
- Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) earnings prospects led Goldman Sachs analysts to increase its forecasts.
- Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) weak Q1 results topped estimates and it offered guidance that pleased investors.
Continue reading Earnings highlights: Google, KKR, Krispy Kreme, Williams-Sonoma, Guess? and more
Hovnanian's Q1 shows an improvement
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV), a home builder whose related companies include Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), and D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), reported Q2 results on Tuesday after the bell. The company reported a loss of $1.50 per share (the results included a gain related to debt extinguishment). That unfortunately did not meet analyst expectations according to Trey Thoelcke's earnings preview. Analysts were looking for a loss of $1.26 per share.
However, things do look better. Last year at this time, the loss recorded by Hovnanian was a whopping $5.29 per share. Revenues, however, plummeted to $398 million from over $770 million. Analysts were expecting only $348 million according to the preview.
Home builders expected to post narrower losses, declining revenue
Still wondering whether the housing market has bottomed? Well, the next couple of days should offer some clues, as pending home sales numbers for April are due out later this morning, and home builders Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV) and Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) will be releasing their quarterly results. While both are expected to have narrowed their losses, their revenues are expected to have shrunk by half, as well.
Continue reading Home builders expected to post narrower losses, declining revenue
The week in preview: DynCorp, Joy Global, Shanda and more
Much of the attention this week will no doubt be on how the impending General Motors (NYSE: GM) bankruptcy will shake out, as well as the usual economic concerns: Has the housing market bottomed? Will oil prices keep rising? Is the employment situation getting any better? And so on (see highlights of the economic calendar below).
What probably won't get much attention are quarterly earnings, as the earnings season for this quarter winds down. But there are a few reports that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes for.
Continue reading The week in preview: DynCorp, Joy Global, Shanda and more
The week in preview: Bernanke, earnings winners, and Raymond James conference
After testifying before a Senate committee about AIG (NYSE: AIG) last week, the Fed's Ben Bernanke participates in a Council of Foreign Relations event Monday evening.
Economic data due to be released this week include wholesale trade and job vacancies for January on Tuesday morning, the U.S. Treasury budget for February on Wednesday, retail sales for February and business inventories for January on Thursday morning, and the U.S. trade balance for January on Friday morning.
Continue reading The week in preview: Bernanke, earnings winners, and Raymond James conference
U.S. stimulus plan may give home builders a lift
One of the programs which may come with the new economic stimulus package is a big tax credit for people who buy new homes. It would help potential buyers across almost every income class, which is not what was being contemplated a few days ago. According to Bloomberg, "By replacing a $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers earning less than $150,000 with a $15,000 break for all income groups as part of the economic stimulus package, senators effectively are encouraging purchases by higher-income households with a reduced risk of default."
Last week, Moody's said it was reviewing debt ratings on four home builders, including Beazer (NYSE: BZH) and Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), for downgrades. That did not do the shareholder in the companies any favors.
Continue reading U.S. stimulus plan may give home builders a lift
New data: No recovery in home-building stocks
Homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in the value of their houses last year. A report from Zillow.com, picked up by Bloomberg, said that national home prices dropped 11.6% compared to 2007.
That makes stocks like Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Beazer (NYSE: BZH) sells, even at current depressed levels. HOV shares are down to $1.64 from a 52-week high of $13.50. Beazer is off from a high of $12.40 to $0.98. The company could even face delisting over the next year if it cannot get its share price up.
There is a temptation to think that home-building stocks are so inexpensive that, if the companies can drop inventory prices enough, they can start to improve sales, even if the margins on each home sold are poor. But it is not that simple.
Continue reading New data: No recovery in home-building stocks
The week in preview: Looking for good news
With the increasingly regular announcements of layoffs and plant closings, it's clear that the recession is deepening. One clue to the economy's future direction that investors may be watching for is the upcoming earnings release of FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX). The world's largest delivery service has been considered an economic bellwether, and it just may have benefited recently from lower fuel prices and the announced departure of rival DHL from the U.S. package market.
For the company's fiscal second-quarter 2009 report, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters on average expect to see earnings of $1.57 per share, about 2% higher than in the year-ago period, and 21.7% higher than in the previous quarter. That's about the same as the $1.58 per share FedEx forecast in preliminary results last week. Analysts expect revenues for the quarter ended November 30 to total $9.8 billion, 3.9% more than a year ago. The Memphis-based company has only fallen short of earnings expectations in one of the past five quarters, and exactly matched estimates back in the first quarter.
