This sounds like an investment opportunity to me: China and India plan to increase coal imports by 78%, as reported in Bloomberg Businessweek.

Yesterday, I wrote about the worldwide shortage of copper, in the neighborhood of 500,000 metric tons. Now we have another commodity for which demand will be strong next year.

In upcoming talks with China, the United States will try for what seems like the 1,000th time to encourage China to let its currency, the yuan, appreciate quicker, even as a growing list of sponsors add their name to a U.S. House bill, The New York Times (NYT) reported, that would require the Obama administration to impose duties or other trade barriers in lieu of currency action by Beijing.

China keeps the yuan in a tight trading band, arguing that it must keep the yuan valued at a low level to protect embryonic companies and sectors.

The United States argues that the yuan's artificially-low value unnaturally draws in trade revenue via cheap exports that, under a market-value yuan, would flow to other countries.

The news on the import/export front is not good. The Commerce Department reported that our trade deficit widened to $49.90 billion in July, a 21-month high. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had expected the deficit to come in at $42.7 billion.

The wider deficit was caused by a increased imports and a drop in exports. Exports shrank by 1.3% to $150.45 billion, while imports jumped to 3.1% to $200.35 billion, up from $194.42 billion.

Now that China has agreed to a modest appreciation of the yuan, should investors expect more of the same in the quarters ahead?

At this juncture, no. The yuan's record high of 6.7980 yuan to the dollar reached Tuesday represents just a minor adjustment in Beijing's monetary policy, and that's what investors should look forward to: an incremental and very slow effort by Beijing to let the yuan appreciate, with limits.

How much will China let the yuan appreciate in a year? Perhaps 5% a year. The aforementioned may not seem like much but it does represent a Beijing response to international political pressure, primarily from the United States and the European Union.

Add the International Monetary Fund to the list of nations, institutions, and officials calling for China to let its currency appreciate.

The IMF, in its revised World Economic Outlook, said an appreciation of China's currency, "appears highly desirable on its own."

The group also said a shift in China's economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption, along with structural measures to decrease savings, would be preferred, as well.

China may allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate versus the dollar by June 30 to check inflation, according to a new Bloomberg survey.

In the survey, 12 respondents said China's central bank will allow the yuan to float freely this quarter, while five expect it to occur by September 30. The median estimate for the yuan's strengthening was a 3.1% appreciation to 6.62 yuan to the dollar by the end of 2010.

A few months ago, the U.S. filed a complaint with the International Trade Commission against the "dumping" of Chinese steel pipe onto the U.S. market, driving down prices and crowding out U.S. producers. The commission voted in favor to the U.S. claim.

The case was prompted by pressure from the the United Steelworkers and seven U.S. steel producers. Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers said: "China's government and exporters are being told we are fed up with their cheating on our fair trade laws and penalties for these transgressions are long overdue."

The complex, delicate trade relationship between the United States and China will likely become more complex -- and heated -- in the months ahead, particular if the current mood in the U.S. Senate doesn't change.

The Senate is likely to increase pressure on President Obama to push China to let its fixed-rate currency, the yuan, appreciate, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

China's exports rose 46% in February, signaling a sharp pickup in consumer demand in the United States and Europe. China reported a $7.6 billion trade surplus for the month.

This is the third month of increases in exports and the fastest in three years. Orders from the U.S., Europe and Japan accounted for almost half of the growth.

China's imports also rose by 45% over the previous year, led by crude oil for its factories.

New York Times ( NYT) columnist Paul Krugman argues quite persuasively that China needs to reconsider its fixed/tight band currency policy, and soon.

Krugman argues that not only is China encouraging the continuance of a key structural imbalance in the global economy – one that helped cause the world's first global recession since the end of World War II – it's also increasing unemployment in other nations.

Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: Saudi Arabia's oil exports to the United States have fallen to a 22-year low, at 745,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, the latest month for which data is available, from 1.14 million bpd in July, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. August's 745,000 bpd total is the lowest since December 1987. On a year-over-year basis (August 2008-August 2009), those exports are down about 50%.

It all started when President Obama, under pressure from U.S. unions, slapped a 35% tariff on tire imports from China. This move angered Beijing to no end, and to the point that China is challenging the action with the World Trade Organization.

China, in retaliation, has said that it would launch an "antidumping" policy against U.S. car exports to China. U.S. car makers export only about 9,000 vehicles to China at present. However, China is now the leading auto maker in the world, and barring U.S. imports would hamper the U.S. auto export market.

Markets throughout the world have been rallying on the expectation that the world recession is ending. Lurking underneath the surface are some disturbing events.

Japan is in a sharp deflationary spiral. The Corporate Goods Index, which measures wholesale prices, plunged 8.5%, this after a 6.7% drop in June. This is the fastest drop on record.

Let's look at other deflationary numbers. Import prices fell 33.3% in yen terms and 26.5% on a contract-currency basis. Export prices fell 15.3% in yen terms and 6.5% in contract currencies.

Good morning! A New York Times article reports that cheap booze is seeing a nice sale spike as folks swap out premium or even mid-market brands for rotgut. Popov & Tonic, anyone? The Prince of Darkness over at Zero Hedge illuminates us as to the possibility that a major supplier of financing to rural electrical cooperatives could go dark, taking down dozens of utilities in the sticks with it. Maverick ratings agency Egan Jones began calling this a while back.

Many economists agree the U.S.'s pronounced recession, and the global recession, to some degree, were triggered by a series of imbalances. One of those imbalances is correcting now.

The U.S. trade deficit declined again in December 2008, by 4%, to $39.9 billion -- the lowest level since February 2003 -- on a substantial decline in imports, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday.

Further, for all of 2008, the trade deficit narrowed to $677.1 billion from $700.2 billion in 2007. In 2008, exports increased 12% to $1.84 trillion, while imports climbed 7.4% to $2.52 trillion.