Readers of this space know that in addition to oil / oil services, one of my preferred sectors is: infrastructure / public services. That's because despite the U.S. economic slowdown, global growth proceeds at a better-than-adequate pace, with infrastructure work playing a significant role. And with the aforementioned in mind, The Shaw Group is worth an evaluation.
The Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR) is a leading supplier of industrial piping systems, including engineering, pipe erection and construction / maintenance services.
Analysts really like the fact that Shaw Group has also positioned itself as one of the largest engineering and construction contractors for the power generation market and as a top environmental services company. Another positive: SGR's large geographic footprint.
Morgan Stanley has raised $4 billion for a fund that will invest in global infrastructure projects, including energy and transportation systems, the company announced Monday.
Morgan Stanley said the $4 billion in equity commitments exceeded the company's initial fund goal by $1.5 billion and "underscores the particular demand for infrastructure investment, and broadly, for alternative assets that generate long-term, stable cashflows."
Shares of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) gained 67 cents to $46.62 on the news on Monday at mid-day.
In a statement, Sadek Wahba, chief investment officer and global head of Morgan Stanley Infrastructure, said the fund has investments exceeding $1 billion in enterprise value to-date. Infrastructure spending boom
Economist Glen Langan said investment banks, hedge funds and other institutional investors are hoping to take advantage of the global spending boom by emerging market governments and corporations to build infrastructure, including highways/roads, ports, but also electricity, water and telecommunications facilities. Emerging markets are upgrading facilities -- and in some cases building new facilities for the first time -- to meet commercial and social needs as their economies develop.
With the super-growth in emerging economies – especially in India and China – there is likely going to be a secular trend for infrastructure. In fact, this should be the case in mature economies as well, even the US, as the infrastructure is getting fairly old and needs to be replaced.
To deal with the growing infrastructure needs, there will also be a need for substantial amounts of capital. To this end, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) announced it has formed an infrastructure fund, raising $4 billion for the fund.
Basically, these funds will focus on things like toll roads, ports, water systems, airports, parking lots and other income-generating platforms. While the upfront costs can be tough, the long-term cash flow characteristics look bright. Perhaps that's why – despite the credit crunch – these funds had little trouble getting started.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models that have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the aforementioned in mind, Caterpillar is worth a review.
Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is the world's No. 1 manufacturer in earth moving equipment and a leader in construction/agricultural equipment.
In general, analysts see CAT's 2008 revenue increasing 7-10% on strong international growth; North American revenue is expected to be flat.
Analysts also like the fact that Caterpillar is well-positioned to secure new business in emerging market economies for construction, infrastructure and land development work.
As Congressional Democrats and Bush Administration officials evaluate additional legislative ideas aimed at further stimulating the anemic U.S. economy, one proposal that could gain more traction in the months ahead concerns domestic infrastructure.
The consensus among economists is that the first economic stimulus package will provide only a modest boost (at best) to the U.S. economy, economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday. Further, if many Americans choose to save or invest their $300-$1200 tax rebate, instead of spending it or using it to pay down debt, the stimulus effect will be even less than projected.
That would leave the U.S. economy with a correcting housing sector, record-high oil prices (oil topped $113 per barrel Wednesday), a contracting job sector, an investment banking sector largely seeking to rebuild balance sheets and not lend money, and rising living costs weighing on consumer spending. In other words, Wang said, all of the classic U.S. growth engines, except exports, are likely to serve as contractionary forces through at least the first half of 2008, and most likely for considerably longer.
Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With the above in mind, U.S. Steel is worth a review.
U.S. Steel Group (NYSE: X) is the fifth largest steel producer in the world.
Analysts expect U.S. Steel's 2008 revenue to increase 13-17%, primarily stemming from acquisitions. Further, distributor inventory levels reached unsustainably low levels in 2007, in the interpretation of many analysts, and the replenishing in 2008 should benefit X.
Meanwhile, oil producer country tube/tube-related products should remain strong, and additional steel sector consolidation should help the sector regain modest pricing power. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for X are $10.87/$11.52.
The risks? Analysts remain concerned about rising raw material costs. A sustained global economic slowdown would hurt U.S. Steel's results.
The First Call mean rating for X is: Buy [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $119 [high: $134, low: $90].
Stock Analysis: U.S. Steel is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from X's shares. Note: A safer position would involve waiting for X's shares to pull back to the $110-115 range, but they may not retreat to that level. I'd consider a Sell / Stop Loss at $83.
Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models which have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Joy Global is worth a review.
Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) makes heavy equipment for the mining industry through two subsidiaries, Joy Mining Machinery and P & H Mining Equipment.
JOYG is well-positioned to benefit from two global trends that show little sign of ending: infrastructure development (which requires copper, among other commodities) and energy usage (which requires increased use of coal for electric power generation.)
Analysts like JOYG's sector-leading high-teens margins, superior management team, and revenue mix that tilts toward its lucrative aftermarket parts and service business. In addition, it appears that 2007's supply chain issues have been addressed and resolved.
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Fluor is worth a review.
Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR) is one of the world's largest engineering, procurement, construction and maintenance companies. The company oversees construction projects for a large range of industrial sectors worldwide, primarily in its core strengths: designing and building manufacturing facilities, refineries, pharmaceutical facilities, healthcare buildings, power plants, and telecommunications and transportation infrastructure.
Analysts see 20-25% revenue growth for F2008, after likely 15-18% revenue growth in F2007, driven by strong demand for oil and natural gas projects.
