Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is reporting its fiscal third quarter financial results Monday, July 21, after the close. The question is not only what Apple will report, but also how the Street will react, and most important, is it a buy ahead of earnings?
In terms of numbers, according to Thompson Financial's survey of analysts, Apple is expected to report net income of $972.6 million, or $1.08 per share, on sales of $7.4 billion. That's an 18.9% profit growth and a 37% sales growth.
Investors will be interested in the following:
iPhone sales numbers for Q3 may not interest investors that much, as the new 3G iPhone was released in fiscal Q4, and that is expected to be the main driver of iPhone sales going forward. The launch, despite its technical glitches was very successful, but investors might be concerned over Apple's ability to supply the demand. Already German and many U.S. stores have experienced shortages.
The new Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is even a bigger hit than analysts had expected. During its debut weekend, about a million units of the phone that can do everything but your taxes were sold. This number is already higher than earlier estimates from today Doug McIntyre has posted. Even Apple's prickly Chief Executive Steve Jobs was impressed.
"iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend," he said in a press release issued this morning. "
It took 74 days to sell the first one million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world."
Indeed, diehard geeks camped out and around Apple and AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) stores to be among the first to get their hands on the sleek new phone. A 22-year-old college student from New Zealand named Jonny Gladwell was the first to purchase the mother of all gadgets. He waited outside his Vodafone store for 60 hours, according to Vnunet.com. His parents must be proud (or horrified).
What makes this even more amazing is that many Apple fans are fuming over technical glitches and shortages of the phone their lives will not be complete without. Gizmodo dubbed this the iPocalypse. Mitch Wagner of Information Week argues that Apple has got some fence-mending to do with customers who clearly expected better.
Sirius had an odd way of expressing how it would save money next year. According to the company, "Total synergies, net of the costs to achieve such synergies, for the combined company are expected to be approximately $400 million in 2009." The firm also said it expected positive free cash flow.
All of that good news sent Sirius down almost 9% to $1.91. Volume was heavy at over 35 million shares, so the selling turned into a stampede.
Sirius forgot to mention the one number that Wall St. really wants to see which is what it thinks the revenue for the merger company will hit for 2009. Without that, it is impossible to determine whether any of the cash flow numbers are believable.
Conceding that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPod will be the digital music player of choice for the foreseeable future, online music downloading service Rhapsody is rolling out a $50 million marketing effort to convince iPod users currently using iTunes to make the switch to Rhapsody. Partner sites include Yahoo, Verizon Wireless and iLike, and the downloads will be in the mp3 format so they can be played on iPods.
Rhapsody is a joint venture of Real Networks and Viacom, so it's one of the few online music providers that has the muscle to compete with Apple. But I doubt that they'll be able to. In just a few years, Apple has made itself the biggest seller of music in the country, and sales of music downloads grew about 35% in the most recent quarter, according to the company's 10-Q.
iTunes seems to be pretty entrenched, and I just can't see anything compelling coming from Rhapsody that would motivate anyone to switch from iTunes. Rhapsody vice president Neil Smith told Reuters that "We're no longer competing with iPod. We're embracing it."
But now they're competing with iTunes, and consumers seems to have overwhelmingly embraced that. You really have to question Rhapsody's -- and every other also-ran mp3 seller's -- reason for existing.
Rhapsody, a music download service owned by Real Networks (NASDAQ: RNWK) and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), will make yet another run at Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes. According toReuters, "Digital music seller Rhapsody is launching a $50 million marketing assault on Apple's iTunes, offering songs online and via partners including Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Verizon Wireless."
Why the venture thinks it will have real success is anyone's guess. Downloading to Verizon Wireless phones is not exactly the kind of novelty that is likely to draw customers. The service will have one important new feature, though. Rhapsody subscribers have not been able to play their music on iTunes. Under the new push, that will change.
Memo to Rhapsody: The horse has already left the barn. Keeping the service off of the iPod for so long has helped iTunes move into a unassailable position.
Real Networks, which dominated the multimedia market with its Real Player from the late 1990s until about five years ago, was slaughtered by Apple when it offered a device coupled to a music store with the launch of the iPod.
There is no catching up now. The race is over.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one of the great stories of corporate America and the stock market. Under the leadership and genius of Steven Jobs, Apple is emerging as the premier technology growth company of this decade and the next. In the past five years the stock has rocketed from $9 to the current $175, and yet the story is actually stronger than ever before.
