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Rock music comes back to NYC! O&A spared

Crain's NewYorkBusiness.com has told me some amazing news. Today, at 5:00 pm EST, the all-talk radio station 92.3 WFNY will change back to its historic rock roots as WXRK, or K-ROCK, according to sources at CBS Radio (NYSE: CBS).

The move couldn't come fast enough.

Its the first sign of change under new CEO Dan Mason, who replaced Joel Hollander last month.

The move back to rock music ends the all-talk format when Howard Stern went to Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) at the end of 2005. WFNY has struggled from day one. The station had a paltry 1.3 share of the audience during the 2007 winter quarter, the same a year ago.

Opie & Anthony, currently serving a 30-day suspension at XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR), will get to keep their morning drive job on the new (old) WXRK. After 9 am, the station will return to its rock roots.

Just minutes ago, Opie from the O&A was the first live voice listeners heard, as Guns N' Roses' "Welcome to the Jungle" played in the background. The station officially kicked off the format change playing one of Nirvana's greatest hits, "All Apologies."

Its O.K. K-Rock, I forgive you.

Does Imus belong on satellite radio?

By now I'm sure you are all familiar with the controversy surrounding remarks made by Don Imus on his radio show, where he referred to the ladies on the Rutgers basketball team as "nappy-headed hos." Amid calls for his dismissal from the National Organization for Women and activists like Al Sharpton, Imus has apologized profusely and received a 2-week suspension from the network. All of this got me to thinking: Would Imus's show be better-suited for satellite radio where he won't subject to the rule of the FCC, and have more freedom to make obnoxious, ill-advised comments that are offensive on a multitude of levels?

Howard Stern, who defected to Sirius for greater editorial freedom (and a few hundred million dollars, had this to say about Imus's apology: "He's apologizing like a guy who got his first broadcasting job. He should have said, "F**k you, it's a joke."

Continue reading Does Imus belong on satellite radio?

Malakar bursts Stern's bubble

Last night's American Idol yielded two big shockers this morning: Sanjaya Malakar can sing and J.Lo may be splitting with her husband.

As J.Lo said at the beginning of the show "I think the key to any Latin thing is passion." Malakar, who sang "Bésame Mucho" delivered on that premise -- particularly with the Spanish vocals. And I guess that J.Lo is not getting that Latin thing from her husband -- Marc Anthony. MSNBC reports that she blames Anthony for her stalled career and his "controlling ways" -- and plans to divorce him.

But none of this matters. What's really important is that if Malakar can sing, he's no longer the worst. And who will Howard Stern pick to replace him?

Don Imus got off easy

Don Imus' boorish behavior would have gotten him fired long ago if he were in any other line of work.

After a firestorm of controversy, CBS Corp.(NYSE: CBS) and General Electric Co.'s (NYSE: GE) MSNBC yesterday decided to suspend the controversial radio host for two weeks for making racially insensitive comments about the Rutgers University women's basketball team.

What would happen to someone at your office who like Imus used the phrase "nappy-headed ho's?" Would people complain? Would the boss talk to them? Would they have a chat with human resources? If they continually showed that type of attitude, would they be fired?

Imus is lucky that he works in the media.

He tried to mend fences by apologizing at an almost Bill Clinton-like rate. He's apologized to the team, apologized to the Rev. Al Sharpton and would probably apologize to any African-American he meets on the street.

This is a pretty big deal.

Media and political bigshots are regular guests on "Imus in the Morning." Publishers send their top authors there to flog their books. It's kind of amusing that these people love Imus and hate his rival Howard Stern when the only difference between them is that Stern actually is witty.

Along with Stern, Imus has inspired a generation of shock jocks and talk show hosts who think that they can say whatever they want, whenever they want on the air. But instead of being provocative, most of them just sound boorish.

Imus is vowing to change the "tenor" of the show. I guess he deserves another chance, or is it the fifth one? I'm not sure.

American Idol broadcast live in India

So the controversy continues. I was researching the rules to American Idol in response to a comment I received from someone claiming to be a former employee of Fox TV that suggested there is a disclaimer regarding the voting and selection process at the end of the show in fine print. I could not find the disclaimer but I did find this on Wikipedia:

Is the Wikipedia info correct? Does AI air live in India? Are all the people cursing me up and down wrong for even suggesting that Indian call centers might be skewing the American Idol vote?

