Last week, the Fed's Beige Book report confirmed that the economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous periods. This week will bring plenty of economic data to either support or contrast with the Fed's findings.

• Monday: Federal government budget balance for August
• Tuesday: Business inventory numbers from July, TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September, retail sales data from August
• Wednesday: Industrial production in August, Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September, Import Price Index for August
• Thursday: Producer Price Index for August, Philly Fed Survey for September, the Current Account Balance in the second quarter, jobless claims for last week
• Friday: preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Consumer Price Index for August, real earnings data for August

If you sense that the U.S. stock market recently seems to trade up one day on a good data point, then trade down the next, when a negative data point is released, you're not the only one.

Further, look for the Dow to remain range-bound, with rallies and pull-backs containing little conviction, until the U.S. economic outlook has been clarified.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke perhaps best summarized the U.S. economic outlook when he termed it "unusually uncertain." Don't misunderstand: The U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace in the second quarter, but conflicting data regarding what's next abounds.

The compelling stat for investors in March's industrial production data released Thursday by the U.S. Federal Reserve? Without question, the factory output component of the index, which jumped an impressive 0.9%.

The top-line industrial production statistic indicated just a 0.1% rise in March -- to be sure, one that confirmed a nearly year-long expansion in industrial production -- but hardly a large move. The March rise was also well below the estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, which forecast an 0.8% rise.

The numbers are looking good for January: both US home construction and industrial production rose.

Here are the stats:

• The Commerce Department reported that housing starts climbed 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted 591,000 annual rate.
• Housing starts and apartment construction were both up in January.
• Apartment construction rose 9.2% to 107,000

U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in November. The index showed no change in October. We can infer from this that manufacturers are working off inventory and are able to produce more to meet increased demand. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News has expected a gain of 0.5%.

Here are specific sector changes:

• New York's Empire State Index fell to five month low of 2.6 from 23.5 in November. Readings above zero signal expansion.

Let's not be confused by the numbers. Industrial production is still declining. What does that mean? It implies that demand for goods and services still has not picked up. This number does not bode well for unemployment. We need more production to put unemployed workers back to work.

Just look at the numbers:

• Industrial production fell 0.4% in June, the slowest in eight months. In may the decline was 1.2%.
• Output fell 11.6% in the second quarter, compared with a drop of 19.1% in the first quarter.
• For the year auto and auto parts production fell 32.5%

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve's FOMC holds two-day meeting on interest rates and will announce its decision on Wednesday. The Fed's Ben Bernanke will still be out and about this week, discussing the failure of Lehman Brothers later today, and ending up the week speaking at the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention and Techworld.

Manufacturing will be in focus this week, starting with industrial production numbers for February and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Diffusion Index for March scheduled to be released Monday morning. Tuesday morning will bring us the Producer Price Index for February, and Thursday morning comes the Philadelphia Fed Outlook Survey -- Diffusion Index Manufacturing for March.

U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Tuesday, its third drop in the past four months.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected industrial production to rise 0.1% in May. Industrial production fell 0.7% in April.

Further, manufacturing output was unchanged in May, the Fed said, while utilities output declined 1.8%, and mine output increased 0.1%. The Fed added that factory output was boosted by a small pickup in the index for motor vehicles and parts; the end in late May of a strike at a parts producer had little effect on vehicle output for the month.

Also, capacity utilization declined to 79.4% in May from 79.6% in 79.7 in April. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 79.7 in May. The May utilization rate is 1.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2007 and is at its lowest level since November 2004. Capacity utilization totaled 80.3% in March and 80.9% one year ago, in May 2007.

U.S. economy operating well below capacity

Economist David H. Wang said U.S. industrial production continues to operate well below capacity. "We are continuing to see a downward path of industrial production and this is not a good sign. Industrial production has declined for about one year, and this will weigh on commercial activity. It's also a major job loss area," Wang said. "The U.S. economy is complex and multi-faceted but it's hard for GDP to grow without industrial production increasing."

U.S. industrial production plunged 0.7% in April 2008, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Thursday, as a spectrum-wide contraction took place in the nation's factories.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected industrial production to decline 0.3% in April 2008.

Further, factory output plummeted 0.8% - - the largest drop in factory output since September 2005, a month that reflected the abnormal, irregular factory output reduction caused by Hurricane Katrina in the late summer of 2005. Excluding autos and auto parts, factory output declined 0.4%.

Also, capacity utilization increase declined to 79.7% in April 2008 from 80.4% in March 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 80.1% in April 2008. Capacity utilization totaled 80.3% in February 2008.

Industrial output evaluation

Economist David H. Wang said the April 2008 industrial production statistic reflects a familiar theme in the current U.S. economic slowdown: a contracting factory sector.

