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What can we learn from the Beanie Baby bubble?

There was a very interesting piece written by Karen Blumenthal in The Wall Street Journal yesterday. Blumenthal takes a look at the Beanie Baby craze and how we can all learn from the "Beanie Baby Bubble." Blumenthal has studied bubbles and has determined that there is a pattern that drives these economic phenomena - be it Beanie Babies, real estate, or "Dot Coms."

Blumenthal contends that bubbles need these characteristics: fertile ground, people getting on board, ignoring warnings, greed, and an after-party. Think about the fertile ground, when Beanie Babies first came out, there was a fertile ground. Kids, parents, and grandparents were looking for a new toy, one that could be both a cherished heirloom and a cute adornment for mantles, dressers, and the back window of Cadillacs. The ground was fertile, and this group quickly jumped on board the Beanie Baby train and pushed the prices to a point where some people would pay upwards of $100 for a $5 bean-bag animal.

Continue reading What can we learn from the Beanie Baby bubble?

Starbucks plays next 'card' in music business

Beginning next month Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) is planning to distribute 50 million free digital songs from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes Store in promotion of the new iTunes wireless service that will be debuting in select markets, reported Billboard.biz this afternoon. Some may say that this is not a good sign, but it is certainly a logical one, at least in terms of Starbucks' move into the music business full time this year.

The step had to be expected, given the huge success Starbucks has had with its initial forays into the music business. Consider the windfall the company enjoyed with Paul McCartney, who put out his latest album on Starbucks' own Hear Music label. Hopes are high that the new Joni Mitchell album from Hear Music will enjoy similar success after it is released tomorrow.

Then the promotion begins in the wake of the recent Starbucks-Apple deal to allow "iPhone and new iPod Touch users the ability to download songs playing in a Starbucks shop directly to their portable devices." Patrons will be able to download that hot tune directly onto their laptops.

Although the service might appear to be a ploy to bring in consumers and drive coffee sales, it should also be noted for what it is: promotion of new Apple products, its iTunes Store, and Starbucks' own Hear Music. CD sales are never going to come back, and Starbucks, in all its coffee-fueled expansion, apparently can see the future of music. It's all so synergistic. Credit Starbucks with doing it right.

Apple outlook: Why AAPL is on its way to $200

So much has been written about Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) as we witnessed the long lines to buy the iPhone on June 29. Numbers were circulating that Apple sold 700,000 units of the new, revolutionary device in the first weekend. Apple has yet to confirm that, but the anecdotal evidence is certainly pointing toward blow-out numbers. Apple stated a goal of 10 million units sold by year end 2008, now I am hearing from several sources that the goal will be raised to 13-14 million. What does all this mean for the stock and its march to $200?

Apple is such a unique company because it transcends the typical technology company profile. With its massive retail store system, 180 strong, Apple has DIRECT contact with its customers: soup to nuts, it controls the sale. Apple controls not only the principal purchases of iPhones, iPods, Macs, etc., but controls the accessory sales and is building its own database of customer names and critical information. That list is worth its weight in gold. It's called future add-on sales with very low sales and marketing expenditures.

With all the moving parts to the Apple story, analysts intuitively know that forward numbers are quite conservative and going higher. The question is do we wait until July 25 for the release of the June quarter results or take a gander right here, right now? The June quarter consensus estimates call for revenues of $5.28 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72 versus last year's June results of $4.3 billion and EPS of $0.54. For the September 30 fiscal year 2007, expectations are for total revenues of $23.7 billion and EPS of $3.56. September 30, 2008 fiscal year expectations call for revenues of $29.2 billion and EPS of $4.13.

Let me give you my prediction and projections.


Continue reading Apple outlook: Why AAPL is on its way to $200

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 04:40 AM

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