Let me state clearly that upon further thought I believe that this is far fetched, never the less, Sanjaya Malakar is still on the show and more talented singers are gone. Howard Stern, and the vote the worst crowd are having an impact. My original post was followed by Sunday Funnies: American Idol - Indian Idle, sharing some of the comments I received, then American Idol puzzle solved: Market Theory, considering a broader range of factors, and continuing with Amercan Idol or Survivor: It's for real.

From a business perspective, American Idol is probably getting higher ratings with Sanjaya then it would without. Hollywood is not new to controversy and only politics is more corrupt in my view, so who knows the real story? I have been accused of being racist for even suggesting that race is a factor. Well in business, I cannot leave out race or any other considerations that may influence a situation. I am not passing judgment, I am sharing an observation. Can you even discuss racial issues without being a racist in some peoples eyes? Last night Stephanie Edwards, one of the four "black divas" was voted off. She has superior talent to others and I do believe that vote splitting affected her support on the show and that one of the four white males will be in trouble next week for the same reason. This is not racist, but objective analysis of the real world.

Disclosure: I invest in international stocks and one of my favorites is ICICI Bank ADS (NYSE: IBN) one of India's largest private banks.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sirius XM is good for consumers

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) took a positive step toward getting regulators to get on board with its acquisition of rival XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ:XMSR).

If the merger happens -- I know it's a big if -- satellite radio will become more like cable television. People who want fewer channels will pay less than the $12.95 per month that they do now, the same if they want their current level of programming and more if they want more.

Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin is pledging not to raise prices. The arguments from Sen. Herb Kohl and other critics that the merger isn't good for consumers just don't make sense.

It's in the company's best interest to give the public great programming at a reasonable price. Satellite radio is far from a monopoly. People who are upset with Sirius or XM can plug in their iPods into their cars or listen to free radio.

I realize the National Association of Broadcasters is lobbying hard against the deal. NAB got into some hot water after our sister blog Engadget noticed that its anti-Sirius was looked very similar to Mastercard's well-known campaign.

Priceless.

Still, I am optimistic that a compromise will be worked out.

Sirius and XM will have to accept some sort of government regulation and satellite radio will survive.

Does Sanjaya owe his Idol success to Howard Stern?

First it was Indian call centers, then a snarky Web site, but now there's a new theory to explain the improbable American Idol sauces of Sanjaya Malakar: Howard Stern.

That's right. The King of All Media has called the hapless Malakar his "favorite" contestant and was encouraging listeners of his Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) show to vote for him. Stern's faux endorsement may have spared Malakar his deserved exit from America's most-watched show. He certainly isn't surviving on talent.

I'm sure that some Idol fans are fretting over the potential for Stern or other outside forces to corrupt the sanctity of the Idol vote. Those people need to get a life.

Don't feel too bad for Malakar. Once he gets voted off the show -- God willing -- he won't be hurting. There are probably agents lining up around the block to represent him. Some record executive will commit a crime against pop music and give him a recording contract making music fans question whether there is a God.

Continue reading Does Sanjaya owe his Idol success to Howard Stern?

Sirius is not XM

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) is simply eating XM Satellite Radio's (NASDAQ: XMSR) lunch. Mel Karmazin continues to plow forward while XM management wanders aimlessly.

Karmazin reiterated targets set in late 2006, expecting revenue to jump from $637 million in 2006 to $1.0 billion in 2007. Sirius also generated free cash flow, after capital expenditures, of $30 million for the 4th quarter -- a big accomplishment.

Karmazin also said, once again, that Sirius' growth from nascent business to $1.0 billion in revenue is the fastest growth in radio history.

What is more impressive is that while XM backed away from virtually all of its guidance for 2007 and pushed out much of its OEM growth to 2008, Sirius did not do the same. Chrysler will install Sirius in 40% of cars, Ford goes from 4 models to 22 models and Mercedes will install Sirius in two-thirds of its autos.

Not everything will be rosy. Sirius warned that data coming out regarding January 2007 comparisons with January 06, as year-over-year comps will be weak because of such strong comparisons last year due to net adds resulting from Howard Stern. Starting in February, the comps will begin to improve.

Also, churn will jump up to 2.0%-2.4% as some OEM deals reach their anniversaries, up from 1.6%.