As part of its expansion plans, FedEx broke ground on a new Portland hub in October, and said that a new facility in China will be fully operational in the first half of 2009. The company continues to make service improvements, and declared a quarterly dividend in November. But in its preliminary results, FedEx lowered its full-year forecast, citing continued weakness in the economy.
Mortgage applications fall as home builders' stocks rise. Huh?
Everywhere I go in the suburban wonderland where I live there seems to be a new housing development. When I visited my brother- and sister-in-law in a neighboring town, I must have passed seven of them. Apparently, word of the housing slowdown has not reached Burlington County, New Jersey.This seems like madness. After all, the housing market is in the tank. Applications for mortgages fell 23% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended September 26, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association cited by Reuters. U.S. single-family home prices fell a record 16.3 percent in July from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes.
Consumer confidence is shaky -- heck, I am not feeling so confident even though I bought a car. Foreclosures are at record levels -- still. Banks are tightening their credit standards, making it difficult for borrowers without sterling credit to get loans or refinance their existing ones. That's what makes the rise in the home builder stocks even more baffling.
Shares of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) and Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) all gained double-digit percentages in the third quarter. The reason? Investors are chomping at the bit to call a bottom in the housing market. But I sat that's premature. S&P points out that many metropolitan areas are showing double-digit declines in home values. "There are signs of a slowdown in the rate of decline across the metro areas but no evidence of a bottom," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in a statement.
Continue reading Mortgage applications fall as home builders' stocks rise. Huh?
The week in preview: Have consumers turned to comfort food and used cars?
While the earnings crunch for this quarter is all but over, there is still plenty of action in the earnings arena this coming week. For instance, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting America's Car Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) and Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) to be among this week's top earnings gainers.
Bentonville, Ark.-based America's Car Mart is expected to post net income of 38 cents per share (up 52.6% from the same period a year ago) on revenue of $73.8 million (up 25.8%). The used car dealer chain has tended in recent quarters toward positive surprises -- by 21 cents per share, or 73.5%, in the previous quarter. The long-term EPS growth forecast is 15%, about the same as the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy CRMT.
Campell is tentatively scheduled to report this week, and the world's biggest soup maker is expected to post net income of 25 cents per share (up 44.0% from a year ago) on revenue of $1.7 billion (up 7.5%). The Camden, N.J.-based company has just missed earnings estimates in the past three quarters. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is 7.5%, which is less than the industry average, but about the same as rivals Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) and Heinz (NYSE: HNZ). The analysts' consensus recommendation is currently to buy Campbell.
Other anticipated double-digit earnings gainers scheduled to report this week include brand name apparel maker Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES), mining equipment maker Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG), and chip maker National Semiconductor (NYSE: NSM). And Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) is expected to swing to a profit.
Continue reading The week in preview: Have consumers turned to comfort food and used cars?
Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: The breadth of the danger is staggering
Early analyst calls (CC) (HOV) (YHOO)
Lehman Brothers reiterated its "underweight" rating on Circuit City (NYSE:CC) ahead of the company's annual meeting, according to the AP.
Credit Suisse started Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) and Meritage Homes (NYSE:MTH) as "underperform," according to Briefing.com.
Thomas Weisel downgraded Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) to "underweight" from "market weight," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that UBS upped its price target on Potash (NYSE:POT) from $250 to $285.
Analyst upgrades: SONE, CME and RDEN
MOST NOTEWORTHY: S1 Corp, CME Group and Elizabeth Arden were today's noteworthy upgrades:- Stephens upgraded shares of S1 Corp (NASDAQ: SONE) to Overweight from Equal Weight after meeting with management to reflect their increased confidence in the company's ability to execute. The firm maintains a $9 target on the stock.
- Citigroup upgraded shares of CME Group (NYSE: CME) to Buy from Hold as they find the risk/reward attractive with volumes picking up and consensus estimates at more rational levels. The firm maintains a $485 target.
- Oppenheimer raised Elizabeth Arden (NASDAQ: RDEN) to Outperform from Perform on valuation, as they believe the current share price does not adequately reflect potential earnings accretion from the company's licensing agreement with Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) or restructuring savings.
Early analyst calls (HOV) (BK)
UBS has upgraded Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) to "neutral" from "sell," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheimer raised its price target for Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN) to $42.
Lehman Brothers affirmed it "overweight" rating on Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) ahead of the company's annual meeting with brokers, according to the AP.
BMC Software (NYSE:BMC) started as "neutral" at UBS, according to Briefing.com.



