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Thinking about Apple and its share price

I want to add Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to my portfolio. I've been thinking about it for a while. I blew the opportunity of the most recent pullback. But that's in the past. So, what should I do now?

I'm a little reticent about buying Apple at these levels. Why? Is it some fundamental reason? Some overly technical reason? Well, it's more the latter than the former, but to be quite honest, it's mostly a gut feeling. I'm worried that the stock is going to flounder around throughout the dog days of summer. Yesterday's closing price of $176.84 is comfortably away from the 52-week high of $202.96, and it is well above the 52-week low of $111.62. If the stock went back to its 52-week high by the end of the year, that would represent a double-digit gain. AOL Finance gives the stock a forward P/E ratio of 31. For a company like Apple, one that has excellent growth prospects ahead of it, that isn't bad.

As many have observed, this tech company, an arch competitor of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), is a cult stock. Not only does Apple have rabid fans eager to buy its iPod and iMac products, but it has an avid following for its shares. If Apple could just get one more big dip, I'd think seriously about buying in. As of now, I just can't bring myself to pull the trigger. Perhaps during the summer Apple will see a nice retreat from current levels, and it will be an interesting idea ahead of the Q4 holiday season. I will be keeping my eye on Apple.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Apple has two-thirds of the PC market for machines above $1,000

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) just can't stop taking market share in one area or another. The iPod and iPhone maker was found in a recent study by research house NPD Group to have about 66% of the PC market for machines costing more than $1,000. Although the majority of PCs don't sell for over $1,000, Apple's still kickin' it when it comes to those nicer PCs.

Apple's current share of the U.S. PC market stands at 14% which is impressive considering it's grown that figure in every quarter since 2007. The company's retail store presence has been a success, and the brand euphoria from the iPhone's debut almost a year ago has helped Mac sales continue to grow.

This isn't some overnight success story, though. PC competitors such as Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) ship millions of sub-$1,000 PCs every quarter, but Apple only has one PC below that price point, the diminutive Mac Mini, which does not even come with a keyboard, mouse or monitor.

A customer can buy a fully-equipped desktop of laptop PC (non-Apple) for that price -- so why doesn't Apple compete better in the sub-$1,000 space? Because it doesn't have to. Its brand and product designs command premium prices and customers seem eager as anything to pay those prices. That's the power Apple has -- one that any manufacturer in any industry would love to have.

Apple (AAPL): A 'game-changer'

"The more I look at Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and its new iPhone, the more I consider it to be, perhaps, the most innovative and transformative company in mobile computing today," notes wireless sector expert Nikhil Hutheesing.

The editor of The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch explains, "Put simply, iPhone is a game-changing product, and we are now making the case for investors to buy the stock."

"When Apple first announced its move into the wireless PDA business - in January 2007 when it introduced its iPhone - there was skepticism over whether it would be able to grab market share from incumbents like Research In Motion, which makes the BlackBerry smartphone and Palm which makes Treo handhelds.

"Nobody is doubting Apple today. Steve Jobs' iPhone is in the hands of over four million people and it is now the number two smartphone in the business with a 28% market share. It has surpassed Palm and is nipping at the heels of RIMM's BlackBerry.

"Until recently, iPhone, like Apple's Mac has been a fairly 'closed' universe. It was a great consumer device but it had little presence among large corporate users, the so-called enterprise market. That all changed in March.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL): A 'game-changer'

Best Buy plans to ramp up Apple presence in 2008

The largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S., Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY), plans to step up the presence Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has in its stores this year. Best Buy is planning to have twice as many stores displaying Apple's Macintosh PC products, from the iMac to the MacBook. Now, this isn't an official statement more than a highly likely plan, according to a UBS analyst who dug up dirt on 2008 planning from company executives.

If this is true, it would come as no surprise. Apple has garnered an ever-increasing share of the PC market as of late, and Best Buy has been pounding on competitor Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) with all its force. Best Buy's closest Apple-carrying competitor, CompUSA, is in the process of permanently shutting its doors as well.

