Analyst Upgrades

• Deere (DE) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• American Eagle (AEO) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• FedEx (FDX) and Shaw (SJR) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Superior Energy (SPN) and Rowan Cos. (RDC) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Tesoro (TSO) to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• Mechel (MTL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• SunPower (SPWRA), LDK Solar (LDK) and First Solar (FSLR) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.

Banks could face another mortgage crisis, according to Barron's, if they are forced to buy back subprime, Alt-A and options adjusted home mortgage securities they've sold prior to the financial crisis, mostly as mortgage-backed securities. Already some buyers, like Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC), have enjoyed some success returning defective mortgages. And this could be just the beginning.

The banks, of course, are fighting vigorously to fend off these demands. As usual, the courts will have to settle the matter. The focus of the debate seems to be founded on the issue of representations and warranties that may or may not have been violated.

There are no surprises among the 11 banks mentioned. It is the conspicuous absence of names you might expect to find that is.

Analyst Upgrades

• Wells Fargo upgraded Accenture (ACN) to outperform from market perform following the company's Q4 results, citing improved tone and increased visibility. The firm raised its target range for shares to $51 to $53 from $41 to $44.
• Macquarie upgraded FirstMerit (FMER) to outperform from neutral and has a $21 price target on the stock. The firm cites FirstMerit's strong fundamentals and competitive advantage for the upgrade.
• Macquarie transferred coverage on Marshall & Ilsley (MI) with a neutral from an underperform based on improved risk/reward.
• Eaton (ETN) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• HSBC (HBC) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Walgreen (WAG) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Upgrades

• Auriga upgraded Leap Wireless (LEAP) to buy from hold following the company's Q2 results and analyst day, citing valuation, longer-term potential for consolidation and prospects for business improvements. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target for shares to $16 from $19.
• Goldman upgraded Barnes & Noble (BKS) to neutral from sell following the company's announcement to explore strategic alternatives. The firm raised its price target to $15 from $12.
• RBC Capital upgraded ESCO Technologies (ESE) to sector perform from underperform following the better-than-expected Q3 report. The firm raised its price target to $30 from $28.
• MetLife (MET) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• HSBC (HBC) was upgraded to outperform from underperform at CLSA.

The U.S. stock market is closed in observance of Independence day, which gives us a great opportunity to examine a few stocks with ties to the 4th of July.

This first of this three-part series will start by comparing investment opportunities in the United States -- home of the authors of the Declaration of Independence -- with those across the pond in the United Kingdom -- whose monarch was the recipient of that declaration. Then we'll then take a look at a few of the stocks that help us maintain our freedom as we dive into the U.S. defense industry. Finally, we'll take a look at stocks that benefit from the partying and picnicking that are so much a part of any 4th of July celebration.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Southern Copper (SCCO) to buy from hold to reflect valuation and positive near-term catalysts. The firm raised its target for shares to $38 from $35.
• JMP Securities upgraded Ultimate Software (ULTI) to outperform from market perform. The firm cites the company's expanding employee base for the upgrade. The firm has a $40 target on the stock.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Aeropostale (ARO) to neutral from underweight following the company's Q4 results and raised its target for shares to $31 from $24.
• Kennametal (KMT) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman.
• Lifetime Brands (LCUT) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Barrington.
• Volvo (VOLVY) was upgraded to overweight from underweight at JPMorgan.

With sovereign debt crises in Europe and record deficits in the US, speculation in gold is on the rise. Add to the mix, record low interest rates in the US and speculators are jumping back into gold. Let's look first at the bullish side:

• Billionaire, George Soros, increased his holdings in the SPDR gold trust by 152%.
• Bloomberg analysts predict prices will increase to $1,300 per ounce this year.

Export orders were on the rise in October in China, suggesting a strengthening recovery and an opportunity to cut back on stimulus spending. The manufacturing measure grew at its fastest rate in the past year and a half, according to the HSBC (NYSE: HBC) purchasing managers' index. It increased to a seasonally adjusted 55.4 from 55 in September.

If you're looking for a reason behind the gain, it's all in the flow of capital. In addition to the government's economic stimulus package, $1.27 trillion in new loans were written to help deliver the country from the global financial crisis.

Do you feel good about $173 billion of your tax money helping to keep American International Group (NYSE: AIG) from going bust? If you made the decisions that put AIG at death's door you might be. But the odds are pretty good that you had absolutely nothing to do with AIG's failure and received not a penny of compensation during the time when its executives were reporting profits -- and getting millions in compensation that they're not paying back now that it's losing money.

That's one of the reasons why I was arguing on KCRW's To the Point that the U.S. ought to disclose who is getting the taxpayer money that goes to AIG. After all, they just got another $30 billion this week after reporting history's biggest quarterly loss of $61 billion. A professor on the program suggested that we should not disclose the names of the recipients because it would threaten the stability of the financial system. I thought this professor's argument was unpersuasive -- and now we'll get a chance to see who was right.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) was upgraded following its Q1 release and guidance.
• America's Car-Mart Inc. (NASDAQ: CRMT) posted higher earnings in Q3 and same-store sales growth.
• AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) was upgraded by an analysts who felt that consensus estimates are beatable.
• Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE BRK.A) suffered a big profit decline, its fifth straight quarterly decline.
• Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) posted horrible Q4 results as the values of its portfolio shrank.