All told, stay focused on Sirius. Content of Stern, NBA, NASCAR plus lots of other stuff appear to be driving subscriber adds. Do not run away from this industry due to XM's weak results.

Sirius, XM merger proves content is king

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) acquisition of XM Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) -- sorry it's not a merger -- is all about content.

As I've argued before, the real power of the combined company is in the programming. Theoretically, subscribers could listen to everything from Howard Stern to Oprah Winfrey to Bob Dylan for about $13 a month. Will people pay? You bet.

People buy access to Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE:TWX) HBO. Both Dow Jones & Co. (NYSE:DJ) and the New York Times Co. (NYSE:NYT) have attracted paid subscribers to their Web sites. National Public Radio survives on the generosity of its listeners.

If the content is good, people don't mind paying for it.

But for the Sirius-XM deal to be successful, the combined companies will need to convince the public that they are getting something unique. Having personalities like Howard Stern and Oprah Winfrey helps, but it isn't going to be enough to retain listeners and attract advertisers.

The companies will need to invest in programs that aren't hosted by huge celebrities. More shows should be done live. They will have to streamline their channels. How many classic rock, heavy metal, country and 70s retro stations does the world really need? Some of the talk and entertainment channels will also need to be axed.

Music will be the biggest strength for the combined companies. Satellite radio offers something for every conceivable taste without annoying commercial interruptions. Terrestrial radio can't compete. If the combined companies can leverage their strength here and improve their programming, there will be little to stop them.

Sirius, XM isn't a merger of equals

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (Nasdaq:SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Inc. (Nasdaq:XMSR) are billing their deal as a $13 billion merger of equals. That's not quite the case.

Sirius is buying XM for about $4.57 billion, according to Bloomberg News. XM investors will receive 4.6 shares of Sirius stock for each share they own. The deal values XM shares at $17.02 a share, a 22 percent premium over its latest closing price.

Mel Karmazin, the CEO of Sirius, will run the company. His counterpart at XM Hugh Panero will leave. Karmazin, who attracted high-profile talent like Howard Stern and Martha Stewart, clearly won the battle for satelite radio supremacy. But if he doesn't attract significantly more advertising revenue, he will lose the war.

Until now, advertisers haven't really warmed to satellite radio. In fact, they aren't too keen on the medium period. TNS Media Intelligence estimates that radio advertising spending will rise 1.7 percent this year, which is only slightly better than the 0.9 percent decline for newspapers. Meanwhile Internet display advertising is forecasted to jump 13 percent.

The commercials on Sirius (where I am a subscriber) are awful. They seem like the types of spots that you would hear on an AM station in the middle of the night. I can't speak to XM. In their latest quarters, XM and Sirius got a miniscule $17 million from advertising.

Continue reading Sirius, XM isn't a merger of equals

Sirius without Stern

A great deal has been made of the $500 million deal that Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) gave Howard Stern. Since it is a five year deal, it is safe to assume that it has added at least $100 million in costs to Sirius's P&L each year (with bonuses, perhaps more).

But, what if Sirius had grown only as fast as XM from the time the Stern rumors began and the deal was announced in the fall of 2004. The official deal was made public on October 6, 2004.

At the end of the second quarter 2004, Sirius had 480,000 subscribers. XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) had 2.1 million. At the end of 2006, Sirius had 6.024 million subscribers and XM had 7.625 million.

If XM's growth rate is applied to Sirius, the No.2 satellite radio company might not even be in business. From the second quarter of 2004 to the end of 2006, XM's subscriber base increased 3.6x. Sirius' figure was 12.5x. Applying XM's growth rate to Sirius base at the end of Q2 04, and Sirius would have 1.73 million subscribers. It would probably not be a viable operation at all.

Has Stern added 4 million subscribers to the Sirius base? Maybe not. But, the lion's share of the difference in the growth of the two companies has to be attributed to him.

If so, he may be the only reason Sirius is in business.

Priceless.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

XM's new GPS device -- don't expect it to improve sales

Once, when canoeing in the middle of an interior lake (after two very long portages), a lightning storm began. It was mortally dangerous. Someone on a campsite nearby died from a lighting strike during the same storm.