Apple's display area in Best Buy stores is very odd, but smack's of Apple's marketing arrogance and the power it has to control the look and feel of its entire presence wherever Apple PC products are merchandised. Apple has "stores within a store" that separate the Apple presence completely from other PC products in an age when all PCs are commodity products anyway.

Oops, except for Apple products -- which do feature a non-Microsoft operating system, industry-leading design and style and superior marketing compared to any global PC brand. Those facts alone dictate Apple PC products be placed in a league all their own. In Best Buy stores, that league it set to expand rapidly in 2008.

iPod, iPhone raising Apple's share of PC market

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has had tremendous success in the digital music player and now cellphone markets. Starting with the iPod and (not) ending with the iPhone, the company has been a force -- if not the force -- in consumer electronics this year. But, was it all to get more customers buying Apple's computer products? That argument -- known as a the halo effect -- has been drawn up in countless articles and blog posts. Surprise, surprise -- it is most likely working.

The market share Apple's Macintosh computer products have been seeing has taken the Cupertino, Calif., company from a single-digit slice of the PC market to a force to be reckoned with in 2007. In a November report from research firm ChangeWave Research, the data indicates that more potential buyers than ever plan to buy a Mac in the near future. Is Steve Jobs dancing in his office? Probably not -- this has been part of his plan for more than just a few years. After all, capture them with marketing and surround them with your other products behind the competitor's back, huh Steve?

Continue reading iPod, iPhone raising Apple's share of PC market

Dell to offer new tablet and all-in-one PCs soon

Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) will be releasing a new all-in-one PC, ala Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iMac soon, according to information from the company this week. In addition, the computer maker will be releasing a touch-screen tablet computer that may operate in part like Apple's iPhone -- but with full PC capabilities.

Is this an homage to Apple or an attempt to set itself apart from the competition? Well, all-in-one PCs have been around for a while, but most consumers would be ashamed to own one. The lone exception: the iMac. It's a full PC that looks like a slightly-thicker LCD computer monitor. It's amazing that Dell has not yet developed a tablet PC under the Dell brand new, but the Latitude XT tablet PC would be the first. The new Latitude will be on sale "in the next few months" according to Dell CEO Michael Dell, and will feature stylus or fingertip control instead of a keyboard and mouse combination.

Will this cause customers to flock to Dell for its award-winning industrial and all-in-one design? Nope, that designation goes to Apple, whose iMac is the company's best-selling desktop PC. Although the desktop is handily being replaced in households and businesses by the laptop computer, there is -- and will be for a long while -- a need for desktop PC systems.

If Dell's new all-in-one design is, you know, actually attractive and features decent performance, it may have something to reckon with in the market. Competitors Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) and Taiwan's Acer really don't push these designs in the consumer segment very hard at all, so if there's a market there, it could be Dell's for the taking.

Apple's (AAPL) iPhone and Mac sales estimates are right on the mark

When it comes to predicting various product sales from hipper-than-hip Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), it's good to know that we have more than financial analyst statistics and feelings to look at. One stock watcher recently hung out quite a bit at several Apple retail stores to try and collect empirical data from his own two eyes to see if Apple's analyst-predicted iPhone and Mac product sales numbers are indeed stacking up or are falling short.

The conclusion? Apple will most likely achieve its goal of 730,000 iPhone sales in the quarter ended September 30. In fact, the conclusion this analyst came up with from his store checks indicate Apple could bypass its own estimate and sell over 800,000 iPhones in the July-September quarter.

As far as Apple Mac sales go, Gene Munster's research stated that about 2 million Mac systems would be sold in September alone, pushing past his earlier estimate of 1.9 million. It's interesting to note that the average Apple retail store sells over 55 Mac systems per open day, not counting website sales or other retail sales, like those inside Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) locations. Are Apple shares headed above $200 territory? Munster maintains his $211 target.

