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An infrastructure play that's still really cheap

Not all infrastructure plays are created equal. What has been a fabulous trend to ride since the lows of November has left a few players behind. One of those is Manitowoc Company (NYSE: MTW).

Granted MTW has improved off it lows, but it has not shared the same momentum heading into 2009 as others. Shares MTW sold off to the tune of 12% Thursday and lost another 3% on Friday.

The company stated that profit will likely come in at the low end of its previously announced guidance range of $3.15 to $3.25 per share. Given that there's only a 3% difference between earning $3.15 per share and $3.25 per share, what accounts for the other 9% of today's sell-off?

The company manufactures and sells cranes: lattice-boom crawler cranes, mobile telescopic cranes, tower cranes and boom trucks for use in energy, petrochemical, industrial projects and infrastructure development such as the building of roads, bridges, commercial and residential construction, and mining and dredging.

These are just the things that will do well once the new administration passes its massive infrastructure spending bill. For whatever reason, the stock cannot ride the coattails of this expected boom to its business. MTW now forecasts earnings for '09 of just $1.35 to $1.60 per share. Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of $2.63 per share, so I take the sell-off not as an indictment of 2008 earnings, but of 2009 earnings.

These downside revisions are troubling to be sure, but do they set the table for future earnings gains?

Continue reading An infrastructure play that's still really cheap

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Last updated: November 27, 2009: 07:50 AM

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