Why am I telling you this? Well, with all the excitement of the past couple of days at CES and MacWorld, especially the launch of Apple Computer Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone, almost no one paid attention to XM Satellite Radio Holding Inc.'s (NASDAQ:XMSR) new gadgets that were introduced at CES on Monday. Specifically, I'm talking about the Bushnell Onix 400, a device that has a GPS system and tunes to XM's real-time local weather.

The device will only be available in the summer, but had I had the opportunity and given my past experience, would I have bought it? I'm not sure. First, at $499 it's a little pricey. Second, while the device may help when I'm out there in the wild, it also in a way would defeat the purpose of being out there in the wild. Third, how often would such a device be needed? On the few occasions I go camping?

Well, I guess that it's no wonder this announcement didn't get much attention. The other devices it introduced aren't so innovative either. I also doubt Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) will come out with any groundbreaking devices at CES.

While XM recently failed to reach the lower end of its subscriber projection, Sirius is paying Howard Stern a bonus for having 2 million more subscribers than originally forecast. However, both companies' retail sales have been lacking, and the devices they each offer haven't improved much to provide new incentives. At least as far as retail sales are concerned, I expect more of the same.

And if XM goes mobile with a cell phone from Cingular Wireless and Alltel Wireless, what's to prevent Apple from going satellite next?

Sirius is cash-flow positive!

Today, Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) announced that it would report positive free cash flow for the fourth quarter. However, the CEO also said that they faced weaker than expected sales post-Thanksgiving, and that they faced tough comps because of all the new subscribers generated by the addition of Howard Stern around this time last year.

It might be wise for investors to consider a pass on Sirius for right now. With a market of $1.4 billion, a formidable competitor in XM, and a lack of strong profitability, the stock is probably risky for many portfolies. Although it comes with a small share price, this is actually a very big company. Satellite radio may be the future but there is no guarantee that Sirius is the future, or that satellite radio will be especially profitable for the companies providing it.

SIRIUS resorting to "free Howard Stern" for 2 days

SIRIUS Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is going to try the "give it away free for a tease" strategy to lure new users. The SIRIUS 75 channel roster will be available as SIRIUS Internet Radio for a subscription price of $12.95 per month, and SIRIUS is going to offer up Howard Stern's two channels for free for two days, October 25 and October 26.

Scott Greenstein, SIRIUS' President, Entertainment and Sports, said, "Howard being available live for the first time ever to a worldwide audience is an unprecedented event in the history of radio. Listeners can now get what they have been missing: Howard at the top of his game and more than 75 channels of The Best Radio on Radio. It's now The Best Radio on the Internet."

Will giving Howard Stern away for free for a couple days lure in the subscribers? We'll have to see what the company says and what the shows are like on those days. Doing the freebies can always be a toss-up as far as a business strategy, and you can bet that if the company starts doing this too much that Wall Street will chime in by saying they are having to dilute themselves to bring in additional subscribers.

What do you think that would do to subscriber acquisition costs?

So far traders don't seem to care, nor do they seem concerned. Shares of SIRIUS were flat at $3.88 on thin volume, and now SIRI is down 0.7% at $3.85 on only 10 million shares.

Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Sirius gets cut down in size

Sirius shares lost 18% of their value in the quarter ending September 29.

Who would have thought it? Sirius has made announcements revising its year-end subscriber count up, while rival XM has said that it will not make its original forecasts for 2006 growth. The Howard Stern bandwagon still seems to be working well for Sirius, and XM has no (tried) equivalent star.

Sirius is still being hurt by huge losses and a mountain of debt. For the first half of the year, the satellite radio company had $277 million in revenue and operating losses of $953 million. The company also has $1.1 billion in debt. Based on Morningstar's (subscription required) discounted cashflow model, the fair market value of Sirius stock is only $1.50. That's a big difference from where it trades now at $3.97, which is already 50% below the stock's 52-week high.

Two other concerns dog Sirius. One is that with its current debt load, if it misses its revenue and subscriber targets, it may have to go back to the market for more money -- dilution. The other is that portable music devices have evolved since Sirius got into the business in the 1990s when its stock traded above $40. The Apple iPod, Microsoft Zune, and a number of other portable music players have been adapted to play in the car. Old line radio companies like Clear Channel are now sending out better digital signals and streaming their content to PCs. At some point, that streaming system may work for other devices.

Sirius has competition, and it's is more than just XM.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

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