When it comes to the hard drive industry, there has rarely been an example of more cutthroat competition, price drops, mergers and hard-toothed business practices in a single industry. There were over 70 hard drive companies in the late 70s and 80s -- and now you can count the number of companies on a couple of hands. Good reading on this subject is
The Innovator's Dilemma.
With industry leader Seagate Technology (NYSE:STX) buying competitor Maxtor in 2004, there are now just a few companies in this space -- Seagate, Hitachi, Western Digital, Samsung, Toshiba and some smaller players. What the market forgets sometimes is that the Internet, DVRs, iPods, and a myriad of other things could not exist without the hard drive -- it has the cost, speed and flexibility to meet these products' demands.
But hold your applause -- while Seagate CEO Bill Watkins says that traditional hard drive technology may be co-existing with Flash technology (chips, not spinning disks),
Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) has released a flash-based hard drive for use in laptops and other similar devices. Will flash-based storage technology ever be as cheap and flexible as those spinning drives inside the PC you're reading this post on? Who knows -- except maybe Sandisk and memory leaders like Hynix and Samsung. By 2010, we'll probably see if co-existence or replacement of one technology with another happens.
Place your bets.
[Disclosure: I own STX shares as of 1-4-06]
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