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Will Robert Shiller be a good contrarian indicator?

Yesterday, Robert Shiller of MacroMarkets said "the pullback in the US residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down." This followed the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index falling 0.9% sequentially in the second quarter.

The index is down 3.2% from the second quarter of last year and is at its lowest level since it began in 1987. Robert Shiller went on to say he is worried about your home's value, and that's not good.

As a reminder, Shiller, of Yale professorial claim, correctly called the excesses of the late 1990's stock market. However, while he called the top, he never called the bottom, staying with his bearish bias way too long and never becoming a buyer.

Shiller shifted his focus to real estate in the current decade. Once again, his bearish prognostications proved correct. However, as the real estate market becomes weaker and weaker with the media flocking to his doors, the trained economist appears to be focused on following the downward trend and not attempting to find a point to start bottom fishing.

A new contrarian indicator may be when Shiller hits the airwaves in full force with his bearish views, it could prove to be a good sign that the bottom for the bear market in real estate is near.

Indicators lining up for possible market bottom this morning

Indicators are lining up this morning for the market to bottom. The Dow will hit its 200-moving day average and virtually every other oscillating tool is suggesting the market is tremendously oversold.

The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have all also corrected to their long-term moving-average support levels. As with most major corrections, the averages have broken through or will break through them this morning, providing that additional fear investors feel when the market finally capitulates.

Noteworthy pundit Byron Wien, of Pequot Capital and long-time Morgan Stanley strategist, said in a CNBC interview earlier this week that his target for the S&P 500 is 1,600. Tom McManus, who has also developed a good long-term track record, upped his target for the S&P 500 not too long ago.

All told, fear has replaced greed. It is time to line up your wish list and start buying. Stocks Theflyonthewall.com has recently blogged about that investors may want to look at include National Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: NSM), General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM), Global Crossing Limited (NASDAQ: GLBC), Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT), AES Corporation (NYSE: AES), UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA) and Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD).

Another reliable data point hints at economic slowdown

Following our blog on the continued deterioration in the leading indicators for the economy, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (NYSE: ETH), a very good indicator of economic activity, last night reduced its EPS estimate for this current quarter to 53c-56c, well below the expected 59c consensus.

Ethan Allen is one of the few companies that have positioned themselves to survive and possibly thrive when the Fed decides to fuel up the economy again. Management honesty in the way they evaluate their own performance translates into honestly on how they communicate to investors. Therefore, a good source for what is going on in the economy.

The furniture maker began warning of a slowdown very close to when the housing industry rolled over. It appeared the economy was moving along fine, but once again Ethan proved to be a good and correct data point on housing and subsequently the economy.

It is time to start using Ethan Allen as the indicator as to when the economy will bottom. If the stock does little to the downside today, it is most likely a sign the selling is done and the Fed will move to lower rates.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-344.6511,188.23
NASDAQ-74.692,259.04
S&P 500-38.151,236.83

Last updated: September 05, 2008: 12:28 AM

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