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Will the Fed's loose money policy be successful?

Wednesday, the Fed announced that interest rates would remain at zero to 0.25% for at least the next six months.

The Fed statement read as follows: "weak conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." The only change in the Fed's policy was a tweak in the amount of corporate debt that the Fed intends to buy.

Continue reading Will the Fed's loose money policy be successful?

Rising oil prices could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job tougher

What could complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve's job to boost the economy? The price of oil. That's correct: the price of crude -- the world's most important commodity.

The reason? The impact of a high price of oil on prices throughout the U.S. economy.

Continue reading Rising oil prices could make the Fed's inflation-fighting job tougher

Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Just call them dueling worldviews, or outlooks. In one corner is economist Joseph Stiglitz, who sees deflation as the primary threat to the U.S. economy, in the quarters ahead.

"Deflation is definitely a threat right now," Stiglitz, an economics professor at Columbia University, told Bloomberg News. "The combination of the deflation threat and the sluggish recovery should keep the Fed on hold for quite a while."

Continue reading Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?

Is a 'super-currency' possible?

Is a 'super-currency' – one that could for all intents and purpose replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency – possible?

Well, it is possible, but in this case the aforementioned switch would certainly be super, as it would represent a gargantuan task and adjustment period for members of the global financial system.

Continue reading Is a 'super-currency' possible?

PIMCO's Bill Gross buying U.S. Treasuries as protection against deflation

The U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and Congress' record $786 billion fiscal stimulus package run the risk of re-igniting inflation, in the interpretation of the inflation hawks. But not PIMCO's Bill Gross: he's concerned about deflation.

Gross, who heads the world's largest bond fund, said he's buying longer-maturity U.S. Treasuries as protection against deflation, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Continue reading PIMCO's Bill Gross buying U.S. Treasuries as protection against deflation

The Fed's plans to drain liquidity from the banking system, prevent inflation

The Fed plans to use "reverse repos" to drain liquidity from the banking system.

What's a reverse repo? It is quite simple. Let's start with the regular Treasury auctions. The primary dealers (dealers approved by the Fed) and indirect bidders, usually foreign and other investors, bid on Treasury notes and bonds. That leaves the primary dealers with an inventory on hand; that is, unless they then can resell it to other investors.

Continue reading The Fed's plans to drain liquidity from the banking system, prevent inflation

Inflation worries got you down? Buy TIP, a Treasury Inflation Protected ETF

With ever growing uncertainty whether our economy will face inflation or deflation in the months to come given recent government spending, what is certain is that no one wants to see their fixed income lose purchasing power. Unlike most bonds that pay out a fixed dollar amount in interest, treasury inflation protected bonds (TIPs) pay out a fixed amount over the consumer-price index (CPI), making them a popular choice for investor anticipating the economy to experience inflation. If inflation is higher than projected, the government adds to your principal on a TIP and makes up the difference!

Not only does owning TIPs allow one to keep up with monthly bills that are increasing in step with inflation, they are an important asset class to consider when determining an asset allocation strategy. TIPs enable one to further diversify a portfolio. Bonds are ideal for those not able to stomach much risk and TIPs in particular protect one's fixed income from eroding.

Continue reading Inflation worries got you down? Buy TIP, a Treasury Inflation Protected ETF

Are we going to crash again?

It has been about a year since Lehman Brothers failed and this financial crisis started, and it has hit many of the banks hard including Bank of American (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and America International Group (NYSE: AIG).

There has been one thing that has been bugged me in the coverage of it since then. Frequently, reporters use words like unprecedented or unparalleled to describe it. That is false! Financial crises, panics, crashes, bubbles, and bank failures are really about a dime a dozen.

Continue reading Are we going to crash again?

Oil makes strong move on weak dollar

rising oil pricesOil traders have been flocking into the precious crude today as the U.S. dollar fell to a new yearly low against the euro.