Apple (AAPL): The cream continues to rise

The stock market has demonstrated its power to scare investors with volatility. These past six weeks have created an environment of fear, uncertainty and doubt, otherwise known as FUD. Historically, markets never go straight up or straight down as pessimism is balanced by optimism in these short-term battles. But throughout all of this FUD, the better-run companies seem to rise to the top, as is the case with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Apple's stock is sitting at $138, having seen a recent 52-week high of nearly $149. At the worst of this trough a few weeks back, the stock did hit $118 when investor nervousness was at its highest. Also, professional portfolio managers were unloading their winning trades in order to protect some semblance of 2007 performance. With that apparently behind us, the return to quality is certainly emerging. Apple is in this camp and one of its leaders.

Apple's quarter and fiscal-year end is September 30, so the company is now in its final 30 days of the year. The numbers I expect from Apple for the September quarter are revenues of $5.95 billion and earnings per share of 82 cents. If recent history repeats itself, Apple will more than likely exceed those expectations. The wind is clearly at its back.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL): The cream continues to rise

Apple goes after Windows users

Apple's new iMacApple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has released the latest version of the Mac, the iMac. And, it has added software that may allow it to compete with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows, the standard OS for PCs.

The new software on the iMac could take the place of some Windows functions. According to (subscription required)The Wall Street Journal, Macs will be loaded with a new product called Numbers that can perform the same functions as Windows Excel.

Apple's share of the US computer market has grown to 5%.

If Apple thinks it will get much more of the market, it is kidding itself. Unlike the iPod market, where it had very little direct competition from another large company, the PC competition is lead by Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), and each of these companies has a huge stake in defending its share.

Beyond that, Apple's software may recreate some of the functions of Windows software, but it does not have the huge array of functions built into Vista. And, computer users have become used to these features by using Windows over a number of years. Switching them, at both the consumer and enterprise level will be difficult.

Finally, Windows-based PCs can communicate with one another easily because of the common OS. Apple would have to break that cycle by getting users to buy a product that is not compatible with Windows.

It won't happen.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

What iPhone? Jobs to hold Mac Conference next week

According to TUAW, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) will be holding an analyst/press event next Tuesday, August 7th. The focus of the event will be the Mac computer. What is likely to be discussed?
  • New iMacs -- there is speculation that there will be new 20" and 24" models, and that the 17" model will be discontinued.
  • iLife '08, iWork '08 -- there is also talk that Jobs will demonstrate these two long-awaited software programs.
  • New slim keyboards -- we will also likely see if the new slimmer iMac keyboard is a reality or a fraud.
Fact is, Apple can use a little positive, non-iPhone related news, as the stock has been on edge with every whisper of the too-early-to-tell-if-it's-a-success iPhone. Whatever is announced, expect the Mac fan boys and girls to go wild.

Dell tries eye-candy: New colors for its computers

In what seems like an idea from the late 1990s (Apple iMac, anyone?), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) is unveiling a computer that transcends the boring white and black schemes of its current PC lineup. Ever see the latest gray on a Dell Inspiron laptop system? Ugh -- and it's 2007 for crying out loud. Dell's design chief in the last few years apparently has not worked closely with the PC maker's contract manufacturers to design good-looking machines. That is changing today, according to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), which is reporting new and colorful directions for Dell's consumer PCs.

Although the new PC system colors that Dell is launching today are nothing more than just surface color changes (not new designs or anything), this will definitely help the struggling PC maker reach the increasingly picky customer who wants a PC or laptop that is different than all the rest. Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) had this strategy in 1998 when it launched the original iMac and even today has the strategy of differing colors throughout the entire iPod line. Why? Because customers respond to brand marketing that "becomes them" -- and a favorite color is a cheap and easy way to get them hooked.

Dell's new "Yours is here" marketing campaign kicks off today as well, as the company strives to become a more personal partner for buying a PC than before (instead of pumping out PC boxes that were merely ordinary). These colorful (no pun intended) changes in Dell's consumer strategy are just the latest in the computer manufacturer's quest to become more relevant to the consumer and try to win back market share from larger rival Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ). If Dell can somehow manage to get these new PC colors into the retail sector, it may really have something working for it. Eye candy in person works, and works well. Ever buy a car without regard to color? I thought not.

Apple: Is Wall Street underestimating iMac?