What's the new president - - Republican or Democrat -- likely to face after taking the oath of office in 2009?
Daunting fiscal problems -- and right at a time when Congress may have to consider more fiscal stimulus to jump-start the U.S. economy, one economist observed.
The biggest problem, economist Glen Langan said, will be the federal government's budget deficit. The United States is on-track to record a $200 billion deficit in Fiscal 2009 and a $241 billion in Fiscal 2010 -- and that's if the U.S. economy doesn't fall into a recession, Langan said, citing Congressional Budget Office data.
"The baseline CBO projections present a large budgetary task for the new president, but by itself it's not an impossible one, absent a major recession. The problem is there's no money available to tackle any other problems, including ones a Democratic president would address -- health care, energy policy, education and infrastructure. And don't forget the Iraq War, anti-terrorism efforts, and potential mortgage assistance programs," Langan said. "If there aren't changes to the tax code, given the current revenue structure and tax rates,to say the next president's hands are tied regarding new programs, would be an understatement."
The Obama proposal would invest money over 10 years in two programs, the largest of which would be a $150 billion effort to create 5 million "green collar" jobs to develop more-environmentally friendly energy sources.
The remaining $60 billion would fund a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to rebuild the nation's highways, bridges, airports and other public facilities. Obama said the construction fund would create nearly 2 million jobs, many of them in construction directly - - a sector hard-hit by the housing sector's correction - - the nation's most severe housing slump in more than 20 years.
Rival Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, called Obama's effort unoriginal. Neera Tanden, Clinton's policy director, said Obama was offering ideas Clinton proposed months ago. "Voters may ask themselves that if Senator Obama cannot produce his own ideas on the campaign trail, how will he solve new problems as president?" Tanden said in a memo e-mailed to reporters, The Associated Press reported.
Furthermore, the Republican National Committee, which seeks to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal, included Obama's plan on its 'Obama Spend-O-Meter.' The Republicans assert that Obama's announced programs would add $850 billion in federal spending over four years, including health care, education, national service and foreign aid programs, among others. The RNC's web site did not break down the asserted total by year, but economist Steve Affinito told BloggingStocks Wednesday, assuming equal, annual appropriations of $212.5 billion, the total would not be an unreasonable nor an unwarranted outlay, from an economic standpoint, in his interpretation.
"I don't know where the RNC obtained its $850 billion total, but for the sake of argument, even it was $220 billion per year, that's fairly modest, given the services it includes, including universal health insurance," Affinito said. "Also, given the current state of the economy we may find we may need another $150-$200 billion economic stimulus this year, just to keep the economy growing. So in that regard, Sen. Obama's proposal is insinc with the times and a net positive for the U.S. economy."
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Terex is worth an evaluation.
Terex Corporation (NYSE: TEX) manufactures equipment for use in the construction, infrastructure, and surface mining industries.
Analysts like TEX's international crane business, which should register strong revenue growth, due to the ongoing infrastructure boom in Asia and the Middle East. Analysts also see solid demand for material processing and mining equipment in the immediate years ahead.
Readers of this space know that the preferred sectors include oil services and infrastructure stocks, and when one can combine the two, it's like a double header at Yankee Stadium (or two chamber concerts at Lincoln Center). Foster Wheeler fits the aforementioned bill.
Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) provides design, engineering, procurement, construction, and project management services for oil/natural gas processing facilities. The company also designs and builds steam generating and auxiliary equipment for electric power generating stations and industrial markets around the world.
Analysts expect 2007 revenue to increase a remarkable 35%-40%, with a 20%-25% gain seen for 2008 on continued, strong Asia-Pacific and Middle East capital spending. Further, increasing demand for FWLT's preferred power generation system adds to the mix. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates FWLT for are $5.92/$7.00.
The risks: A slowdown in Europe (more than 50% of revenue) or emerging market demand with hurt FWLT's results. Analysts also have their eye on the appearance of possible supply/labor shortages down the road.
The First Call mean rating for FLWT is: Buy. [5 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $176.00. [high: $190, low: $150.]
Stock Analysis: Foster Wheeler is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from FWLT's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you to purchase shares in this company: $95.
DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
I read a quote in an article recently which stated, "What Wall Street is about is smart guys thinking about ways to make money from dumb ones." That quote is attributed to one John E. Fitzgibbon, the publisher of an online newsletter, in an article from Eric Dash via The New York Times. While Mr. Fitzgibbon's remark might validate special investing skill on the part of some smart and timely investors, I take exception to the notion that all those investors who lost money in the markets over the past year are the dumb ones.
The question now is, where is the smart money headed?
Every once in a while there's a compelling research report issued in the Concrete Canyon that goes virtually unnoticed. Wall Street, so often caught up in the mood of the market 'right now,' sometimes drifts past data and fails to fully-publicize information that reveals fertile ground and investment opportunities.
The report, entitled "Infrastructure: A Global Opportunity for Investors" notes that $41 trillion will be needed to modernize urban water, electricity, and transportation systems globally, during the 2005-2030 period, according to an estimate by Booz Allen Hamilton. In the United States, the figure is $1.6 trillion, according to research by the American Society of Civil Engineers. There are two distinct but massive infrastructure tasks: in emerging markets, a massive build-out to support growth; in the United States and the developed world, a focus on repair and replacement, according to U.S. Global Investors.
Most transportation officials agree that the United States' transportation infrastructure - - highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems - - is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's transportation needs of the 21st century.
The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth a review.
Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern U.S. and Canada, operating a 21,000-mile rail network. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.