Oil prices have passed through the psychological $70 barrier, and continued to move higher, currently trading up $3.12 on the day to $71.14. Oil is not the only commodity that has been moving higher, as gold prices moved through the $1,000 mark for the first time since this past February.

Continue reading Oil makes strong move on weak dollar

Comfort Zone Investing: Road signs, good and bad, to navigate the market

Unlike Commissioner Gordon who can send out the Bat signal to call his helpmate against crime, there is nothing investors can do to summon aid in times of stress. They have to go it alone. But they can be armed with intelligence that helps. Here are few of the most prominent data points that will make a difference for all stocks, a macro perspective that should make navigating the stock market highway a little easier.

However, taken on a one-time basis, these aren't going to solve the mystery that is the market. Rather, data has to show a trend before it can be used. Even then, a trend stops and another begins. So even though the trend can be your friend, it can just as easily turn and become your enemy. As they used to say on Hill Street Blues: Be careful out there.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Road signs, good and bad, to navigate the market

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Deficit tally to make stocks more fragile

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rather than selling and moving into cash, consider these reasons to hold firm.

Look, the deficit numbers are awful. They are totally daunting. We have to hope they don't come true because they are way too big to cope with no matter what we do with taxes. The dollar will get killed. Our kids will be stuck with some horrifying bills. The disaster that Matt Horween outlined in his multi-part op-ed series a couple of weeks ago will happen.

So, why don't I say you should go into cash because of it? Couple of reasons: First, I have to have some faith that the government will grow up, that they will get serious about spending, that President Obama will get serious about spending. Second, I hope we have much more growth than people realize and therefore we can grow our way out of this jam.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Deficit tally to make stocks more fragile

Closing Bell: Bulls take reins back from Bears (AAPL, GRMN, HURN, HD, LOW, TGT)

Another day, another dollar. The difference is that yesterday's loss became today's gain. There was a weak wholesale inflation reading that kept the inflation hawks at bay and less-bad, or better than, expected earnings did the rest.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,214.54 +79.20 (0.87%)
S&P 500 989.53 +9.80 (1.00%)
Nasdaq 1,955.92 +25.08 (1.30%)

Top 10 Analyst Calls

Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls take reins back from Bears (AAPL, GRMN, HURN, HD, LOW, TGT)

These are the times that try economists' souls

Paraphrasing Thomas Paine: These are the times that try men's and women's souls ... especially if they're economists.

It's an economic law: population growth plus productivity growth equals GDP growth.

Well, the United States has the population growth, and for the past 20 years or so it's had the productivity growth. But GDP growth? Of late, that's been an empty chair at the party, as the United States remains in the grips of its worst recession in more than a generation.

Continue reading These are the times that try economists' souls

Will the new $7.25 federal minimum wage boost U.S. GDP?

The new $7.25 federal minimum wage took effect this week, and with it came concerns -- not unreasonably -- that the new rate risks increasing inflation in the United States.

A second side-effect concerns the higher cost it will impose on businesses, particularly small ones, in a recession, typically during a time of lower revenue/sales: it's a prescription that could squeeze selected business model bottom lines.

Continue reading Will the new $7.25 federal minimum wage boost U.S. GDP?

Bernanke confident on inflation ... we've heard that before

The U.S. Federal Reserve has an important job for its top dog: be able to say with a straight face that it will be able to control inflation. Bonus points are available if you can claim the ability to do this over the long-term. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke showcased his skills yesterday, claiming that the Fed has everything at its disposal needed to stem inflation for the next few years.

Specifically, he laid out five ways that the Federal Reserve can keep money supply and inflation from spiking, with interest rate management the primary tool. It looks like he's trying to get out in front of inflation concerns early, but only time will tell if he can deliver the goods. For now, keeping inflation contained remains a "top priority."

Continue reading Bernanke confident on inflation ... we've heard that before

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Last updated: November 08, 2009: 03:15 PM

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