Apple has three major legs of growth in its arsenal and a distribution system that is second to none. The products of Apple are both cool and revolutionary. The 2002 introduction of the iPod defined the MP3 player space. Apple has sold over 150 million units as of March 2008 and commands over 70% of the market share. Many iPod owners are on their 3rd and 4th units, so the actual penetration of addressable customers has been barely scratched. The newer versions include touch screen and of course can store up to 20,000 songs and numerous movies and pictures.
The Mac computer has been re-engineered these past couple of years and is now the rage of the personal computer market. The new Mac is beginning to enter the traditional enterprise sector while maintaining its dominance in the consumer sector. The Leopard operating system became available in mid-2007 to rave reviews. Apple is taking market share in the competitive personal computer sector while maintaining its pricing structure. The company doesn't compete on price but offers such superior functionality that buyers do not mind paying full retail price. The attendant software programs are also seeing a resurgence and also carry high margins.
I want to add Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to my portfolio. I've been thinking about it for a while. I blew the opportunity of the most recent pullback. But that's in the past. So, what should I do now?
I'm a little reticent about buying Apple at these levels. Why? Is it some fundamental reason? Some overly technical reason? Well, it's more the latter than the former, but to be quite honest, it's mostly a gut feeling. I'm worried that the stock is going to flounder around throughout the dog days of summer. Yesterday's closing price of $176.84 is comfortably away from the 52-week high of $202.96, and it is well above the 52-week low of $111.62. If the stock went back to its 52-week high by the end of the year, that would represent a double-digit gain. AOL Finance gives the stock a forward P/E ratio of 31. For a company like Apple, one that has excellent growth prospects ahead of it, that isn't bad.
As many have observed, this tech company, an arch competitor of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), is a cult stock. Not only does Apple have rabid fans eager to buy its iPod and iMac products, but it has an avid following for its shares. If Apple could just get one more big dip, I'd think seriously about buying in. As of now, I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. Perhaps during the summer Apple will see a nice retreat from current levels, and it will be an interesting idea ahead of the Q4 holiday season. I will be keeping my eye on Apple.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Sandisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK), which makes the small and sleek Sansa Portable Music Player, just bought MusicGremlin, a wireless music subscription business. That gives me hope that there is still life outside the cult of Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod. Sandisk's stock is down about 3% today, which is typical for the buying company.
I did once love my iPod Shuffle, which worked perfectly up until the day it stopped working at all. I made an appointment at the Apple store Genius Bar to try to fix it, reconfirmed before I headed over, then got there to find it would be at least a 90 minute wait. Did the same thing with the same results again, then gave up.
But I'm happy to report that my little Sansa is wonderful.
In case more evidence was needed that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s Zune is a bust, GameStop (NASDAQ: GME) has decided to stop selling the MP3 player, citing the fact the product "didn't have the appeal" that it had hoped it would. GameStop has pulled the inventory from its stores and will offer the Zunes on its website until it has cleared out the entire inventory.
In response, Microsoft told the Wall Street Journal that the Zune sales "have seen good momentum" of late and that the company had seen "great response to our spring release." Translation: "Believe us not your lying eyes."
The failure of the Zune and similar iPod wannabes indicates that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) may have a bigger moat than many had expected. So far no one has been able to dethrone the iPod and as stores like GameStop stop carrying competitors, Apple's competitive advantage will strengthen.
So, according to this piece out on Reuters, Napster (NASDAQ: NAPS) is in a fighting mood. It recently created an MP3 download site that contains over six million tunes. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been doing gangbuster business for years with its iTunes juggernaut, so it only stands to reason that from now until doomsday there will be initiatives aimed at stealing a little bit of the big guy's thunder. Whether it's Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) or Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Apple will always have challengers.
Question is, does this matter? Should Steve Jobs and his Apple shareholders be shuddering in their collective boots? Probably not, although any competition should be taken seriously, I suppose. I grant you that Napster is a recognizable name when it comes to web-based music commerce (heck, Napster started all the peer-to-peer ruckus way back when), and that six million compositions represents an awesome depth of musical inventory, But come on, Apple has staked out one of the most vital components of a successful business: unmatched brand equity.
Simply put, Apple's brand in music downloads is as powerful and iconic as Coca-Cola's brand is in soft drinks. Yes, the Napster service, according to the article, will have an important competitive component, namely the ability to transfer songs to other devices, including the iPod. Napster, as many of you probably know, markets a subscription-based service, but you can bet that management will now concentrate on this download asset.
Companies from Nokia (NYSE:NOK) to Samsung are trying to create a product to compete with the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. Now RIM (NASDAQ:RIMM) will join the group.
RIM will come out with a touchscreen version of its Blackberry, probably in the third quarter. The decision is based on a false premise, which is that people want to buy an "iPhone" from someone other than Apple.
