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Pre-market Outlook: Futures Mixed as Investors Await Employment Data

U.S. stock futures are mixed this morning as investors await nonfarm payrolls figures for November. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6 points to 11,369 and S&P 500 futures fell 0.30 point to 1,222. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.75 points to 2,190.

U.S. stock markets closed higher yesterday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 106.63 points or 1%.

Economic data on nonfarm payrolls figures for November is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. An economic report on ISM non-manufacturing figures for November, along with factory orders for October, will be released after the opening bell.

Continue reading Pre-market Outlook: Futures Mixed as Investors Await Employment Data

Energy is crashing! Feeling bullish? Here's an easy way to invest

The energy debate rages on as oil and gas futures bounce around with 30% corrections. Which side of the energy debate are you on? Bears say that oil and gas prices are coming back down to earth. Speculators and hedge funds bid them up, global demand is slowing and alternative forms of energy will soon replace the fossil fuels we've come to depend upon. Bulls argue that oil and gas supplies are dwindling at the same time that the emerging market economies (China, India, Brazil and 20 others) need more. As their middle class population builds they too will want cars, air conditioning and electricity and demand will increase. Most oil reserves are in countries with unstable governments and when geopolitical events get ugly, prices tend to skyrocket.

I'm a long term energy bull -- 10% of my money has been in energy stocks for the last several years and today I maintain that allocation for two reasons. First, I believe in five years, oil and gas prices will be higher than they are today. Second, owning energy is a great hedge against other asset classes like stocks, the US dollar, and inflation.

No one knows which way energy prices will go next week or month so I continually rebalance my portfolio. As my energy stocks rise, I trim them and when they fall, I add to them. If my portfolio goes to 12% energy, I sell them back down to 10% and vice versa.

Now comes the easiest part – which stocks do I pick? Easy you say? Yes – because I don't worry about stock picking due to a miraculous new invention I'll discuss below. I own three energy stocks: the U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index (NYSE:IEO), the U.S. Oil Equipment & Services Index (NYSE:IEZ), and S&P Global Energy (NYSE:IXC). Through these three stocks, I own about 200 energy stocks in precise allocation percentages to parts of the energy sector, weighted according to my own preferences – 60% is in IEO, 30% is in IEZ and 10% is in IXC. Why pick stocks when I can own them all? Here's what I mean.

Continue reading Energy is crashing! Feeling bullish? Here's an easy way to invest

$100 oil prices?

Bloomberg is reporting that two oil "experts" are expecting $100 oil. One expert said $95 crude is "likely this year" and the other said we are "only a headline of significance" away from $100 oil. Interestingly, the article notes that a record number of contracts are outstanding with a bet on $100+ crude oil.

The situation in crude oil predictions makes is rather interesting but I wouldn't take these estimates as being very precise considering the fact that crude oil fundamentals merely fuel speculative buys or sells and the product doesn't really have a true value, because it doesn't generate cash flows.

That being said, I certainly wouldn't bet against crude oil or oil companies. The American people remain reliant on the precious commodity and I don't expect that to change anytime soon, even if alternative energy sources become popular.

Investors who believe that oil prices are going to rally have several options. In this situation I'd much rather purchase individual companies than the commodity simply because oil companies remain very cheap, even on oil prices as low at $50 per barrel. But investors do also have ETF choices such as iPath Crude Oil Total Return Index (NYSE: OIL) or United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) for the commodity itself, iShares Oil&Gas Exploration and Production (NYSE: IEO) for Oil&Gas companies, HOLDRS Oil Services Trust (AMEX: OIH) for services companies, or PowerShares Wilder Clean Energy Portfolio (AMEX: PBW) for investors who believe the United States is going to being making significant policy changes to strongly encourage alternative energy choices.

(Note: For ETF information I highly recommend ETF Connect)

While I can't tell you where oil is going or how it's going to move in the next few months, I think it's a pretty safe bet that the demand for crude oil is going to remain and American policymakers are going to be forced to start combating this somehow.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+80.0312,881.26
NASDAQ+28.302,932.18
S&P 500+9.221,351.86

Last updated: February 13, 2012: 03:26 PM

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