Analyst Upgrades

• Research In Motion (RIMM) to buy from sell and Gap (GPS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Archer Daniels (ADM) and Airgas (ARG) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• NCR Corp. (NCR) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Valero Energy (VLO) to top pick from sector perform and Western Refining (WNR) to outperform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• Fred's (FRED) to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan.
• Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Willis Group (WSH) and Brown & Brown (BRO) to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) to strong buy from market perform at Raymond James.

Host Hotels (HST - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company reported earnings this morning, posting fiscal-Q4 funds from operations of $177 million, or 26 cents per share, on revenue of $1.49 billion. Analysts had forecast FFO of 27 cents per share on revenue of $1.45 billion. HST also forecast 2011 FFO of 87 to 92 cents per share, compared to analysts' forecasts of 96 cents per share. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HST.

This morning, HST opened at $19.10. So far today the stock has hit a high of $19.37 and a low of $18.99. As of 12:15, HST is trading at $19.06, down $0.60 (-3.0%). The chart for HST looks neutral and S&P gives HST a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

We're well into the quarter now and the earnings reports continue to roll out.

This week, Dell (DELL) highlights a handful of results from tech companies. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for fourth-quarter earnings of 37 cents per share from the one of the world's top PC purveyors. That's up from 28 cents per share during the same period a year ago. Dell also is expected to report its revenue grew 5.5% year over year to $15.7 billion, for the three months that ended in January.

Analyst Upgrades

• Sapient (SAPE) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Kroger (KR) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Harman (HAR) to overweight from neutral and Deutsche Bank (DB) to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• Savient (SVNT) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• LabCorp (LH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Optimer Pharm (OPTR) and Landstar System (LSTR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Essex Property Trust (ESS) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Tyson Foods (TSN) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• Host Hotels (HST) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• SPX Corp. (SPW) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• Union Pacific (UNP) and Polycom (PLCM) were upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Time Warner Cable (TWC) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
• LaSalle Hotel (LHO) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Graco (GGG) was upgraded to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Valley National (VLY) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Credit Suisse (CS) was upgraded to hold from sell at RBS.
• U.S. Bancorp (USB) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Penn National (PENN) and Riverbed (RVBD) were upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Goodrich (GR) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Amazon.com (AMZN) upgraded to buy from average at Caris.

Options traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (HST). Traders plowed into 2,416 new call option contracts -- 5.39 times the average volume -- on the stock on Tuesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 96% of the trades came in on the ask price.

Host Hotels has been consolidating in what looks like a bullish pennant for the past few months. The stock closed Tuesday at $13.97, down 3.85% during the past month.

Option traders also look like they are preparing for a bearish move on Leucadia National Corp. (LUK). Traders bought 1,504.00 new put option contracts -- 5.88 times the average volume -- on the stock. A full 100% of these trades also came in on the ask price.

The stock closed Tuesday at $22.69, up 5% during the past month.

Analyst Upgrades

• UBS upgraded UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) to buy from hold based on recent weakness and leverage to a recovery. The firm raised its price target on UPS to $74 from $72 and on FedEx to $100 from $97.
• Bernstein upgraded Medicis (MRX) to outperform from market perform based on valuation and said the company has been executing well over the past few months. The firm has a $28 price target on the stock.
• Citigroup upgraded Weingarten Realty (WRI) to buy from hold, citing valuation and the company's improved balance sheet. The firm maintains a $24 price target for shares.
• Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) were upgraded to market perform from underperform at BMO Capital.
• NextEra Energy (NEE) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Baird.
• Nokia (NOK) was upgraded to neutral from reduce at WestLB.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) to Buy from Hold on valuation and the company's exposure to a potential upturn in international drilling. The firm raised its target on shares to $80 from $56.
• UBS upgraded Allegheny Tech (NYSE: ATI) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $43 from $31 and believes the end of jet engine and other destocking will result in an initial recovery into 2010, even before an order ramp into 2011.
• Merriman upgraded Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) to Buy from Neutral based on the favorable FDA panel outcome and set a $30-$33 target range on the stock. Baird upgraded Acorda to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $28 from $24. Following the panel review, Baird expects Amaya to be approved in 1H10 and would be buyers into the mid/high $20s.
• Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• PG&E (NYSE: PCG) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
• Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Hold from Sell as it believes the company's second half of 2009 is tracking better than expected due to retailer restocking. Deutsche raised its target on shares to $33 from $15 but thinks Garmin's long-term trends remain unfavorable.
• Goldman upgraded Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) to Buy from Neutral citing potential EPS improvement driven by the Home division. Fortune Brands price target to $49 from $45. Note that the firm downgraded General Mills to Neutral from Buy.
• Oppenheimer upgraded FPIC Insurance (NASDAQ: FPIC) to Outperform from Perform to reflect the company's acquisition of Advocate MD and management's commitment to share repurchases. The firm set a $49 price target on the stock.
• PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG) and Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN) were upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• Synovus (NYSE: SNV) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

I remember Toronto during SARS. As one of the harder hit areas, it was not a happy place. It was the end of winter, but that miserable, cold winter just didn't want to end. People walked the streets in a gloomy haze, afraid to take the subway and giving dirty looks to anyone brazen enough to cough in public. Worse, I couldn't even visit a friend in the hospital. All things considered though, in global pandemic terms, it was over relatively quickly. Let's hope swine flu will be the same.