According toThe Wall Street Journal "Dubbed the Thunder, the new BlackBerry is among RIM's strongest moves so far to appeal to the increasing number of consumers opting for multimedia phones."
The market has heard this song before. Over a year ago, both Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) came to market with competition for the iPod. Neither made any progress.
As infantile as the reasoning may seem, Apple built a nearly perfect product, which has been confirmed by strong demand , and plans to improve on it with features like 3G capability. Competition cannot replace what the customer views as irreplaceable.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 newsletter.
SingTel, Singapore's big phone company, and some of its partners will bring the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone to Singapore, India, Australia and the Philippines. While the moves does not get the device into the huge China market, it does go a long way to helping Apple reach its iPhone sales goals and increases the likelihood that the company will have strong earning late this year and into next.
To be successful in these markets, Apple will probably need a 3G version of it smarphone, but word is that the feature will be coming soon.
Despite its success in the US, Apple is at a disadvantage to other Smartphone companies like Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Samsung, They have been in the Asian markets for years. It is not likely that they will part with that market share easily. Both companies have brought out multi-media and music stores of their own in the hope of competing with iTunes.
Apple probably already has several million unit sales in these markets locked up. The iPhone, in its unlock version, is already used on networks in Asia. The Apple brand is strong in the region because of the iPod.
The iPhone still has a chance to be Apple's most successful product, at least financially. Every big country where the iPhone is offered by a major carrier brings the company closer to that goal.
Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) can't afford to lose any market share to the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone. Apple has other businesses. RIM has only smartphones.
So as not to be bested RIM has a new BlackBerry. According toThe Wall Street Journal, the device, called Bold, "runs on high-speed 3G wireless networks that carriers are rolling out to handle media-rich features." It also has multi-media features for downloading music.
The launch misses a critical factor in business smartphone devices. Enterprise users probably have little interest in BlackBerry beyond its e-mail features. The fact that the phone runs on faster 3G networks added to the function. Putting multi-media features into the product does not. It simply adds cost. The 3G capability will also help sales outside the US where 3G is more widely deployed.
RIM has a problem. While it is not likely the BlackBerry will ever become a music player, the new 3G iPhone may well attract business users with better e-mail, calendar, and web-searching features. The iPhone also sell well because it is consider "next-generation" with its touch pad. It also benefits from the "halo" effect from the company's iPod and iTunes products.
Apple can add e-mail to the iPhone and have a device that can cut across business and consumer users. It is not clear that BlackBerry can ever get beyond its core enterprise market.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
Going by ad campaigns alone, you would think that every person -- or, at least every cool person -- had abandoned their Windows PCs and hoisted themselves onto the Macintosh bandwagon. Not so. The truth is that PCs far outnumber Macs in the market. The big-business worlds of finance, law, medicine use predominantly PC, while the areas of video production, web design and art use Mac. These computers do most of the same things (play games and DVDs, word-process, create web pages, store and play music) but they are completely different operating systems. Even though Apple computers now include the Intel processor that makes it possible to use Windows-only applications, it can still be hard to compare products.
But what about the companies themselves? What does the Apple brand signify that the Dell brand does not? And vice versa.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL): Providing innovative products and a user-friendly interface, Apple has turned the whole computer thing into a fashion accessory. For someone who used Dell products for years and then switched to Mac, the difference is like night and day. A Mac is so easy to use. With a clean interface, a near-universal compatibility with external products and tools, these computers are a beautiful breeze. And now that Macs include Intel processors, one can switch back and forth between a Windows interface and a Mac interface, making previous incompatibilities (software, games, etc.) now perfectly compatible. And when it comes to customer service (see below) Apple really socks the house.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) can't sell any Zunes, so it has come up with a plan so that it will continue to do badly in the business. According toThe Wall Street Journal, Redmond"is introducing a new technology that will let users of its Zune portable devices legally share portions of their song libraries with other Zune users." To take full advantage of the new product users will have to buy a $14.99 a month service called Microsoft's Zune Pass.
None of that is going to help get share from the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPod. Not only is it the largest music download service in the US, the iPod has almost 80% of the market. Zune owners can't share music with other Zune owners because there are so few of them. Perhaps Microsoft could start a "Zune-user location service" and charge money to help people find the two or three other Zune customers in their town.
There have been hopes that the Zune would do for Microsoft in the portable music device business what the Xbox did for it in gaming. But, Apple's footprint is too large and it is adding services, like video downloads and rentals, too quickly.
Microsoft should stick to trying to buy Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).