U.S. industrial production increased 0.3% in March 2008 the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Wednesday, as business equipment and utilities services demand increased. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected industrial production to decline 0.2% in March 2008.

Meanwhile, production for February 2008 was revised lower to a decline of 0.7%, compared with the previous estimate of a 0.5% decline. Also, capacity utilization increase 0.2% to 80.5% in March 2008 up from 80.3% in February 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected capacity utilization to total 80.3% in March 2008.

For Q1 2008, industrial production declined 0.1%, after rising 0.4% in Q4 2007. Industrial production is up 1.6% in the last 12 months.

Industrial output evaluation

Economist David Wang said investors should not get too giddy about the positive surprise concerning the March 2008 industrial production data. "It was a pleasant surprise, but keep in mind it is just one month. The economy remains near or in a recession and consumer demand is low," Wang said. "That means we're likely to see slack demand for industrial output this summer, and I expect the industrial sector to curtail some operations, so I expect the summer industrial production data to reflect that."

Industrial production increased 0.1% in January 2008 for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Friday, in a statement. The statistic was in-line with economists' consensus estimate.

Meanwhile, the December 2007 output was revised to a 0.1% increase, up from the previous estimate of 0.0%.

At 114.2% of its 2002 average, overall industrial production was 2.3% above its January 2007 level, the Fed said.

In addition, capacity utilization -- which indicates the percent of industrial resources in service -- was unchanged from the prior month's revised percentage of 81.5%. At 81.5%, capacity utilization is 0.4 percentage points above its year-ago level and 0.5 percentage points above its 1972-2007 average. Capacity utilization has averaged about 81% over the last three decades: higher utilization rates suggest upward pressure on prices is likely in the months ahead.

Perhaps no nation expends more effort toward measuring its economy than the United States.

GDP, consumer prices, industrial production, housing starts, corporate earnings, retail sales, job creation...the financial world receives a continuing stream of information that helps Wall Street set the price for various asset classes, the chief among these being stocks and bonds.

Moreover, most of the key statistics are widely-known, long-standing indicators of economic activity. Others, however, are lesser-known -- but often equally telling -- barometers of the nation's health. One of those involves unemployed workers.

The 13% threshold

The U.S. Labor Department announced that in December 2007, 7.66 million adults were unemployed, a 13.2% increase from December 2006, when 6.70 million adults were out of work.

The significance? In nine previous economic cycles since 1950 with a 13% rise, the annual rise in unemployed adults has signaled a recession every time, The New York Times reported.

In almost all economic environments, the U.S. Federal Reserve is taciturn regarding its likely next monetary policy decisions.

But of late the Fed has deviated and taken a specificity-is-better route, with Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner stating before a Manhattan group that another rate cut would probably provide few additional stimulative benefits for the U.S. economy.

"The current stance of monetary policy should help the economy get through the rough patch during the next few years," Kroszner said during remarks at the Institute of International Finance in Manhattan, Bloomberg News reported.

The Fed has cut benchmark interest rates twice, starting in September. The Fed Funds rate, the rate banks charge each other, now stands at 4.50%, and the discount rate, the rate the Fed charges banks for short-term loans, is at 5.00%.

In his IIF remarks, Kroszner added that he expected the housing recession to worsen, with weaker home sales, but that longer-term, he expects the U.S. economy to return to a sustainable growth rate after a difficult few months.

Fed Analysis: Kroszner's remarks were candid, if not the good news on interest rates Wall Street likes to hear from the Fed. Kroszner's candor indicates that The Fed is looking past October's 0.5% decline in Industrial Production and related, recent soft economic data, toward what the Fed believes will be an accelerating U.S. economy in Q1, stimulated by the Fed's September and October interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the stand-pat Fed stance is likely to draw criticism in investor and economic circles if additional Q4 data reveals a barely-growing U.S. economy.

Industrial Production fell 0.5% in October, considerably worse than the consensus estimate of a 0.1% production gain, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced Friday. It was the largest decline in IP since January 2007. Industrial Production rose 0.2% in September.

Meanwhile, capacity utilization --- which measures the percent of plants in use --- fell to 81.7% in October from 82.2% in September. Analysts had expected a 0.1%-0.3% rise in the utilization rate.

Production at factories declined 0.4%, utility production declined 1.6%, and mining output fell 0.6%. Also telling: production of consumer durable goods dropped 0.8%.

Analysts said the October industrial production decline adds to the argument that the U.S. housing sector's woes - - the most serious housing slump in more than a decade - - are beginning to spill over into the broader economy:

"The October industrial production statistic certainly is a disappointment. Combined with lower capacity utilization, it suggests the economy is slowing, and it's something that has to concern the Fed," economist M. David Chandler told Bloggingstocks. "This puts added focus on the November and December stats. If we see industrial production slowing in those two months, Q4 will come in very, very weak, and the U.S. economy will be growing at near-stall levels."