While many advisors and investors focus on the iPod and the iPhone when assessing the outlook for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nate Pile has a different take.

The editor of Nate's Notes explains, "As often happens following the release of widely anticipated news, Apple has drifted lower over the past few week -- and it would not surprise me at all to see this downtrend continue for another several weeks while analysts and investors alike fret over 'slowing iPod sales' and debate over the merits and the potential of the iPhone."

And while he expects that the iPod and iPhone will remain in the spotlight for the next several quarters, he adds, "These products are not our primary reason for being in the stock. That honor goes to the company's iMac line."

Indeed, based on the expanding markets for the PC/digital world, he believes we will see an "unexpected surge" in iMac sales.

Continue reading Apple: Is Wall Street underestimating iMac?

Is Google the next operating system?

One of Google's missions is to bring the world's information to everyone possible using any method possible. With that said, it's good to see that much of what Google produces in terms of product can be accessed by customers using either the Windows operating system or the Apple Mac operating system. Is this a coincidence? Hardly.

Most of what Google produces is platform-agnostic, and that's by design, of course. The platform used by Google is the web browser -- the operating system is an afterthought in a manner of speaking. Yes, there are Google applications like Google Earth and Google Picasa that are actually installed programs -- not web-based ones.

But still, most of the great stuff Google produces just needs a standards-compliant web browser (that's an oxymoron). If you use Windows XP, MacOS X, Linux, Unix, FreeBSD, you name it -- most of the Google universe is available to you with an Internet connection and a web browser.

The point made in the source article is that soon, many questions about "software" won't be mentioned as in "for Windows or Mac." Soon, it may take on the phrasing of "Windows, Mac or Google." That's an odd thought, but true. Just like the Internet itself, Google has designed and is designing everything to be universally open and accessible from almost every possible angle.

As a GOOG investor, this is a key thing to keep in mind -- the barriers to entry are almost non-existent and the product release schedule is not dictated by any third party. Google may just be the next operating "system".



After one week Apple stops sale of $899 iMac

no more 899 imacLast week Apple announced the release of a $899 Education configuration of the iMac released specifically for teachers and students. The iMac was available to individual teachers, students, and faculty members via the Apple site. However, as of yesterday, the $899 configuration is no longer available via the Apple store for the public. It is now only available via the Apple store for institutional customers.

This comes as many enthusiast sites have been commenting on the potential cannibalization of the standard iMac line, which runs in the $1199 range and $1599 range for educators (for enhanced 17-inch and 19-inch configurations, respectively).

The $899 configuration was touted by Apple in an official press release and seemed to be a great boon for students and teachers, who could very much use an affordable offering. The bottom line of profit making, though, has reared its ugly head it seems and snatched this item away for now, or at least until Apple pricing/branding/marketing strategists can figure out the best price/sales channel through which to market this configuration.

Meet the new eMac

Back in 2002 Apple came out with the eMac. Short for 'education mac,' it used a CRT screen to save money and bring the price of the eMac for students and education purchases into a magic $999 figure. A cheap mac.

When the $599 Mac Mini came out it seemed the venerable eMac would no longer be continued. Apple obviously had a budget computer, the Mini or the $1000 iBook meant a student could easily afford a good Apple with which to head back to school.

But Apple just quietly released an educationally configured iMac. It isn't labeled an eMac anymore, it's just a slightly more stripped-down iMac (smaller hard drive, 80 gig instead of 160, a combo drive instead of DVD burning superdrive, and a slightly slower video card) that can be snagged by back-to-schoolers for the price of $899, $100 cheaper than the original eMac launched almost exactly four years ago.

Will it help goose Apple's back-to-school purchases? Hard to tell, the eMac was certainly a hit, but that was because it was one of the first sub-$1000 Apples, a magic number to break. But if you look at the price of a 17-inch flat panel monitor, your own keyboard and mouse and add that onto a Mac Mini, it only works out cheaper if you're particular about those accessories. For $899 you get a 17-inch all-in-one flat panel computer, no mucking about.

[Disclosure: I own Apple stock at the date of this post]

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 02:44 AM

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