"Tread lightly," cautions leading fund expert Bill Donoghue. In his Marketwatch Proactive Fund Investor, which develops various actively-managed mutual funds portfolios, "Further market erosion is more likely than a rally. There's little reason for optimism."

"When trends become highly probable and highly correlated with portfolio holdings, our advice may become very profitable. This is one of those times.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average is about to take out its 2002 low and safe-harbor investors are shifting to precious metals. Technically the next support is 25% down at 6,000.

"Considering the chronic financial damage done to the global economy, the bottom could even be lower. Even if you are a perennial optimist, you have to entertain and prepare for the possibility that the safest investment is to expect a continuing market downturn.

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MarketWatch fund expert: A bear-proof portfolio originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Feb 2009 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.