In the meantime, let's put on our investors hats and see what's in store for some stocks:

Travel and tourist stocks
This is one of the worst hit areas, especially airlines, as people may cancel their travel plans. For example, AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) traded over 9 percent lower an hour after the open. Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) was down over 15 percent. In fact UBS downgraded these airlines and hotels this morning: AMR, Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL), Host Hotels and Resorts (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO), Marriott (NYSE: MAR), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA), US Airways (NYSE: LCC). Carnival Cruise Lines (NYSE: CCL) also declined considerably. Best to stay away from the sector.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded MICROS Systems (NASDAQ:MCRS) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's cost cutting is running ahead of Street expectations. The firm raised its target on shares to $25 from $18.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes companies will beat EPS estimates given lower commodity costs, focus on cost controls, and reduced drag of inefficient, new restaurants on unit level margins. Additionally, they believe reduced mortgage payments from refinancing will incrementally help traffic.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation following the company's Q1 results. The firm raised its target price to $15.
• American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) was upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC and to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Micron (NYSE:MU) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT), Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) and Marriott (NYSE: MAR) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation and indications that negative sentiment has reached a bottom.
• Citigroup upgraded Torchmark (NYSE: TMK) to Buy from Hold as they find the valuation attractive and think management can grow earnings and book value in 2009/2010. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered their target price to $37 from $45.
• ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) was added to Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
• Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was upgraded at Natixis to Buy from Hold.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) lowered its Q3 earnings forecast below analysts' estimates.
• Advanced Medical Optics Inc. (NYSE: EYE) lowered guidance led to an analyst's downgrade.
• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) fell well short of Q3 estimates on lower demand and falling prices.
• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) Q3 profits fell more than estimated, and it cut its dividend.
• Brunswick Corp. (NYSE: BC) forecast a full-year loss and accelerated layoffs.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) Q4 earnings just missed estimates thought revenues were up.
• Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) earnings results and growth prospects impressed one analyst.
• eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) earnings may be diluted by its acquisition of Bill Me Later.
• Ecolab Inc. (NYSE: ECL) earnings prospects led to an analyst's downgrade.
• General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) results were in line with low expectations, and dividends will be sustained.
• General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) earnings prospects for 2009 impress Jim Cramer.
• Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE: HST) Q3 earnings tumbled while revenue slipped.
• IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM) surprised Wall Street by offering strong Q3 preliminary results.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Safeway (NYSE: SWY) to Hold from Underperform on valuation as they believe the company's pricing pressure and sluggish sales trends are now priced in. The firm raised its target to $23.50 from $21.
  
• Merrill upgraded Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to Buy from Underperform citing attractive dividend yield and stabilizing businesses.
  
• Banc of America upgraded shares of Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) to Neutral from Sell and raised APOL's target to $60 from $48 on valuation as they see a balanced risk/reward at current levels.
• Nucor (NYSE: NUE) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
  
• Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS) and Symantec (NASDAQ: SYMC) were upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to Market Perform from Underperform.

Analyst downgrades:

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new earnings seasons when it reports third quarter results on Tuesday. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer, which celebrated its 120th anniversary with the launch of its website, is expected to post a profit of 54 cents per share, down 15.6% from the same quarter of last year, on revenue of $7.2 billion, down 2.1%. While Alcoa has tended to fall short of estimates in recent quarters, in the second quarter it did offer a positive surprise of almost 3%. Its long-term earnings per share growth forecast is 14.8%, a little less than the S&P 500, and analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average recommend buying Alcoa, and have for more than 90 days. Shares reached a new 52-week low last week, and are down 48.9% from a year ago.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is also expected to report a slip in earnings this week. Analysts anticipate that the conglomerate will post a third-quarter profit of 45 cents per share, down just 6.3% from a year ago, on revenue of $47.7 billion, which is up 12.1%. GE has tended to eke out small positive surprises in recent quarters, by less than 1% in the second quarter. GE's long-term earnings per share growth forecast is only 11.0%, which is less than the sector average and the S&P 500. The consensus recommendation has recently swung to hold GE, but Warren Buffett has bought in to the tune of $3 billion. GE also reached a new 52-week low last week as the markets tumbled. GE shares are down 48.1% from a year ago.