In the infamous words of Rod Roddy, HSBC Holdings (NYSE: HBC) come on down! You're next on the Earnings are Falling (or The Price is Wrong if you like).

The banking firm announced this morning that its 2008 profit fell some 70%, which is prompting the firm to halt most of its U.S. consumer lending business. HSBC's net profit fell to $5.73 billion from $19.13 billion a year ago. In North America, HSBC took a goodwill charge of $10.6 billion stemming from the restructure of the region. Taking this charge out of the equation, HSBC's profit dropped 18% to $19.9 billion. Experts had expected a pretax profit of roughly $20 billion.

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is a dog of a brokerage house and a broken company. Yet, every time Wall Street turns around, some other financial company is considering investing in it. According to Reuters, "HSBC and the Chinese bank, along with top U.S. hedge funds, are competing with Korea Development Bank."

The fascination with Lehman is fascinating. While it may have a strong money management arm, the value of its commercial property portfolio is falling apart. It has the same kind of toxic mortgage-backed paper on its balance sheet as the one that plagues the balance of the financial industry. If they have any sense, top managers at Lehman will be getting out.

If investors are right about Lehman, the company may not make it. The stock trades at $16, down from a 52-week high of almost $68. With a market cap of only $11 billion, a $5 billion investment could push shares to below $9.

Credit markets are supposed to get worse this year. At least that is what the newspapers say. Lehman is as likely to be further damaged by that as any other large financial firm.

A few outside investors see something in Lehman that the markets don't. Perhaps they would be willing to share that with the rest of the world.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) blamed another big loss on housing and credit markets.
• Barrett Business Services Inc. (NASDAQ: BBSI) beat Q2 estimates and raised its Q3 guidance.
• Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) Q2 loss was three times more than analysts had predicted.
• Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) big loss was due to loan write-offs, but revenue rose 10%.
• HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) reported a drop in profit and warned of more difficulties to come.
• InterContinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) posted Q2 results that were in line with Wall Street expectations.
• Marvel Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: MVL) posted strong Q2 results on Iron Man and Incredible Hulk movies.
• Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY) widened its Q2 net loss as revenues slumped.
• News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) posted strong Q4 results on asset gains, and warned of slower growth.
• Playboy Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: PLA) posted a worse-than-expected Q2 loss despite cost controls.
• Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) healthy Q4 and full-year results beat analysts' expectations.
• RadiSys Corp. (NASDAQ: RSYS) easily beat Q2 expectations on strong demand for wireless products.
• Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) net income slumped on declining AOL subscriber fees (see transcript).
• Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) beat Q3 earnings expectations and raised its full-year guidance.
• Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI) posted dismal results and suspended its dividend.

Stock futures were lower Monday morning ahead of a wave of economic data, a tropical storm and, most important, the Federal Reserve meeting and decision Tuesday.

Before the opening bell, the economic calendar includes personal income and spending data for June, as well as the core PCE deflator, an inflation gauge the Federal Reserve eyes closely. Factory orders for June are also due after the open. Oil prices were steady near $125 a barrel Monday as the market kept on eye on both tropical storm Edouard that could turn into a hurricane and hit oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, and on further developments in Iran. But most of trading today will likely be affected by expectations the Fed will not change interest rates Tuesday, and issue a neutral statement with the focus changing to the weak economy.

Bank troubles aren't over. HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HBC) reported a significant profit drop as costs for bad U.S. mortgage loans mounted. "HSBC Chairman Stephen Green said the first half of 2008 saw one of the most difficult financial markets for decades." As long as the housing market slump continues, and before the bottom can be seen, no doubt the financial sector will continue to suffer. And given that only about 40% on the $1 trillion expected writedowns were taken, the challenges for financials are far from over. For now, HBC shares are dropping about 3% in premarket trading.

Will investors soon get over worries about losses from subprime mortgages? As Doug indicated this morning, the answer for now is "nope." Today overseas markets are definitely paying attention to renewed fears about credit markets. The Dow was down over 56 points yesterday and today, Asian market sectors including banking, brokerage and insurance took a plunge as well. Francis Lun with Hong Kong's Fulbright Securities told MarketWatch, "After the drop on Wall Street, people are wary about further write-downs related to subprime mortgages."

With earnings season just kicking off today with Alcoa's second quarter results after the close, should we also be bracing for worse-than-expected reports from banks and brokerages? Today hat's the sentiment in Hong Kong and other Asian markets, where the Hang Seng index fell 3.2% in overnight trading and the Nikkei lost 2.5%.

Asian regional markets were sitting on the same worries pressuring U.S. markets, according to David Cohen with Action Economics. He posited that most Asian indexes were under pressure "from the same forces weighing upon markets globally, hostage to oil prices, and fears of stagflation." This morning at least, investors are bracing for U.S. markets to get worse before they get better.